Crude Oil Radar

2025-09-10 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/10/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude Oil is centered around the 63.80 magnet - and appears to be consolidating before a move either up or down - the signals are pointing down. When we evaluate the softness on Diesel Stocks combined with OPEC+ incremental barrels and soft demand (although higher than expected). Near term I think a retest of 61.64 before dropping to the 50s (this is what we have been expecting for the near term). In 2026, I think we are looking more at a long term strength in prices for the next several years.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-10 23:47:01 Length: 480 chars
Crude Oil is currently consolidating around the $63.80 level, with indications leaning bearish due to soft diesel stocks and OPEC+ increasing output, despite a demand uptick. A retest of $61.64 is likely before potential drops into the $50s, reflecting ongoing market expectations. Geopolitical tensions and external market influences are providing some support, but the long-term outlook suggests a stronger price recovery starting in 2026. Traders should watch for any shifts...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: -1/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $66.39 $0.37
WTI: $62.63 $0.37
Spread: $3.76 (Brent premium of $3.76)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 27,323
Weekly Change: 2,702

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -1 (Neutral)
Current Price: $63.61
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.56

MA(20): $63.49

Current Price is 63.61, 9 day MA 63.56, 20 day MA 63.49

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.5837

Signal: -0.5873

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.16

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.16 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,604

Avg (20d): 207,897

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 47.16

%D: 30.2

Stochastic %K: 47.16, %D: 30.2. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 11.43

+DI: 16.21

-DI: 17.86

ADX: 11.43 (+DI: 16.21, -DI: 17.86). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -52.84

Williams %R: -52.84 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 65.28

Middle: 63.49

Lower: 61.7

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.28, Middle: 63.49, Lower: 61.7

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13495.0 13423.0 13300.0 12766.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6271.0 6742.0 5792.0 6747.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2745.0 3884.0 3756.0 3303.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16818.0 16869.0 16900.0 16527.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3526.0 2858.0 2036.0 3443.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 424646.0 420707.0 418310.0 423122.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1686474.0 1670530.0 1649891.0 1646667.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 219997.0 218539.0 219242.0 218299.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 120638.0 115923.0 122715.0 121192.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $66.39, change $+0.37. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $62.63, change $+0.37. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.76 (Brent premium of $3.76). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$66.39
0.37
(NOV 25)

WTI Crude

$62.63
0.37
(OCT 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.76
Brent premium of $3.76

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Narrative Analysis

Overall Sentiment

OPEC expresses a cautious sentiment regarding the oil market, reflecting concerns over supply adjustments and global economic growth forecasts.

Key Themes

  • Decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks.
  • Steady global economic growth despite recent challenges.
  • Stable growth in world oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries.
  • Revisions in non-OPEC liquids supply growth forecasts.
  • Fluctuations in refining margins and product markets.

Key Metrics and Forecasts

Metric Value/Forecast Source/Comment
World Oil Demand Growth (2025) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
World Oil Demand Growth (2026) 1.3 mb/d Unchanged from last month’s assessment
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) 0.8 mb/d Revised down by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2025) 42.6 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
Call on OPEC Crude (2026) 42.9 mb/d Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d
OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average -173 mb As of March
Crude Oil Production (April) 40.92 mb/d Decrease of 106 tb/d m-o-m

OPEC's Stance/Outlook

OPEC remains focused on maintaining market stability amid fluctuating prices and evolving global economic conditions. The organization is closely monitoring supply and demand dynamics, particularly in light of the revised growth forecasts for both oil demand and non-OPEC liquids supply.

Direct Quotes

"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a positive outlook for OPEC's market positioning."

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-02

Managed Money

27,323
Change: +2,702
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

299,736
Change: +1,608
15.1% of OI

Swap Dealers

-421,131
Change: +7,868
-21.2% of OI

Open Interest

1,987,861
Change: 75,307

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-02

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,987,861 contracts (+75,307)

Managed Money Net Position: 27,323 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +2,702 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 299,736 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -421,131 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 60
Last Updated: 2025-09-10 23:49:36

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (13 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (7 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.83
Daily: 0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly: -0.52 (-0.53%)

US_10Y

4.03
Daily: -0.04 (-1.03%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-3.45%)

SP500

6532.04
Daily: 19.43 (0.3%)
Weekly: 29.96 (0.46%)

VIX

15.35
Daily: 0.31 (2.06%)
Weekly: 0.05 (0.33%)

GOLD

3671.5
Daily: 28.2 (0.77%)
Weekly: 105.7 (2.96%)

COPPER

4.61
Daily: 0.11 (2.41%)
Weekly: 0.12 (2.71%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $63.61
Closest Support: $61.45 3.4% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.45 2.89% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.45 Support
0.236 $65.45 Resistance
0.382 $67.92
0.5 $69.93
0.618 $71.93
0.786 $74.77
1.0 $78.4

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $83.01
1.618 $88.88
2.0 $95.35
2.618 $105.83

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.67
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-10 23:49:38
Next Trading Day: UP 0.09%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-11 $63.73 $61.81 $65.64
2025-09-12 $63.79 $61.88 $65.71
2025-09-13 $63.73 $61.81 $65.65
2025-09-14 $63.68 $61.76 $65.59
2025-09-15 $63.61 $61.7 $65.53

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-09-11), reaching $63.73.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-11 and 2025-09-15.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices across various benchmarks, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $68.98/b, indicates potential volatility in the near term. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.50/b, reflecting a more balanced supply-demand dynamic, which could suggest short-term opportunities for traders willing to capitalize on price fluctuations.

The backwardation in the front end of the forward curves suggests that traders remain optimistic about short-term pricing, despite the overall bearish trend. Monitoring Fibonacci retracement levels may provide insights into potential support and resistance levels to guide trading strategies.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil demand projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in both 2025 and 2026, producers should consider adjusting production planning accordingly. The recent decline in inventories, particularly in OECD regions, may offer a favorable environment for pricing if demand continues to outpace supply.

Hedging strategies should be revisited given the current market sentiment, which is bullish but tempered by geopolitical risks. Producers should remain vigilant of fluctuations in product margins and inventory levels, which could impact operational profitability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. The $62.96/b average for WTI and the $66.46/b for Brent may impact procurement strategies, especially for refineries facing supply reliability risks due to geopolitical tensions.

With OECD commercial inventories below the 2015–2019 average, there is a risk of tighter supply, which could lead to increased prices. Consumers should consider implementing hedging strategies to mitigate potential spikes in costs.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by several key factors. The strong demand growth forecast, particularly from non-OECD countries, contrasts with supply constraints from OPEC+ and geopolitical tensions. This divergence may lead to upward pressure on prices if demand continues its upward trajectory while supply remains constrained.

The CFTC positioning data indicates a bullish sentiment among managed money traders, which could signal potential price increases. Analysts should closely monitor these positioning trends alongside macroeconomic indicators to anticipate shifts in market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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