Crude Oil Radar

Published: 09/04/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Updated: 2025-09-04 23:46:30 Length: 480 chars

Crude Oil prices are currently hovering around the $63.80 mark, facing downward momentum due to rising diesel stock levels and OPEC+ increasing output amid soft demand. Recent reports show unexpected inventory builds, contributing to a bearish sentiment. Analysts anticipate a near-term retest of $61.64 before a potential dip into the $50s. However, a long-term outlook suggests stronger prices post-2026. Keep an eye on OPEC+ decisions and inventory reports as key indicators...

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.6 $1.54

WTI: $63.97 $1.62

Spread: $3.63 (Brent premium of $3.63)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 24,621

Weekly Change: 2,824

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $63.35

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $64.15

MA(20): $63.71

Current Price is 63.35, 9 day MA 64.15, 20 day MA 63.71

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.4118

Signal: -0.5642

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.17

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.17 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 5,241

Avg (20d): 213,512

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 30.39

%D: 55.38

Stochastic %K: 30.39, %D: 55.38. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.9

+DI: 19.21

-DI: 16.0

ADX: 12.9 (+DI: 19.21, -DI: 16.0). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -69.61

Williams %R: -69.61 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.18

Middle: 63.71

Lower: 62.24

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.18, Middle: 63.71, Lower: 62.24

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13423.0	13439.0	13300.0	12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6742.0	6234.0	6560.0	6447.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3884.0	3810.0	3671.0	4040.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16869.0	16880.0	16864.0	16484.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2858.0	2424.0	2889.0	2406.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	420707.0	418292.0	425183.0	420712.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1670530.0	1662919.0	1656136.0	1641000.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	218539.0	222334.0	218394.0	216265.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	115923.0	114242.0	123086.0	117706.0

International Price Summary

Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $67.6, change $-1.54. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $63.97, change $-1.62. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.63 (Brent premium of $3.63). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.6

1.54

(NOV 25)

WTI Crude

$63.97

1.62

(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.63

Brent premium of $3.63

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC exhibits a cautious optimism regarding the oil market, acknowledging both challenges and potential growth opportunities in the coming years.

Key Themes

Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
Steady global economic growth despite recent tariff-related challenges.
Stable growth in world oil demand projected for 2025 and 2026.
Revised forecasts for non-OPEC liquids supply growth.
Fluctuations in refinery margins and product market dynamics.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric	Value/Forecast	Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026)	1.3 mb/d	Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026)	0.8 mb/d	Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025)	42.6 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026)	42.9 mb/d	Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average	173 mb below	As of March
Crude Oil Production (April)	40.92 mb/d	Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains committed to ensuring market stability while adapting to changing economic conditions. The organization is closely monitoring global oil demand and supply dynamics, with a focus on maintaining a balanced market through coordinated production adjustments among member countries.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."

"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for the coming years."

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-08-26

Managed Money

24,621

Change: -2,824

1.3% of OI

Producer/Merchant

298,128

Change: +334

15.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-428,999

Change: +9,349

-22.4% of OI

Open Interest

1,912,554

Change: -10,267

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-08-26

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,912,554 contracts (-10,267)

Managed Money Net Position: 24,621 contracts (1.3% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -2,824 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 298,128 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -428,999 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 53

Last Updated: 2025-09-04 23:49:03

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.12

Daily: -0.02 (-0.02%)

Weekly: 0.31 (0.31%)

US_10Y

4.18

Daily: -0.03 (-0.83%)

Weekly: -0.03 (-0.74%)

SP500

6502.08

Daily: 53.82 (0.83%)

Weekly: 0.22 (0.0%)

VIX

15.3

Daily: -1.05 (-6.42%)

Weekly: 0.87 (6.03%)

GOLD

3615.2

Daily: 22.0 (0.61%)

Weekly: 183.4 (5.34%)

COPPER

4.59

Daily: 0.03 (0.76%)

Weekly: 0.13 (2.9%)

Current Price: $63.35

Closest Support: $61.94 2.23% below current price

Closest Resistance: $65.82 3.9% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.94 Support

0.236 $65.82 Resistance

0.382 $68.23

0.5 $70.17

0.618 $72.11

0.786 $74.88

1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $82.88

1.618 $88.57

2.0 $94.86

2.618 $105.03

Current Price: $63.48

Forecast Generated: 2025-09-04 23:49:06

Next Trading Day: UP 0.01%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-09-05	$63.49	$61.34	$65.63
2025-09-06	$63.49	$61.34	$65.63
2025-09-07	$63.44	$61.29	$65.59
2025-09-08	$63.55	$61.4	$65.7
2025-09-09	$63.58	$61.43	$65.73

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-09-05), reaching $63.49.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-05 and 2025-09-09.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil prices, as indicated by a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests potential downward pressure in the short term. The $67.60 for Brent and $63.97 for WTI indicate a narrowing Brent-WTI spread of $3.63, reflecting diverging supply-demand dynamics.

Traders should watch for support levels around $62.00 for WTI and $66.00 for Brent, while resistance may be found at $68.00 for Brent and $64.50 for WTI. The market's volatility may increase due to geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, providing short-term trading opportunities.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the current bearish market sentiment and declining prices, producers should reassess their hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating oil prices. The inventory levels are critical, as OECD commercial crude stocks rose to 1,323 mb, indicating a potential oversupply.

The demand forecast for DoC crude is revised upward, but producers should remain cautious about production planning in light of the current geopolitical tensions and the potential impact on operational costs and market access.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. The $67.60 for Brent and $63.97 for WTI indicate a need for strategic procurement planning, especially given the bearish market sentiment.

Supply reliability could be affected by geopolitical issues, as highlighted by the increased crude imports from strategic partners like the US and India. Consumers should consider hedging options to buffer against unexpected price spikes or supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently exhibiting a bearish trend, driven by a mix of fundamental oversupply and weakening demand signals. The CFTC positioning indicates a decrease in managed money net positions, suggesting a loss of speculative interest.

Key factors influencing the market include the steady growth in global oil demand (1.3 mb/d increase expected) versus a revised down supply forecast from non-DoC countries. Analysts should monitor geopolitical developments closely, as they could shift market dynamics significantly.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for personalized guidance.