MA(9): $63.28
MA(20): $63.56
MACD: -0.3465
Signal: -0.4453
Days since crossover: 5
Value: 45.03
Category: NEUTRAL
Current: 82,321
Avg (20d): 212,371
Ratio: 0.39
%K: 26.86
%D: 43.3
ADX: 9.79
+DI: 14.89
-DI: 19.25
Value: -73.14
Upper: 65.41
Middle: 63.56
Lower: 61.7
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13482.0 | 13495.0 | 13300.0 | 12733.33 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5692.0 | 6271.0 | 6867.0 | 6595.33 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5277.0 | 2745.0 | 3305.0 | 4398.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16424.0 | 16818.0 | 16759.0 | 16378.67 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 415.0 | 3526.0 | 3562.0 | 2196.67 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 415361.0 | 424646.0 | 419143.0 | 422247.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1688149.0 | 1686474.0 | 1659136.0 | 1649988.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 217650.0 | 219997.0 | 221552.0 | 218569.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 124684.0 | 120638.0 | 125023.0 | 120688.0 |
Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $66.68, change $-0.76. WTI crude (OCT 25) settled at $62.68, change $-0.89. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.0 (Brent premium of $4.00). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices amid stable global economic growth. With a balanced supply-demand outlook, OPEC's production adjustments are crucial to maintaining market stability in the face of fluctuating demand forecasts.
| Category | Production (mb/d) | Demand (mb/d) |
|---|---|---|
| World Production |
|
|
The current data indicates a balanced supply-demand scenario with total world production at 105.14 mb/d against total world demand of 105.14 mb/d. This equilibrium suggests no immediate surplus or deficit, which is critical for maintaining price stability in the market.
Key producers such as the US, Canada, and Brazil continue to drive non-DoC production, contributing significantly to the overall supply. The OPEC countries participating in the DoC have shown a slight increase in production, averaging about 42.40 mb/d, indicating a strategic response to market conditions.
Demand growth is primarily driven by the non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, which are projected to see increases of 1.2 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d respectively in 2025. This trend highlights the shifting demand dynamics towards emerging markets, while OECD demand remains relatively stable.
Non-DoC production is forecasted to grow by about 0.8 mb/d in 2025, with the US leading this growth. In contrast, DoC production is expected to increase modestly, suggesting that while Non-DoC producers are ramping up output, OPEC's controlled production strategy remains vital for market stability.
OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production adjustments in response to global demand fluctuations. The organization is likely to continue its strategy of balancing production to support prices while accommodating the growth in non-OECD demand.
As we look ahead, the trends indicate a potential tightening of the market in 2026, driven by increased demand from non-OECD countries. OPEC's ability to manage its production levels will be crucial in responding to these changes and maintaining price stability.
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-16
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,962,620 contracts (+5,505)
Managed Money Net Position: 36,799 contracts (1.9% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +26,797 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 292,741 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -407,490 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-20 | $62.64 | $60.76 | $64.52 |
| 2025-09-21 | $62.6 | $60.72 | $64.48 |
| 2025-09-22 | $62.66 | $60.78 | $64.54 |
| 2025-09-23 | $62.71 | $60.83 | $64.59 |
| 2025-09-24 | $62.76 | $60.88 | $64.64 |
Crude oil prices are experiencing a bearish sentiment, with the OPEC Reference Basket falling to an average of $69.73/b in August. The widening Brent-WTI spread of $4.00 indicates potential volatility in price differentials, suggesting traders should monitor geopolitical developments closely. The market's current backwardation reflects solid physical fundamentals, but speculative selling pressure may signal caution. Key Fibonacci resistance levels should be identified for short-term trading strategies, especially as hedge funds have turned net short.
With global oil demand forecasted to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, producers should consider adjusting production planning to align with this anticipated demand. The current inventory levels, particularly in OECD countries, are lower than historical averages, indicating potential for price recovery if demand holds steady. The hedging strategies may need to be revisited as market sentiment remains bearish, particularly in light of high crude imports into the US and uncertainties surrounding geopolitical factors.
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. The geopolitical risks surrounding Russian supply may lead to supply reliability concerns. Additionally, the recent increase in US crude imports to 6.5 mb/d could impact procurement strategies. Monitoring refinery margins, which have shown strength in the USGC, will be critical for refining operations and product pricing strategies.
The Crude Oil market shows a complex interplay of bearish sentiment driven by both demand concerns and speculative positioning. Key factors include stable global economic growth forecasts, yet inventory levels are significantly below historical averages, suggesting potential price support in the medium term. The disaggregated positioning data indicates that managed money traders are net short, which may signal a market reversal if conditions shift. Analysts should closely watch the evolving geopolitical landscape and its impact on supply dynamics.