Crude Oil Market Analysis Report

2025-08-27 23:49

Table of Contents

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.22 $1.58
WTI: $63.25 $1.55
Spread: $3.97 (Brent premium of $3.97)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,445
Weekly Change: 21,420

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $63.64
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.41

MA(20): $64.23

Current Price is 63.64, 9 day MA 63.41, 20 day MA 64.23

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.7441

Signal: -0.8297

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.77

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.77 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 9,428

Avg (20d): 238,308

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 53.8

%D: 51.53

Stochastic %K: 53.8, %D: 51.53. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.17

+DI: 17.06

-DI: 18.43

ADX: 14.17 (+DI: 17.06, -DI: 18.43). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -46.2

Williams %R: -46.2 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 67.51

Middle: 64.23

Lower: 60.95

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 67.51, Middle: 64.23, Lower: 60.95

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13439.0 13382.0 13400.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6234.0 6497.0 6652.0 6377.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3810.0 4372.0 4045.0 4055.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16880.0 17208.0 16689.0 16568.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2424.0 2125.0 2607.0 2322.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418292.0 420684.0 426029.0 422157.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662919.0 1666537.0 1658445.0 1641455.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 222334.0 223570.0 220597.0 216760.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 114242.0 116028.0 122811.0 117571.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $67.22, change $-1.58. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $63.25, change $-1.55. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.97 (Brent premium of $3.97). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.22
1.58
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$63.25
1.55
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.97
Brent premium of $3.97

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC exhibits a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, acknowledging challenges in demand and supply dynamics while maintaining a focus on stability and growth.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth forecasts despite minor revisions.
  • Stable world oil demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026.
  • Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and product market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average March data
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on ensuring market stability amidst fluctuating prices and varying demand forecasts. The organization is committed to monitoring production levels and adjusting strategies to support a balanced oil market while addressing the challenges posed by non-OPEC supply growth.

Direct Quotes

"The demand for DoC crude has been revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."
"Despite the challenges in the market, we remain optimistic about the long-term growth of oil demand."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-19

Managed Money

27,445
Change: -21,420
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

297,794
Change: -2,118
15.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-438,348
Change: +3,854
-22.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,922,821
Change: -88,138

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-19

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,922,821 contracts (-88,138)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,445 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -21,420 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,794 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -438,348 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 53
Last Updated: 2025-08-27 23:49:05

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (7 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Geopolitical (7 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.09
Daily: -0.14 (-0.14%)
Weekly: -0.53 (-0.54%)

US_10Y

4.24
Daily: -0.02 (-0.47%)
Weekly: -0.09 (-2.12%)

SP500

6481.4
Daily: 15.46 (0.24%)
Weekly: 111.23 (1.75%)

VIX

14.85
Daily: 0.23 (1.57%)
Weekly: -1.75 (-10.54%)

GOLD

3447.3
Daily: 58.7 (1.73%)
Weekly: 110.4 (3.31%)

COPPER

4.42
Daily: -0.03 (-0.74%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.32%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.64
Closest Support: $61.94 2.67% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.82 3.43% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.94 Support
0.236 $65.82 Resistance
0.382 $68.23
0.5 $70.17
0.618 $72.11
0.786 $74.88
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $82.88
1.618 $88.57
2.0 $94.86
2.618 $105.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.15
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-27 23:49:07
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.09%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-28 $64.09 $62.04 $66.15
2025-08-29 $64.1 $62.05 $66.15
2025-08-30 $64.05 $62.0 $66.11
2025-08-31 $64.12 $62.06 $66.17
2025-09-01 $64.07 $62.02 $66.12

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-08-28), reaching $64.09.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-28 and 2025-09-01.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with $68.98/b for OPEC Reference Basket and $66.46/b for ICE Brent, signals potential bearish momentum in the near term. The support levels to watch are around $62.96/b for WTI, while resistance may be found at approximately $70/b. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $3.50/b suggests a convergence in market dynamics, indicating potential opportunities for arbitrage. Traders should remain alert for volatility as managed money positioning shows a weakening bullish sentiment, with a significant decrease in net positions. This could foreshadow further price adjustments.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of the supply-demand balance, with global oil demand expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026. However, the slight downward revision in non-DoC liquids supply growth could benefit pricing stability. With OECD commercial crude inventories at 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average, the current inventory levels may warrant a review of hedging strategies to mitigate risks from fluctuating prices. The overall market sentiment remains bullish, but producers should remain cautious of geopolitical risks that could impact supply reliability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should brace for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices currently at $63.25/b and $67.22/b respectively. The geopolitical tensions and the current inventory levels may introduce supply reliability risks, especially in light of the declining US crude imports and the mixed performance in refining margins across regions. As product exports remain strong, consumers may want to consider procurement strategies that hedge against price volatility while ensuring a stable supply chain.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by several factors, including a bearish sentiment in the short term due to recent price declines. The fundamental balance indicates a cautious outlook with global demand growth steady at 1.3 mb/d while supply from non-DoC countries is showing signs of slowing growth. The Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing adjustments in the market, and the positioning data indicates a weakening bullish sentiment among managed money traders. Analysts should monitor these trends closely as they could signal shifts in market dynamics and price volatility moving forward.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-27 23:46:41 Length: 480 chars
Crude Oil is currently hovering around the $63.80 mark, consolidating before a potential move. Recent signals indicate a bearish outlook, driven by soft diesel stocks, OPEC+ increased output, and softening demand—despite some unexpected resilience. Analysts are anticipating a retest of $61.64, with a potential drop into the $50s. However, long-term projections for 2026 suggest a recovery in prices. Key market movements include recent inventory draws and a cautious demand o...

Energy Markets Report - Generated on 2025-08-27 23:49

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