Crude Oil Radar

2025-09-02 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/02/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-02 23:46:36 Length: 480 chars
Crude Oil is currently hovering around the $63.80 mark, consolidating as signals lean bearish. With diesel stock softness, OPEC+ adding barrels, and demand slightly below expectations, a retest of $61.64 seems likely before a potential drop into the $50s. However, global supply tightness is providing some upward pressure. While the near-term outlook appears challenging, 2026 may bring stronger prices, hinting at a possible rebound in the long term. Keep an eye on fiscal co...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.12 $0.5
WTI: $64.01 $0.59
Spread: $4.11 (Brent premium of $4.11)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 24,621
Weekly Change: 2,824

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $65.37
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $64.06

MA(20): $63.81

Current Price is 65.37, 9 day MA 64.06, 20 day MA 63.81

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3965

Signal: -0.6634

Days since crossover: 6

MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 53.25

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 53.25 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,108

Avg (20d): 214,301

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERBOUGHT

%K: 90.74

%D: 80.14

Stochastic %K: 90.74, %D: 80.14. Signal: overbought

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.58

+DI: 21.14

-DI: 15.63

ADX: 12.58 (+DI: 21.14, -DI: 15.63). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERBOUGHT

Value: -9.26

Williams %R: -9.26 (overbought)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT UPPER

Upper: 65.37

Middle: 63.81

Lower: 62.25

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout upper. Upper: 65.37, Middle: 63.81, Lower: 62.25

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13439.0 13382.0 13400.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6234.0 6497.0 6652.0 6377.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3810.0 4372.0 4045.0 4055.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16880.0 17208.0 16689.0 16568.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2424.0 2125.0 2607.0 2322.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 418292.0 420684.0 426029.0 422157.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1662919.0 1666537.0 1658445.0 1641455.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 222334.0 223570.0 220597.0 216760.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 114242.0 116028.0 122811.0 117571.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $68.12, change $-0.5. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.01, change $-0.59. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.11 (Brent premium of $4.11). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.12
0.5
(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$64.01
0.59
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.11
Brent premium of $4.11

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC's sentiment appears cautious yet optimistic about the short-term market outlook, despite recent price declines and mixed economic forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth, with slight revisions in forecasts.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Forecasted growth in non-OPEC liquids supply, with key contributors identified.
  • Mixed performance in refining margins and product markets across regions.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth 2025 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth 2026 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2025 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth 2026 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2025 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude 2026 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation 173 mb below 2015–2019 average As of March
Crude Oil Production (DoC countries) April 40.92 mb/d Decreased by 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC maintains a focus on market stability and is closely monitoring supply and demand dynamics. The organization is prepared to adjust production levels as necessary to support prices and ensure a balanced market, particularly in light of the mixed economic signals and fluctuating demand forecasts.

Direct Quotes

"The front end of the ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI and GME Oman forward curves strengthened further in April, reflecting traders’ optimism about the market outlook in the short-term."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, indicating a positive adjustment in market expectations."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-08-26

Managed Money

24,621
Change: -2,824
1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

298,128
Change: +334
15.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-428,999
Change: +9,349
-22.4% of OI

Open Interest

1,912,554
Change: -10,267

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-26

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,912,554 contracts (-10,267)

Managed Money Net Position: 24,621 contracts (1.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -2,824 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 298,128 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -428,999 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 29
Last Updated: 2025-09-02 23:49:06

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (4 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.48
Daily: 0.71 (0.73%)
Weekly: 0.25 (0.26%)

US_10Y

4.28
Daily: 0.05 (1.18%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.45%)

SP500

6415.54
Daily: -44.72 (-0.69%)
Weekly: -50.4 (-0.78%)

VIX

17.17
Daily: 1.81 (11.78%)
Weekly: 2.55 (17.44%)

GOLD

3596.7
Daily: 123.0 (3.54%)
Weekly: 208.1 (6.14%)

COPPER

4.62
Daily: 0.1 (2.26%)
Weekly: 0.17 (3.82%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.37
Closest Support: $61.94 5.25% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.82 0.69% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.94 Support
0.236 $65.82 Resistance
0.382 $68.23
0.5 $70.17
0.618 $72.11
0.786 $74.88
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $82.88
1.618 $88.57
2.0 $94.86
2.618 $105.03

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $65.59
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-02 23:49:08
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.09%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-03 $65.53 $63.43 $67.64
2025-09-04 $65.52 $63.42 $67.62
2025-09-05 $65.52 $63.41 $67.62
2025-09-06 $65.48 $63.37 $67.58
2025-09-07 $65.39 $63.28 $67.49

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-09-03), reaching $65.53.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-03 and 2025-09-07.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics suggest bullish sentiment, as indicated by a sentiment score of +0.600. However, the managed money net position has decreased, reflecting potential weakening in bullish momentum.

The Brent-WTI spread currently stands at $4.11, indicating a narrowing trend that may suggest convergence in pricing dynamics. Traders should monitor for potential resistance levels around $68.12 for Brent and $64.01 for WTI, with Fibonacci retracement levels providing insight into potential price reversals.

Short-term opportunities may arise from volatility linked to geopolitical tensions, particularly concerning supply disruptions in regions like Russia.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil demand expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, producers should consider strategic adjustments in production planning to align with this growth. The decline in crude stocks by 21.4 mb, m-o-m, suggests tightening supply conditions which may support pricing.

Hedging strategies should be evaluated, particularly in light of market sentiment and the current prices of $68.12 for Brent and $64.01 for WTI. Monitoring inventory levels will be crucial in managing operational risks.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain volatile. The recent decline in crude imports and ongoing geopolitical tensions may pose risks to supply reliability.

With the OECD commercial oil inventories slightly increasing, it is essential to consider procurement strategies that account for both price stability and supply chain reliability, particularly given the downward trend in refinery margins in Europe and Asia.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently navigating a bullish sentiment phase, bolstered by robust demand forecasts and a tightening supply outlook. The global oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d reflects steady recovery expectations, while geopolitical factors continue to influence market dynamics significantly.

However, the recent decline in managed money positioning indicates potential volatility, suggesting analysts should closely monitor shifts in sentiment and positioning for future outlook adjustments.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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