Crude Oil Radar

2025-08-29 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 08/29/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-29 23:46:46 Length: 480 chars
Crude Oil is currently hovering around the $63.80 mark, facing downward pressure amid concerns over energy demand and rising supply from OPEC+. Diesel stocks are softening, and a retest of $61.64 is expected before potentially dropping into the $50s. Recent data indicates that WTI posted its first monthly loss in four months, highlighting the bearish sentiment. However, long-term projections suggest a potential price recovery by 2026. Keep an eye on demand trends and geopo...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.62 $0.57
WTI: $64.6 $0.45
Spread: $4.02 (Brent premium of $4.02)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 24,621
Weekly Change: 2,824

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $64.01
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.73

MA(20): $63.85

Current Price is 64.01, 9 day MA 63.73, 20 day MA 63.85

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.5473

Signal: -0.7302

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.43

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.43 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 163,988

Avg (20d): 236,013

Ratio: 0.69

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 65.51

%D: 73.21

Stochastic %K: 65.51, %D: 73.21. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.39

+DI: 17.08

-DI: 16.98

ADX: 12.39 (+DI: 17.08, -DI: 16.98). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -34.49

Williams %R: -34.49 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 65.64

Middle: 63.85

Lower: 62.07

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.64, Middle: 63.85, Lower: 62.07

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13439.0 13382.0 13400.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6234.0 6497.0 6652.0 6377.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3810.0 4372.0 4045.0 4055.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16880.0 17208.0 16689.0 16568.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2424.0 2125.0 2607.0 2322.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418292.0 420684.0 426029.0 422157.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662919.0 1666537.0 1658445.0 1641455.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 222334.0 223570.0 220597.0 216760.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 114242.0 116028.0 122811.0 117571.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $68.62, change $+0.57. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.6, change $+0.45. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.02 (Brent premium of $4.02). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.62
0.57
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$64.6
0.45
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.02
Brent premium of $4.02

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, highlighting steady global economic growth and a slight upward revision in demand for OPEC crude.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with minor adjustments in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refinery margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average March data
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability amid fluctuating prices and evolving demand dynamics. The organization is closely monitoring global economic indicators and adjusting its forecasts to ensure a balanced supply-demand equation in the oil market.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for OPEC's market position."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-26

Managed Money

24,621
Change: -2,824
1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

298,128
Change: +334
15.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-428,999
Change: +9,349
-22.4% of OI

Open Interest

1,912,554
Change: -10,267

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-26

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,912,554 contracts (-10,267)

Managed Money Net Position: 24,621 contracts (1.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -2,824 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 298,128 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -428,999 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 65
Last Updated: 2025-08-29 23:49:22

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (10 articles)

Demand (5 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (4 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.86
Daily: 0.05 (0.05%)
Weekly: -0.57 (-0.58%)

US_10Y

4.23
Daily: 0.02 (0.48%)
Weekly: -0.05 (-1.12%)

SP500

6460.26
Daily: -41.6 (-0.64%)
Weekly: 20.94 (0.33%)

VIX

15.36
Daily: 0.93 (6.44%)
Weekly: 0.57 (3.85%)

GOLD

3516.1
Daily: 84.3 (2.46%)
Weekly: 142.3 (4.22%)

COPPER

4.59
Daily: 0.12 (2.72%)
Weekly: 0.12 (2.65%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.01
Closest Support: $61.94 3.23% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.82 2.83% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.94 Support
0.236 $65.82 Resistance
0.382 $68.23
0.5 $70.17
0.618 $72.11
0.786 $74.88
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $82.88
1.618 $88.57
2.0 $94.86
2.618 $105.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.6
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-29 23:49:24
Next Trading Day: UP 0.0%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-29 $64.6 $62.54 $66.67
2025-08-30 $64.56 $62.49 $66.62
2025-08-31 $64.61 $62.54 $66.67
2025-09-01 $64.55 $62.48 $66.61
2025-09-02 $64.52 $62.46 $66.59

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.00% for the next trading day (2025-08-29), reaching $64.60.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-29 and 2025-09-02.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market is reflected in the decline of the OPEC Reference Basket and other benchmarks, with the $68.98 average for April. The $4.02 Brent-WTI spread indicates a neutral outlook, influenced by supply-demand dynamics and transportation costs.

Traders should monitor the support levels around $62.00 for WTI and $66.00 for Brent, as these levels could provide opportunities for short-term trading. The narrowing spread suggests potential for volatility, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate or if inventory levels fluctuate significantly.

Overall, the market is characterized by risks related to demand concerns and upcoming supply boosts, which may create trading opportunities in the short term.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of falling $62.96 WTI prices on their production planning and hedging strategies. With global oil supply projected to grow by 0.8 mb/d in 2025, there is a potential oversupply risk that could further pressure prices.

The increase in OECD commercial crude inventories, which rose by 21.4 mb in March, indicates a need for producers to assess their output levels to avoid excess inventory buildup. The bearish sentiment reflected in news articles highlights the need for caution in production increases.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI currently at $64.60 and Brent at $68.62. The supply reliability risks from geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventories could impact procurement strategies.

With global refinery margins showing signs of recovery in the USGC but declining in Europe and Asia, consumers may want to evaluate their hedging strategies to mitigate potential price increases, especially if demand forecasts remain low.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current Crude Oil market is influenced by several bearish factors, including declining prices across major benchmarks and supply-demand imbalances. The CFTC data suggests that Managed Money positioning is weakening, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment.

Analysts should closely monitor the fundamental balance of supply and demand, particularly the upward revision of demand for DoC crude to 42.6 mb/d. This could signal a tightening market if supply growth does not keep pace. The overall outlook remains cautious, with geopolitical risks and economic forecasts suggesting potential volatility in the near term.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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