Crude Oil Radar

Published: 09/03/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Updated: 2025-09-03 23:46:57 Length: 480 chars

Crude Oil is currently consolidating around the $63.80 mark, but signals indicate a potential downward trend, with expectations for a retest of $61.64 before possibly plunging into the $50s. Recent data shows a surprise rise in US crude inventories, and concerns about supply amid OPEC+ discussions for increased production have added pressure. Despite a soft demand backdrop, long-term prospects may strengthen as we approach 2026. Traders should watch for further development...

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $68.15 $0.0

WTI: $65.59 $1.58

Spread: $2.56 (Brent premium of $2.56)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 24,621

Weekly Change: 2,824

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $63.56

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $64.13

MA(20): $63.74

Current Price is 63.56, 9 day MA 64.13, 20 day MA 63.74

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.4047

Signal: -0.6089

Days since crossover: 7

MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 46.03

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 46.03 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,587

Avg (20d): 216,334

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 35.84

%D: 63.53

Stochastic %K: 35.84, %D: 63.53. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.04

+DI: 19.91

-DI: 14.41

ADX: 13.04 (+DI: 19.91, -DI: 14.41). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -64.16

Williams %R: -64.16 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.23

Middle: 63.74

Lower: 62.25

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.23, Middle: 63.74, Lower: 62.25

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13439.0	13382.0	13400.0	12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6234.0	6497.0	6652.0	6377.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3810.0	4372.0	4045.0	4055.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16880.0	17208.0	16689.0	16568.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2424.0	2125.0	2607.0	2322.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	418292.0	420684.0	426029.0	422157.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1662919.0	1666537.0	1658445.0	1641455.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	222334.0	223570.0	220597.0	216760.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	114242.0	116028.0	122811.0	117571.67

International Price Summary

Brent crude (OCT 25) settled at $68.15, change $0.0. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $65.59, change $+1.58. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $2.56 (Brent premium of $2.56). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$68.15

0.0

(OCT 25)

WTI Crude

$65.59

1.58

(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$2.56

Brent premium of $2.56

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious yet optimistic sentiment regarding the oil market, highlighting steady demand growth amidst some downward revisions in supply forecasts.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
Steady global economic growth with minor adjustments in forecasts.
World oil demand projected to grow steadily in 2025 and 2026.
Non-OPEC liquids supply growth revised down, affecting market dynamics.
Changes in commercial oil inventories and their implications for market stability.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026)	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation	173 mb below 2015–2019 average	As of March
Compliance Levels with Production Agreements	N/A	Not Mentioned

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability through careful monitoring of supply and demand dynamics. The organization acknowledges the challenges posed by fluctuating oil prices and aims to adapt its strategies to ensure a balanced market environment.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."

"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for OPEC's market share."

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-08-26

Managed Money

24,621

Change: -2,824

1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

298,128

Change: +334

15.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-428,999

Change: +9,349

-22.4% of OI

Open Interest

1,912,554

Change: -10,267

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-26

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,912,554 contracts (-10,267)

Managed Money Net Position: 24,621 contracts (1.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -2,824 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 298,128 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -428,999 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 47

Last Updated: 2025-09-03 23:49:39

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.22

Daily: -0.18 (-0.18%)

Weekly: -0.01 (-0.01%)

US_10Y

4.21

Daily: -0.07 (-1.54%)

Weekly: -0.03 (-0.64%)

SP500

6448.26

Daily: 32.72 (0.51%)

Weekly: -33.14 (-0.51%)

VIX

16.35

Daily: -0.82 (-4.78%)

Weekly: 1.5 (10.1%)

GOLD

3589.9

Daily: 40.5 (1.14%)

Weekly: 185.3 (5.44%)

COPPER

4.58

Daily: 0.01 (0.31%)

Weekly: 0.17 (3.83%)

Current Price: $63.56

Closest Support: $61.94 2.55% below current price

Closest Resistance: $65.82 3.56% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.94 Support

0.236 $65.82 Resistance

0.382 $68.23

0.5 $70.17

0.618 $72.11

0.786 $74.88

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $82.88

1.618 $88.57

2.0 $94.86

2.618 $105.03

Current Price: $63.97

Forecast Generated: 2025-09-03 23:49:42

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.01%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-09-04	$63.96	$61.8	$66.13
2025-09-05	$63.97	$61.8	$66.13
2025-09-06	$63.96	$61.8	$66.13
2025-09-07	$63.91	$61.75	$66.07
2025-09-08	$64.01	$61.85	$66.17

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-09-04), reaching $63.96.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-04 and 2025-09-08.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment, with the Brent and WTI prices showing a decline of approximately 7% month-over-month. The narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $2.56 suggests that the market is responding to supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical factors. Traders should monitor the support levels around $62.96 for WTI and $66.46 for Brent. The short-term opportunities may arise from potential volatility driven by upcoming OPEC decisions and inventory reports.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With current bearish sentiment affecting prices, producers may need to reassess their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with falling prices. The inventory levels indicate a slight increase in crude stocks, which may impact market operations and pricing. Producers should focus on optimizing production planning, especially with a weaker demand forecast in the OECD regions, while keeping an eye on the potential for increased output from OPEC.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as crude prices remain volatile. The current Brent price at $68.15 and WTI at $65.59 indicate a bearish outlook, which could lead to lower procurement costs in the short term. However, geopolitical risks and fluctuating supply reliability, particularly from OPEC+ production decisions, could affect long-term planning and procurement strategies.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently under a bearish sentiment, influenced by declining prices and increased inventories. Key drivers include demand forecasts remaining stable in non-OECD regions while facing headwinds in OECD countries. The CFTC positioning shows a weakening bullish stance among managed money traders, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment. Analysts should closely monitor the interplay between supply adjustments from OPEC and geopolitical developments to anticipate shifts in market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.