Crude Oil Radar

Published: 09/30/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

On Sunday’s video I discussed that we would likely head back down to 63.80 and possibly more…well that didn’t take long. WTI is resting below that critical support/resistance line of 63.80 and may be sizing up for the drop below 61.64 which opens up the 50s. OPEC+ is looking at accelerating returning the remaining cuts in Nov-Dec-Jan - which is a bit odd as this is also normally a weak part of the annual price cycle. But possibly this move puts the OPEC countries in the driver seat with corporate drilling budgets being finalized for 2026 - so this could drop drilling activity more and thus opening up space for more DoC country production. Add in a bit of bearish outlook on the government shutdown and this provides good fuel for the bulls to attempt that push down. 61.64 is the line in the sand.

Updated: 2025-09-30 23:46:50 Length: 480 chars

Crude oil prices are currently teetering below the critical support level of $63.80, with analysts eyeing a potential drop to $61.64, which could open the door to the 50s. OPEC+ plans to accelerate returning cuts in the normally weak Q4, possibly tightening supply amidst rising U.S. crude inventories. Meanwhile, looming government shutdown concerns are adding bearish pressure. Traders should watch the $61.64 level closely, as it could catalyze further movements in this vol...

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $67.97 $2.16

WTI: $63.45 $2.27

Spread: $4.52 (Brent premium of $4.52)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $62.4

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $63.76

MA(20): $63.43

Current Price is 62.4, 9 day MA 63.76, 20 day MA 63.43

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.0797

Signal: -0.1499

Days since crossover: 12

MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.84

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.84 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,244

Avg (20d): 227,022

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 15.01

%D: 45.81

Stochastic %K: 15.01, %D: 45.81. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 10.03

+DI: 19.55

-DI: 22.99

ADX: 10.03 (+DI: 19.55, -DI: 22.99). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -84.99

Williams %R: -84.99 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.45

Middle: 63.43

Lower: 61.41

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.45, Middle: 63.43, Lower: 61.41

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13501.0	13482.0	13200.0	12700.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6495.0	5692.0	6322.0	6711.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4484.0	5277.0	4589.0	4185.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16476.0	16424.0	16477.0	16056.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2011.0	415.0	1733.0	2526.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	414754.0	415361.0	417513.0	419962.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1687905.0	1688149.0	1663174.0	1640486.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	216569.0	217650.0	221621.0	217591.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	122999.0	124684.0	125148.0	119114.67

International Price Summary

Brent crude (NOV 25) settled at $67.97, change $-2.16. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $63.45, change $-2.27. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.52 (Brent premium of $4.52). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$67.97

2.16

(NOV 25)

WTI Crude

$63.45

2.27

(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.52

Brent premium of $4.52

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices alongside stable global economic growth. Despite a decrease in the OPEC Reference Basket value, the fundamentals of the physical crude market remain solid, with production adjustments anticipated to align with demand forecasts.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Production (mb/d)	Demand (mb/d)
World Production	104.427 mb/d	105.135 mb/d
Non-DoC Production	51.440 mb/d	59.325 mb/d
DoC Production	42.40 mb/d	N/A

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The data indicates a slight supply deficit, with total world production at 104.427 mb/d against a demand of 105.135 mb/d. This imbalance suggests potential upward pressure on prices if the trend continues, highlighting the need for OPEC to consider production adjustments to stabilize the market.

Production Landscape:

Major contributors to global oil production include the US (22.068 mb/d), Canada (6.060 mb/d), and Brazil (4.389 mb/d). The DoC countries collectively produced approximately 42.40 mb/d, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 509 tb/d. This growth underscores the importance of OPEC's coordinated efforts in managing output levels.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD regions, particularly China and India. The demand in the OECD is expected to grow modestly, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production stands at 51.440 mb/d, significantly contributing to the global supply, while DoC production is at 42.40 mb/d. The disparity highlights the critical role of non-OPEC producers in shaping the overall market dynamics and the need for OPEC to adapt its strategies accordingly.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production levels in light of fluctuating demand and prices. The organization is likely to continue monitoring market conditions closely, with potential policy directions focusing on maintaining price stability through coordinated production adjustments.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As demand is expected to rise, particularly in non-OECD countries, OPEC may face pressure to increase production to meet this demand. However, any significant price recovery will depend on geopolitical stability and the ability of producers to manage output effectively.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor global demand trends closely, especially in emerging markets like China and India.
Consider strategic production adjustments to address the current supply-demand imbalance.
Enhance collaboration with non-OPEC producers to stabilize market conditions.
Stay vigilant regarding geopolitical developments that could impact oil prices.
Evaluate the effectiveness of current pricing strategies in light of market fluctuations.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.7

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 36

Last Updated: 2025-09-30 23:49:49

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.84

Daily: -0.07 (-0.07%)

Weekly: -0.03 (-0.03%)

US_10Y

4.15

Daily: 0.01 (0.17%)

Weekly: 0.0 (0.02%)

SP500

6688.46

Daily: 27.25 (0.41%)

Weekly: 50.49 (0.76%)

VIX

16.28

Daily: 0.16 (0.99%)

Weekly: 0.1 (0.62%)

GOLD

3887.9

Daily: 67.0 (1.75%)

Weekly: 155.8 (4.17%)

COPPER

4.84

Daily: -0.0 (-0.03%)

Weekly: 0.09 (1.83%)

Current Price: $62.4

Closest Support: $61.45 1.52% below current price

Closest Resistance: $63.59 1.91% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $61.45 Support

0.236 $63.59 Resistance

0.382 $64.91

0.5 $65.98

0.618 $67.05

0.786 $68.57

1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $72.97

1.618 $76.11

2.0 $79.57

2.618 $85.17

Current Price: $62.37

Forecast Generated: 2025-09-30 23:49:52

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.09%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-10-01	$62.31	$60.3	$64.32
2025-10-02	$62.34	$60.33	$64.35
2025-10-03	$62.41	$60.4	$64.42
2025-10-04	$62.54	$60.53	$64.55
2025-10-05	$62.59	$60.57	$64.6

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-10-01), reaching $62.31.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-01 and 2025-10-05.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

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For Energy Traders:

The current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b and both Brent and WTI contracts showing declines. The $3.24/b Brent-WTI spread suggests a widening gap, reflecting differences in supply-demand dynamics. Traders should monitor support levels around $64.00 for WTI and $67.00 for Brent, as these could indicate potential reversal points. The recent shift in managed money positioning, moving to a net short, signals potential volatility in the near term, presenting both risks and opportunities for short-term trades.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the current bearish market sentiment and rising crude inventories, producers may need to adjust their production planning and hedging strategies. The increase in OECD crude stocks to 1,317 mb indicates potential oversupply risks, which could pressure prices further. As the global demand forecast remains stable at 1.3 mb/d, producers should focus on operational efficiency to mitigate the effects of pricing volatility and consider hedging against potential downturns in crude prices.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations, as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. The geopolitical risks and fluctuating inventories could impact supply reliability. With US crude imports rising to 6.5 mb/d, there may be opportunities to secure favorable procurement terms. However, the bearish sentiment and declining margins in regions like Rotterdam and Singapore could lead to increased costs in the near term. Monitoring market trends closely will be essential for effective procurement strategies.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by speculative selling and rising inventories. The balance of supply and demand remains delicate, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, while supply, particularly from non-DoC countries, is expected to rise. The widening Brent-WTI spread reflects changing dynamics in global versus U.S. markets. Analysts should closely watch the positioning of managed money traders, as shifts could indicate potential market reversals or trend continuations.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.