Crude Oil Radar

2025-08-31 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 08/31/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-08-31 23:46:31 Length: 480 chars
Crude Oil is currently hovering around the $63.80 mark, consolidating as signals indicate a potential downward trend. With diesel stock softness and OPEC+ increasing supply, demand remains a concern despite being higher than expected. A retest of $61.64 seems likely, possibly leading to a drop into the $50s. Looking ahead to 2026, optimism suggests a long-term price strength. Keep an eye on supply dynamics and demand trends to navigate this fluctuating market landscape eff...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.12 $0.5
WTI: $64.01 $0.59
Spread: $4.11 (Brent premium of $4.11)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 24,621
Weekly Change: 2,824

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $64.01
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.91

MA(20): $63.74

Current Price is 64.01, 9 day MA 63.91, 20 day MA 63.74

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.505

Signal: -0.6851

Days since crossover: 6

MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.43

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.43 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 4,957

Avg (20d): 224,640

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 65.51

%D: 71.73

Stochastic %K: 65.51, %D: 71.73. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 11.71

+DI: 16.76

-DI: 17.74

ADX: 11.71 (+DI: 16.76, -DI: 17.74). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -34.49

Williams %R: -34.49 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 65.13

Middle: 63.74

Lower: 62.35

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.13, Middle: 63.74, Lower: 62.35

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current (BCFD) Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13439.0 13382.0 13400.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6234.0 6497.0 6652.0 6377.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3810.0 4372.0 4045.0 4055.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16880.0 17208.0 16689.0 16568.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2424.0 2125.0 2607.0 2322.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418292.0 420684.0 426029.0 422157.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662919.0 1666537.0 1658445.0 1641455.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 222334.0 223570.0 220597.0 216760.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 114242.0 116028.0 122811.0 117571.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $68.12, change $-0.5. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.01, change $-0.59. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.11 (Brent premium of $4.11). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.12
0.5
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$64.01
0.59
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.11
Brent premium of $4.11

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious outlook on the oil market, acknowledging ongoing challenges while highlighting some positive trends in demand and supply dynamics.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite some downward revisions.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD regions.
  • Non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecast revised down.
  • Variability in refining margins and tanker freight rates.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Compliance Levels N/A Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics, while also adjusting production levels as necessary to respond to changing market conditions. The organization emphasizes the importance of cooperation among member countries to achieve these goals.

Direct Quotes

"The market outlook reflects a mix of challenges and opportunities, requiring a balanced approach to production and supply management."
"We must remain vigilant and responsive to the evolving economic landscape to ensure sustained growth in oil demand."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-26

Managed Money

24,621
Change: -2,824
1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

298,128
Change: +334
15.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-428,999
Change: +9,349
-22.4% of OI

Open Interest

1,912,554
Change: -10,267

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-26

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,912,554 contracts (-10,267)

Managed Money Net Position: 24,621 contracts (1.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -2,824 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 298,128 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -428,999 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 32
Last Updated: 2025-08-31 23:48:59

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.69
Daily: -0.08 (-0.08%)
Weekly: -0.54 (-0.55%)

US_10Y

4.23
Daily: 0.02 (0.48%)
Weekly: -0.05 (-1.12%)

SP500

6460.26
Daily: -41.6 (-0.64%)
Weekly: 20.94 (0.33%)

VIX

15.36
Daily: 0.93 (6.44%)
Weekly: 0.57 (3.85%)

GOLD

3516.1
Daily: 42.4 (1.22%)
Weekly: 127.5 (3.76%)

COPPER

4.59
Daily: 0.07 (1.59%)
Weekly: 0.14 (3.15%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $64.01
Closest Support: $61.94 3.23% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.82 2.83% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.94 Support
0.236 $65.82 Resistance
0.382 $68.23
0.5 $70.17
0.618 $72.11
0.786 $74.88
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $82.88
1.618 $88.57
2.0 $94.86
2.618 $105.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.01
Forecast Generated: 2025-08-31 23:49:02
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.07%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-08-30 $63.96 $61.89 $66.04
2025-08-31 $64.02 $61.94 $66.09
2025-09-01 $63.97 $61.9 $66.04
2025-09-02 $63.96 $61.89 $66.03
2025-09-03 $63.99 $61.92 $66.07

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2025-08-30), reaching $63.96.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-08-30 and 2025-09-03.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with $68.12 for Brent and $64.01 for WTI, suggests a bearish sentiment in the market. The Brent-WTI spread of $4.11 indicates ongoing divergence in supply-demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets, which may present short-term trading opportunities.

The support levels for Brent and WTI can be observed around $66.00 and $62.00 respectively, while resistance may form around $70.00 for Brent and $66.00 for WTI. Traders should remain cautious of volatility, particularly given the negative news sentiment score of -0.700 and the recent positioning changes in the CFTC data, indicating a weakening bullish sentiment among managed money traders.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should closely monitor the impact of declining inventory levels and the balance of supply and demand. The forecast indicates that demand for DoC crude is projected to rise to 42.6 mb/d in 2025, which could support production planning. However, the bearish sentiment and revised down supply growth from non-DoC countries may necessitate a reevaluation of hedging strategies.

With crude stocks in OECD rising to 2,740 mb, producers should consider adjusting production rates to align with market conditions, especially given the potential for oversupply as indicated by the recent price trends and market sentiment.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI currently at $64.01 and Brent at $68.12. The geopolitical risks and the current inventory levels may affect supply reliability, necessitating a proactive approach to procurement and hedging strategies.

Given the negative news sentiment and a steady decline in refinery margins in Europe, consumers in the refining sector should assess their operational costs and consider adjusting their procurement strategies to mitigate the impact of rising prices or supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by declining prices and increasing inventories. The fundamental outlook shows a modest demand increase of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, but this is countered by a downward revision in supply growth from non-DoC countries.

Analysts should focus on the implications of the negative news sentiment and the shifting positioning in the CFTC data, which reflects a potential shift in market dynamics. The ongoing geopolitical concerns and economic forecasts may also influence future price movements, warranting close monitoring for any shifts in market sentiment or demand forecasts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only

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