Crude Oil Radar

2025-09-26 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/26/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Most traders are watching crude inventories which are below last year and below the 3 year average. Yet this is really only one side of the equation - the only true market for crude oil is refineries to be refined into gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, bunker fuel, etc. When we look at that market - the refiners are running every last bit of crude through the US capacity, and this is giving us lots of products - gasoline is sitting right on top of 3 year average stocks, while distillates that were previously setting new record low stocks are now sitting ABOVE 3 year averages - this is a canary in the coalmine and a BIG indicator that the economy is not in good shape and the crude demand will falter in coming months (maybe even weeks). Russian sanctions and increased strikes on Russian infrastructure are keeping crude bid higher - but the near term weakness is real. Right now we are trading just over the key support/resistance level of 63.80 and a break below there takes us back to re-test 61.64 - I think we are going to see a drop into the 50s before 2026 and then a long bullish trend during next year due to lower global supply. This does change from the technical perspective if the bulls can break above 66.84 - then we may skip on the short term dip and just head into the long bull trend that is building…

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-26 23:46:33 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices are navigating a tricky landscape as inventories sit below last year and the three-year average, with refiners operating at full capacity, producing ample gasoline and distillates. However, this could signal weakening demand, especially with geopolitical tensions surrounding Russia keeping prices elevated. Currently trading around $63.80, a breach could lead to a dip into the $50s. Watch for resistance at $66.84, which may indicate a bullish turn. So, keep...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Neutral
Score: 0/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $69.42 $0.11
WTI: $64.98 $0.01
Spread: $4.44 (Brent premium of $4.44)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): 0 (Neutral)
Current Price: $65.19
Signal: Neutral

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $64.0

MA(20): $63.59

Current Price is 65.19, 9 day MA 64.0, 20 day MA 63.59

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0648

Signal: -0.2303

Days since crossover: 10

MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 56.55

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 56.55 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 266,717

Avg (20d): 226,992

Ratio: 1.18

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 74.0

%D: 87.49

Stochastic %K: 74.0, %D: 87.49. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 10.96

+DI: 23.52

-DI: 15.14

ADX: 10.96 (+DI: 23.52, -DI: 15.14). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -26.0

Williams %R: -26.0 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 65.67

Middle: 63.59

Lower: 61.51

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 65.67, Middle: 63.59, Lower: 61.51

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13501.0 13482.0 13200.0 12700.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6495.0 5692.0 6322.0 6711.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4484.0 5277.0 4589.0 4185.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16476.0 16424.0 16477.0 16056.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2011.0 415.0 1733.0 2526.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 414754.0 415361.0 417513.0 419962.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1687905.0 1688149.0 1663174.0 1640486.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 216569.0 217650.0 221621.0 217591.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 122999.0 124684.0 125148.0 119114.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $69.42, change $+0.11. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $64.98, change $-0.01. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.44 (Brent premium of $4.44). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$69.42
0.11
(NOV 25)

WTI Crude

$64.98
0.01
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.44
Brent premium of $4.44

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b in August. Despite this, global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, particularly in non-OECD regions, indicating a balanced yet cautious outlook for the oil market.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.427 mb/d 105.135 mb/d
Non-DoC Production 51.440 mb/d N/A
DoC Production 42.40 mb/d N/A

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The data indicates a slight supply deficit in the global oil market, with total production at 104.427 mb/d against a demand of 105.135 mb/d. This deficit may exert upward pressure on prices if the trend continues, especially as demand in non-OECD countries remains robust.

