Crude Oil Radar

2025-08-30 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 08/30/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-30 23:46:34 Length: 480 chars
Crude Oil is currently hovering around the $63.80 level, consolidating amidst mixed signals. Recent articles highlight a bearish sentiment due to soft diesel stock levels, OPEC+ supply increases, and demand concerns, prompting expectations of a potential drop to $61.64 before testing the $50s. Despite this short-term caution, a longer-term bullish outlook for 2026 indicates potential price strength. Key variables to watch include demand trends and geopolitical factors that...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.12 $0.5
WTI: $64.01 $0.59
Spread: $4.11 (Brent premium of $4.11)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 24,621
Weekly Change: 2,824

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $64.01
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.73

MA(20): $63.85

Current Price is 64.01, 9 day MA 63.73, 20 day MA 63.85

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.5473

Signal: -0.7302

Days since crossover: 5

MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.43

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.43 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 208,931

Avg (20d): 238,261

Ratio: 0.88

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 65.51

%D: 73.21

Stochastic %K: 65.51, %D: 73.21. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.39

+DI: 17.08

-DI: 16.98

ADX: 12.39 (+DI: 17.08, -DI: 16.98). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -34.49

Williams %R: -34.49 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 65.64

Middle: 63.85

Lower: 62.07

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.64, Middle: 63.85, Lower: 62.07

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13439.0 13382.0 13400.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6234.0 6497.0 6652.0 6377.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3810.0 4372.0 4045.0 4055.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16880.0 17208.0 16689.0 16568.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2424.0 2125.0 2607.0 2322.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418292.0 420684.0 426029.0 422157.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662919.0 1666537.0 1658445.0 1641455.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 222334.0 223570.0 220597.0 216760.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 114242.0 116028.0 122811.0 117571.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $68.12, change $-0.5. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.01, change $-0.59. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.11 (Brent premium of $4.11). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.12
0.5
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$64.01
0.59
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.11
Brent premium of $4.11

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious as it navigates a challenging market environment characterized by fluctuating oil prices and mixed economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth with slight downward revisions for major economies.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand projected for 2025 and 2026.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply growth revised down, indicating potential supply challenges.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from previous assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from previous assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a cautious outlook on market stability, acknowledging the challenges posed by fluctuating demand and supply dynamics. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to ensure a balanced market and mitigate volatility.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook remains uncertain, and we must remain vigilant to ensure stability." - OPEC Official

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-26

Managed Money

24,621
Change: -2,824
1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

298,128
Change: +334
15.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-428,999
Change: +9,349
-22.4% of OI

Open Interest

1,912,554
Change: -10,267

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-26

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,912,554 contracts (-10,267)

Managed Money Net Position: 24,621 contracts (1.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -2,824 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 298,128 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -428,999 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 47
Last Updated: 2025-08-30 23:49:04

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (6 articles)

Demand (5 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.77
Daily: -0.04 (-0.04%)
Weekly: -0.66 (-0.67%)

US_10Y

4.23
Daily: 0.02 (0.48%)
Weekly: -0.05 (-1.12%)

SP500

6460.26
Daily: -41.6 (-0.64%)
Weekly: 20.94 (0.33%)

VIX

15.36
Daily: 0.93 (6.44%)
Weekly: 0.57 (3.85%)

GOLD

3473.7
Daily: 41.9 (1.22%)
Weekly: 99.9 (2.96%)

COPPER

4.52
Daily: 0.05 (1.23%)
Weekly: 0.05 (1.16%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.01
Closest Support: $61.94 3.23% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.82 2.83% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.94 Support
0.236 $65.82 Resistance
0.382 $68.23
0.5 $70.17
0.618 $72.11
0.786 $74.88
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $82.88
1.618 $88.57
2.0 $94.86
2.618 $105.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.01
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-30 23:49:07
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.07%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-30 $63.97 $61.9 $66.04
2025-08-31 $64.02 $61.94 $66.09
2025-09-01 $63.97 $61.9 $66.04
2025-09-02 $63.96 $61.89 $66.04
2025-09-03 $64.0 $61.92 $66.07

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2025-08-30), reaching $63.97.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-30 and 2025-09-03.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with $68.12 for Brent and $64.01 for WTI, indicates a potential bearish sentiment in the short term. The $68.50 level may serve as a resistance point, while the $62.00 level could act as a support threshold. The narrowing of the Brent-WTI spread to $4.11 reflects shifting dynamics in supply and demand, particularly in the U.S. market. Traders should remain vigilant for volatility, especially given the overall market sentiment score of -0.600 and the potential for geopolitical tensions impacting prices.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market conditions suggest that producers should consider adjusting their production planning in response to the upward revisions in crude demand, which is expected to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2025. However, with bearish market sentiment and increasing inventories, particularly a 21.4 mb rise in crude stocks, hedging strategies may become crucial to mitigate price risks. The decline in margins in key refining markets also necessitates a strategic approach to manage costs effectively.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices currently at $64.01 and $68.12, respectively. The geopolitical landscape poses a reliability risk for supply chains, especially with the bearish sentiment reflected in recent news. Additionally, the decline in U.S. crude imports and the steady demand from non-OECD countries suggest careful monitoring of procurement strategies and potential hedging against price volatility.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and moderate demand growth. Key driving factors include a forecasted increase in global oil demand by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, juxtaposed with rising inventories and a bearish news sentiment score of -0.600. The positioning data indicates a weakening bullish sentiment among managed money traders, suggesting caution in forecasting price movements. Analysts should focus on the interplay between supply adjustments from OPEC and geopolitical developments that could shift the market outlook.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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