Crude Oil Radar

2025-08-28 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 08/28/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-28 23:46:32 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices are currently hovering around the $63.80 mark, consolidating amid bearish signals. The softer diesel stock levels, combined with OPEC+'s additional barrels and slightly improved demand, suggest a potential retest of $61.64, with expectations of further declines into the $50s. Despite the current downtrend, a bullish outlook is predicted for 2026, indicating long-term strength. Keep an eye on market reactions to U.S. inflation data, which could influence sh...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.05 $0.83
WTI: $64.15 $0.9
Spread: $3.9 (Brent premium of $3.90)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,445
Weekly Change: 21,420

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $64.19
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.62

MA(20): $64.0

Current Price is 64.19, 9 day MA 63.62, 20 day MA 64.0

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.626

Signal: -0.7824

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.17

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.17 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,914

Avg (20d): 235,504

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 71.2

%D: 60.82

Stochastic %K: 71.2, %D: 60.82. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.57

+DI: 17.04

-DI: 18.38

ADX: 13.57 (+DI: 17.04, -DI: 18.38). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -28.8

Williams %R: -28.8 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 66.33

Middle: 64.0

Lower: 61.67

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 66.33, Middle: 64.0, Lower: 61.67

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13439.0 13382.0 13400.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6234.0 6497.0 6652.0 6377.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3810.0 4372.0 4045.0 4055.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16880.0 17208.0 16689.0 16568.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2424.0 2125.0 2607.0 2322.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418292.0 420684.0 426029.0 422157.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662919.0 1666537.0 1658445.0 1641455.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 222334.0 223570.0 220597.0 216760.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 114242.0 116028.0 122811.0 117571.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $68.05, change $+0.83. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.15, change $+0.9. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.9 (Brent premium of $3.90). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.05
0.83
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$64.15
0.9
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.9
Brent premium of $3.90

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady global economic growth and a balanced outlook for oil demand and supply.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Forecasted growth in non-OPEC liquids supply, with key contributors identified.
  • Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market stability.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decreased by 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to ensure a balanced market, particularly in light of the evolving global economic landscape.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-19

Managed Money

27,445
Change: -21,420
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

297,794
Change: -2,118
15.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-438,348
Change: +3,854
-22.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,922,821
Change: -88,138

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-19

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,922,821 contracts (-88,138)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,445 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -21,420 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,794 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -438,348 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 65
Last Updated: 2025-08-28 23:48:49

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (9 articles)

Demand (4 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (9 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.0
Daily: -0.23 (-0.24%)
Weekly: 0.28 (0.28%)

US_10Y

4.21
Daily: -0.03 (-0.73%)
Weekly: -0.05 (-1.24%)

SP500

6501.86
Daily: 20.46 (0.32%)
Weekly: 34.95 (0.54%)

VIX

14.43
Daily: -0.42 (-2.83%)
Weekly: 0.21 (1.48%)

GOLD

3471.9
Daily: 67.3 (1.98%)
Weekly: 97.5 (2.89%)

COPPER

4.55
Daily: 0.14 (3.09%)
Weekly: 0.1 (2.33%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.19
Closest Support: $61.94 3.51% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.82 2.54% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.94 Support
0.236 $65.82 Resistance
0.382 $68.23
0.5 $70.17
0.618 $72.11
0.786 $74.88
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $82.88
1.618 $88.57
2.0 $94.86
2.618 $105.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.6
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-28 23:48:51
Next Trading Day: UP 0.0%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-29 $64.6 $62.54 $66.67
2025-08-30 $64.56 $62.49 $66.62
2025-08-31 $64.61 $62.54 $66.67
2025-09-01 $64.55 $62.48 $66.61
2025-09-02 $64.53 $62.46 $66.59

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.00% for the next trading day (2025-08-29), reaching $64.60.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-29 and 2025-09-02.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the $68.98 for OPEC Reference Basket and $66.46 for ICE Brent, indicates a bearish sentiment in the short term. The support levels can be observed around the recent lows, while the resistance levels may be tested at the $70 mark. The narrowing of the $3.50 Brent-WTI spread suggests a convergence in pricing dynamics, reflecting adjustments in global supply and demand. Traders should watch for volatility around inventory reports, as current inventory levels are below the 2015-2019 average, which could lead to short-term trading opportunities amidst fluctuating prices.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current balance of supply and demand indicates a modest growth in global oil demand projected at 1.3 mb/d for both 2025 and 2026. Producers should consider adjusting production plans accordingly, especially given the recent decline in DoC crude production levels. Hedging strategies may need to be revisited in light of current market sentiment, which remains bearish but could shift based on geopolitical developments and inventory adjustments. The impact of inventory levels is crucial, as a significant increase in crude stocks could further pressure prices.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude oil prices settling around $66.46 for Brent, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The risk of supply reliability remains, especially in light of geopolitical tensions and the recent volatility in inventory levels. The bearish sentiment in the market may provide opportunities for procurement at lower costs, but the ongoing inventory adjustments signal that careful monitoring is essential. Consideration for hedging strategies may be prudent to mitigate risks associated with price swings.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish and bullish factors. On one hand, the decline in prices and inventory levels below historical averages signal potential weakness. On the other hand, the expected growth in demand and tightening supply from DoC countries suggest a fundamental balance that could stabilize prices in the medium term. Analysts should focus on the implications of geopolitical events and the evolving sentiment reflected in CFTC positioning, which shows a weakening bullish sentiment among managed money traders. This could indicate an approaching shift in market dynamics worth monitoring closely.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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