MA(9): $62.96
MA(20): $63.49
MACD: -0.4297
Signal: -0.5591
Days since crossover: 2
Value: 52.27
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 75,410
Avg (20d): 224,827
Ratio: 0.34
%K: 63.32
%D: 43.6
ADX: 10.58
+DI: 17.35
-DI: 16.98
Value: -36.68
Upper: 65.35
Middle: 63.49
Lower: 61.62
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13482.0 | 13495.0 | 13300.0 | 12733.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5692.0 | 6271.0 | 6867.0 | 6595.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5277.0 | 2745.0 | 3305.0 | 4398.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16424.0 | 16818.0 | 16759.0 | 16378.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 415.0 | 3526.0 | 3562.0 | 2196.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 415361.0 | 424646.0 | 419143.0 | 422247.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688149.0 | 1686474.0 | 1659136.0 | 1649988.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 217650.0 | 219997.0 | 221552.0 | 218569.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124684.0 | 120638.0 | 125023.0 | 120688.0 |
Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $68.47, change $+1.03. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.52, change $+1.22. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.95 (Brent premium of $3.95). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
OPEC's sentiment appears cautious, reflecting concerns over market stability amid fluctuating oil prices and mixed economic growth forecasts.
| Metric | Value/Forecast | Source/Comment |
|---|---|---|
| World Oil Demand Growth (2025) | 1.3 mb/d | Unchanged from last month’s assessment |
| World Oil Demand Growth (2026) | 1.3 mb/d | Unchanged from last month’s assessment |
| Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2025) | 0.8 mb/d | Revised down by 0.1 mb/d |
| Non-OPEC Liquids Supply Growth (2026) | 0.8 mb/d | Revised down by 0.1 mb/d |
| Call on OPEC Crude (2025) | 42.6 mb/d | Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d |
| Call on OPEC Crude (2026) | 42.9 mb/d | Revised upward by 0.1 mb/d |
| OECD Commercial Stock Deviation from 5-year average | 173 mb below | As of March |
| Compliance Levels with Production Agreements | Not Mentioned | N/A |
OPEC maintains a focus on market stability, acknowledging the challenges posed by fluctuating demand and supply dynamics. The organization is likely to continue monitoring global economic indicators closely and may adjust production strategies to support price stability.
"The global economy continues to demonstrate a steady growth trend despite recent tariff-related developments."
"Demand for DoC crude is revised upward, reflecting a more optimistic outlook for OPEC's market share."
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-09
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,957,115 contracts (-30,746)
Managed Money Net Position: 10,002 contracts (0.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -17,321 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 301,400 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -403,555 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-16 | $63.28 | $61.48 | $65.09 |
| 2025-09-17 | $63.24 | $61.44 | $65.05 |
| 2025-09-18 | $63.29 | $61.49 | $65.1 |
| 2025-09-19 | $63.26 | $61.45 | $65.07 |
| 2025-09-20 | $63.23 | $61.42 | $65.03 |
Current market signals indicate a bullish sentiment, supported by a sentiment score of +0.600. The Brent-WTI spread of $3.95 reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics, with Brent maintaining a premium due to geopolitical factors. Traders should monitor the $66.46 level for Brent and $62.96 for WTI as potential support levels. Given the narrowing spread and recent price movements, there may be short-term opportunities for profit-taking or hedging against volatility as the market adjusts to inventory changes and geopolitical tensions.
The recent decline in OPEC Reference Basket prices and NYMEX WTI could necessitate adjustments in production planning and hedging strategies. With OECD commercial crude stocks at 1,323 mb, which is 139 mb below the 2015–2019 average, producers may need to evaluate their output levels to align with the revised demand forecasts for DoC crude, which is projected to increase. The volatile market sentiment suggests that maintaining flexibility in production could be beneficial as demand dynamics evolve.
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with the current Brent and WTI prices around $68.47 and $64.52, respectively. The risk of supply disruptions due to geopolitical factors, especially concerning Russian crude supplies, may impact procurement strategies. The current inventory levels, with a decline in product stocks, suggest that securing supply contracts ahead of time could mitigate cost volatility in the near term.
The Crude Oil market is exhibiting a mixed picture with bullish sentiment driven by geopolitical tensions and supply concerns, yet tempered by recent price declines. Key drivers include a steady growth in global oil demand and a slight decrease in non-DoC supply forecasts. The managed money positioning indicates a potential market reversal, with a weakening bullish sentiment as open interest declines. Analysts should closely monitor these factors and their implications for future price movements and market dynamics.