MA(9): $63.18
MA(20): $63.58
MACD: -0.3371
Signal: -0.4769
Days since crossover: 4
Value: 47.0
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 6,668
Avg (20d): 216,981
Ratio: 0.03
%K: 36.9
%D: 53.57
ADX: 9.48
+DI: 16.09
-DI: 16.71
Value: -63.1
Upper: 65.4
Middle: 63.58
Lower: 61.76
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13482.0 | 13495.0 | 13300.0 | 12733.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5692.0 | 6271.0 | 6867.0 | 6595.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5277.0 | 2745.0 | 3305.0 | 4398.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16424.0 | 16818.0 | 16759.0 | 16378.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 415.0 | 3526.0 | 3562.0 | 2196.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 415361.0 | 424646.0 | 419143.0 | 422247.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688149.0 | 1686474.0 | 1659136.0 | 1649988.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 217650.0 | 219997.0 | 221552.0 | 218569.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124684.0 | 120638.0 | 125023.0 | 120688.0 |
Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $67.95, change $-0.52. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $64.05, change $-0.47. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.9 (Brent premium of $3.90). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b in August. Despite this, global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, particularly in non-OECD regions, while production from non-DoC countries is expected to increase, indicating a complex balance of supply and demand in the market.
| Category | Production (mb/d) | Demand (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|
| World Production | 105.135 | 105.135 |
| Non-DoC Production | 51.440 | - |
| DoC Production | 42.40 | - |
The global oil supply and demand are currently balanced at approximately 105.135 mb/d. However, with non-DoC production expected to rise, particularly from the US and Brazil, there may be a potential surplus in the market if demand does not keep pace with this increased supply. This could lead to downward pressure on prices in the coming months.
Production by region shows that the Americas lead with 25.10 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.54 mb/d and the Asia Pacific at 7.17 mb/d. The Middle East contributes 9.01 mb/d, with significant increases noted in US and Brazilian production. The overall trend indicates a robust output from non-DoC countries, which may challenge OPEC's market share.
Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries, particularly China and India. The demand in the Americas and Europe remains stable, but growth is expected to be more pronounced in the Asia Pacific region, highlighting a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.
Non-DoC production is projected at 51.44 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production, which stands at 42.40 mb/d. This disparity indicates that non-OPEC producers are increasingly contributing to global supply, potentially undermining OPEC's influence on the market. The growth in non-DoC production is primarily driven by the US and Brazil.
OPEC's current market position is challenged by rising production from non-DoC countries and a stable demand forecast. The organization may need to consider strategic adjustments in production levels to maintain price stability and market share. Continued monitoring of global economic conditions and demand trends will be crucial for OPEC's policy decisions moving forward.
Looking ahead, the market may experience increased volatility due to the potential surplus from rising non-DoC production. OPEC's ability to manage its output in response to these changes will be critical. Additionally, geopolitical factors and economic growth in key regions will play significant roles in shaping future demand and pricing dynamics.
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-09
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,957,115 contracts (-30,746)
Managed Money Net Position: 10,002 contracts (0.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -17,321 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 301,400 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -403,555 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-19 | $63.51 | $61.66 | $65.36 |
| 2025-09-20 | $63.46 | $61.61 | $65.31 |
| 2025-09-21 | $63.42 | $61.57 | $65.27 |
| 2025-09-22 | $63.46 | $61.61 | $65.31 |
| 2025-09-23 | $63.49 | $61.64 | $65.34 |
Current market dynamics indicate potential bullish sentiment despite recent price declines. The $67.95 for Brent and $64.05 for WTI reflect a tight supply-demand balance, with the Brent-WTI spread widening to $3.90, suggesting ongoing strength in Brent relative to WTI. Traders should monitor support levels around the recent lows and Fibonacci retracement levels for potential entry points, especially given the speculative selling pressure observed in August.
Producers should focus on the implications of inventory levels, which are currently low compared to historical averages. With OECD crude stocks down 66.5 mb year-on-year, this presents an opportunity for price recovery. However, the bearish sentiment from managed money positioning suggests caution in production planning. Hedging strategies may need to be adapted to mitigate potential price volatility as demand forecasts remain stable yet uncertain.
Consumers should prepare for possible fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI at $64.05 and Brent at $67.95. The geopolitical tensions and the recent drop in crude imports from India signal potential supply reliability risks. As such, procurement strategies should incorporate hedging to buffer against rising prices and ensure stable supply, especially with the demand sentiment currently under pressure.
The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture with bullish sentiment in the backdrop of stable economic growth forecasts. The supply-demand dynamics are tightening, reflected in low inventory levels, while speculative positioning indicates a potential market reversal. Analysts should closely monitor the impact of geopolitical factors and the weakening demand sentiment from industrial sectors, as these could shift the outlook significantly.