Crude Oil Radar

2025-09-29 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 09/29/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude is a tale of two cities - on the one hand, we have concerning data coming out from the US in distillates (bearish) - which indicates a lot of financial weakness while globally the crude and products total stocks does show that the globe is on the low end of recent historical ranges (bullish). Add in the escalation between Russia-NATO which is making markets a bit nervous but more importantly sanctions could reduce Russian output (I see this as unlikely to stop their flows - but traders believe the sanctions will reduce their flows - it won’t - it only changes who Russia can sell to). I have held the belief that we will have a bearish move down before a fundamental long shift up - but I have also been open to the fact that we could skip the dip down and head up. This week I am watching two key numbers 66.84 (which we appear to be on the verge of testing) and 63.80. A break above 66.84 will take us back into the 70s and a break below 63.80 will take us back to 61.64.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-09-29 23:46:51 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bearish U.S. distillate data and bullish global stock levels, leaving traders in a quandary. Geopolitical tensions, particularly between Russia and NATO, add to market jitters, though the impact of sanctions on Russian supply remains uncertain. Key price levels to watch are $66.84, which could signal a bullish rebound, and $63.80, a potential bearish floor. With OPEC+ discussions hinting at increased supply, the mark...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $70.13 $0.71
WTI: $65.72 $0.74
Spread: $4.41 (Brent premium of $4.41)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $62.97
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.89

MA(20): $63.57

Current Price is 62.97, 9 day MA 63.89, 20 day MA 63.57

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: 0.0114

Signal: -0.1752

Days since crossover: 11

MACD crossed the line 11 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 46.07

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 46.07 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 9,379

Avg (20d): 228,375

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 27.06

%D: 67.47

Stochastic %K: 27.06, %D: 67.47. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 10.22

+DI: 20.64

-DI: 20.91

ADX: 10.22 (+DI: 20.64, -DI: 20.91). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -72.94

Williams %R: -72.94 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.75

Middle: 63.57

Lower: 61.38

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.75, Middle: 63.57, Lower: 61.38

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13501.0 13482.0 13200.0 12700.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6495.0 5692.0 6322.0 6711.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4484.0 5277.0 4589.0 4185.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16476.0 16424.0 16477.0 16056.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2011.0 415.0 1733.0 2526.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 414754.0 415361.0 417513.0 419962.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1687905.0 1688149.0 1663174.0 1640486.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 216569.0 217650.0 221621.0 217591.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 122999.0 124684.0 125148.0 119114.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $70.13, change $+0.71. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $65.72, change $+0.74. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.41 (Brent premium of $4.41). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$70.13
0.71
(NOV 25)

WTI Crude

$65.72
0.74
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.41
Brent premium of $4.41

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b in August. Despite this, the global oil demand growth forecast remains stable, with expectations of a 1.3 mb/d increase in 2025, driven primarily by non-OECD countries.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 105.135 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.440 N/A
DoC Production 42.40 N/A

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The balance between global oil production and demand indicates a stable market, with total world demand matching total production at 105.135 mb/d. This balance suggests no immediate surplus or deficit, although the market remains sensitive to fluctuations in both production levels and geopolitical factors.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the Americas (25.10 mb/d), Europe (13.54 mb/d), and the Middle East (9.01 mb/d). Notably, the US leads Non-DoC production at 22.07 mb/d, highlighting its significant role in the global supply chain.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, driving this increase. The demand in the Americas and Europe remains stable, reflecting a mature market with limited growth potential.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.44 mb/d, significantly contributing to global supply, while DoC production is at 42.40 mb/d. This indicates that Non-DoC producers are increasingly vital in meeting global demand, especially as OPEC navigates its production strategies.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position appears stable, with a focus on maintaining production levels to balance the market. The organization may consider adjusting its output strategy in response to changing demand dynamics, particularly from non-OECD countries.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As we look ahead, the market is likely to experience continued demand growth, particularly from emerging economies. However, potential geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact production strategies and pricing in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor Non-DoC production trends as they play a crucial role in global supply dynamics.
  • Stay alert to geopolitical developments that could disrupt supply chains.
  • Consider the implications of stable demand growth in non-OECD countries for future pricing strategies.
  • Evaluate the potential for OPEC to adjust production in response to market changes.
  • Assess refinery margins and product balances to gauge market health and profitability.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 37
Last Updated: 2025-09-29 23:49:54

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.95
Daily: -0.2 (-0.2%)
Weekly: 0.69 (0.71%)

US_10Y

4.14
Daily: -0.05 (-1.1%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.51%)

SP500

6661.21
Daily: 17.51 (0.26%)
Weekly: 4.29 (0.06%)

VIX

16.12
Daily: 0.83 (5.43%)
Weekly: -0.52 (-3.12%)

GOLD

3887.6
Daily: 112.3 (2.97%)
Weekly: 107.0 (2.83%)

COPPER

4.9
Daily: 0.18 (3.88%)
Weekly: 0.31 (6.85%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $62.97
Closest Support: $61.45 2.41% below current price
Closest Resistance: $63.59 0.98% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.45 Support
0.236 $63.59 Resistance
0.382 $64.91
0.5 $65.98
0.618 $67.05
0.786 $68.57
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $72.97
1.618 $76.11
2.0 $79.57
2.618 $85.17

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $63.45
Forecast Generated: 2025-09-29 23:49:57
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.09%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-09-30 $63.4 $61.4 $65.39
2025-10-01 $63.32 $61.33 $65.32
2025-10-02 $63.35 $61.35 $65.34
2025-10-03 $63.4 $61.4 $65.4
2025-10-04 $63.49 $61.49 $65.49

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-09-30), reaching $63.40.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-09-30 and 2025-10-04.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.600, indicates potential downward pressure on crude oil prices. The $70.13 for Brent and $65.72 for WTI suggest a balance in supply-demand dynamics, but with significant speculative selling pressure noted.

The widening $4.41 Brent-WTI spread highlights ongoing disparities in global versus U.S. supply and demand, presenting potential short-term trading opportunities as traders may capitalize on these fluctuations. Furthermore, the backwardation in the market structure suggests support levels may hold firm, but traders should monitor for any signs of further bearish trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the bearish sentiment dominating the market, producers should reassess their hedging strategies to protect against potential price declines. The rise in 3.6 mb in crude stocks indicates a possible oversupply situation, which could impact future production planning.

The balance of supply and demand remains tight, particularly with non-DoC production expected to grow, which could further pressure prices. Producers should consider the implications of inventory levels, as lower product stocks could influence refining margins and operational decisions.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The current market dynamics suggest potential input cost fluctuations for consumers, particularly as WTI is trading around $65.72 and Brent at $70.13. Given the bearish market sentiment, consumers should prepare for possible price volatility in the near term.

Supply reliability may be impacted by geopolitical tensions, particularly with concerns around Russian supply and Iraq's resumption of exports. This could affect procurement strategies, necessitating a careful evaluation of hedging options to mitigate risks associated with supply disruptions.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.
📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, with managed money positions indicating a weakening bullish stance. The $4.41 Brent-WTI spread reflects the ongoing divergence in supply-demand dynamics amid geopolitical uncertainties.

Key driving factors include stable global economic growth forecasts and modest demand growth, particularly in non-OECD countries. However, the increase in commercial inventories and the bearish news sentiment underscore the need for analysts to closely monitor market shifts that could alter the balance of supply and demand in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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