Production Landscape:

Production by region shows that the Americas lead with 25.10 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.54 mb/d and the Middle East at 9.01 mb/d. The increase in DoC production by 509 tb/d to 42.40 mb/d in August highlights OPEC's efforts to stabilize the market amidst fluctuating prices.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, which are expected to see increases of 1.2 mb/d combined. This growth indicates a shift in demand dynamics favoring emerging economies.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production stands at 51.440 mb/d, significantly contributing to global supply, while DoC production is at 42.40 mb/d. The balance between these two segments is crucial, as Non-DoC producers like the US and Brazil continue to expand their output, potentially impacting OPEC's market share.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current position appears stable, with a focus on maintaining production levels to support prices amidst a slight supply deficit. The organization's strategy may involve cautious adjustments to output in response to ongoing market conditions and demand forecasts.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the oil market may experience increased volatility due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. However, steady demand growth in non-OECD countries could provide a buffer against potential downturns, suggesting a cautiously optimistic outlook for OPEC's market strategy.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the balance between Non-DoC and DoC production closely, as shifts could impact pricing.
  • Focus on emerging markets, particularly in Asia, for potential demand growth opportunities.
  • Consider strategic production adjustments to mitigate the effects of market volatility.
  • Stay informed on geopolitical developments that could influence oil supply and demand dynamics.
  • Evaluate refining margins and product balances to optimize operational efficiencies in response to market changes.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 70
Last Updated: 2025-09-26 23:49:37

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Geopolitical (16 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.18
Daily: -0.37 (-0.37%)
Weekly: 0.85 (0.88%)

US_10Y

4.19
Daily: 0.01 (0.36%)
Weekly: 0.04 (1.06%)

SP500

6643.7
Daily: 38.98 (0.59%)
Weekly: -50.05 (-0.75%)

VIX

15.29
Daily: -1.45 (-8.66%)
Weekly: -0.81 (-5.03%)

GOLD

3789.8
Daily: 52.9 (1.42%)
Weekly: 49.1 (1.31%)

COPPER

4.76
Daily: 0.06 (1.37%)
Weekly: 0.19 (4.19%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $65.19
Closest Support: $64.91 0.43% below current price
Closest Resistance: $65.98 1.21% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.45
0.236 $63.59
0.382 $64.91 Support
0.5 $65.98 Resistance
0.618 $67.05
0.786 $68.57
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $72.97
1.618 $76.11
2.0 $79.57
2.618 $85.17

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $64.98
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-26 23:49:39
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.01%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-26 $64.98 $63.13 $66.82
2025-09-27 $64.91 $63.06 $66.75
2025-09-28 $64.83 $62.98 $66.67
2025-09-29 $64.76 $62.92 $66.6
2025-09-30 $64.77 $62.92 $66.61

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-09-26), reaching $64.98.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-26 and 2025-09-30.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~5.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent data indicates a bearish sentiment among traders, as evidenced by the $69.73/b average drop in the OPEC Reference Basket and a widening Brent-WTI spread of $4.44. The support levels to watch are around $64.00/b for WTI, while resistance could be tested at $67.50/b for Brent. The shift in positioning, with managed money moving to a net short position, suggests potential volatility in the short term. Traders might find opportunities in the backwardation structure, but should remain cautious of further speculative selling pressure.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With OECD crude oil inventories showing a slight increase but remaining well below historical averages, producers should assess their hedging strategies carefully. The steady growth in non-DoC liquids production indicates a competitive market landscape, necessitating adjustments in production planning. The bullish sentiment from the geopolitical landscape, particularly concerning Russian supply, may provide opportunities for higher pricing, but the risks associated with fluctuating inventory levels must be monitored closely.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations due to the current $64.98/b WTI and $69.42/b Brent pricing. The geopolitical tensions and supply reliability risks, particularly from Russia and fluctuating inventories, could affect procurement strategies. The hedging considerations against potential price spikes should be prioritized, especially given the bearish sentiment in the market and the possibility of increased volatility in the near term.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a mixed outlook. While the bullish sentiment persists due to geopolitical factors and a backwardation market structure, the bearish positioning from managed money indicates potential short-term volatility. Key driving factors include stable global oil demand growth at 1.3 mb/d for 2025 and increasing non-DoC production. The balance between supply and demand remains delicate, warranting close monitoring of market dynamics and sentiment shifts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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