Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-03 23:49

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/03/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
On Sunday’s video I discussed that we would likely head back down to 63.80 and possibly more…well that didn’t take long. WTI is resting below that critical support/resistance line of 63.80 and may be sizing up for the drop below 61.64 which opens up the 50s. OPEC+ is looking at accelerating returning the remaining cuts in Nov-Dec-Jan - which is a bit odd as this is also normally a weak part of the annual price cycle. But possibly this move puts the OPEC countries in the driver seat with corporate drilling budgets being finalized for 2026 - so this could drop drilling activity more and thus opening up space for more DoC country production. Add in a bit of bearish outlook on the government shutdown and this provides good fuel for the bulls to attempt that push down. 61.64 is the line in the sand.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-03 23:46:38 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil prices are currently facing significant pressure, resting below the critical $63.80 support/resistance line, with potential for a drop to $61.64. OPEC+ may accelerate returning production cuts, which seems counterintuitive given the typical seasonal price weakness. Concerns regarding a government shutdown add to bearish sentiment. Meanwhile, WTI recently rebounded due to dollar weakness and stock market strength, but the outlook remains cautious as the market bra...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.11 $1.24
WTI: $60.48 $1.3
Spread: $3.63 (Brent premium of $3.63)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.69
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $63.1

MA(20): $63.11

Current Price is 60.69, 9 day MA 63.1, 20 day MA 63.11

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.5984

Signal: -0.2982

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 38.44

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 38.44 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 210,950

Avg (20d): 236,733

Ratio: 0.89

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 4.82

%D: 4.57

Stochastic %K: 4.82, %D: 4.57. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.39

+DI: 15.78

-DI: 25.76

ADX: 12.39 (+DI: 15.78, -DI: 25.76). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -95.18

Williams %R: -95.18 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.75

Middle: 63.11

Lower: 60.48

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.75, Middle: 63.11, Lower: 60.48

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13505.0 13501.0 13200.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5833.0 6495.0 6456.0 6263.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3751.0 4484.0 3897.0 4461.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16168.0 16476.0 16353.0 15751.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2082.0 2011.0 2559.0 1801.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 416546.0 414754.0 413042.0 420065.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1695087.0 1687905.0 1649879.0 1636650.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 220694.0 216569.0 220083.0 218548.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 123577.0 122999.0 122921.0 117116.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $64.11, change $-1.24. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $60.48, change $-1.3. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.63 (Brent premium of $3.63). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.11
1.24
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$60.48
1.3
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.63
Brent premium of $3.63

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b in August. Despite this, the market fundamentals remain solid, supported by stable global demand growth and a modest increase in production from OPEC member countries.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 105.135 105.135
World Demand 105.135 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439 -
DoC Production 42.40 -

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The supply-demand balance indicates that global oil production is closely aligned with demand, resulting in a balanced market. The slight increase in production from OPEC members, particularly in August, has helped maintain this equilibrium, suggesting no immediate surplus or deficit.

Production Landscape:

OPEC member countries have seen a production increase of 509 tb/d in August, averaging about 42.40 mb/d. Key contributors include Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE, which are maintaining their output levels to support market stability.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia. The demand in OECD countries is expected to grow at a slower pace, highlighting the shifting dynamics in global oil consumption.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than the DoC production of 42.40 mb/d. This indicates that countries outside the OPEC agreement are playing a crucial role in meeting global oil supply needs, particularly from the US and Canada.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a commitment to maintaining production levels that support price stability while responding to global demand trends. The organization is likely to continue its cautious approach to production adjustments in the face of fluctuating market conditions.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the market is expected to remain stable with gradual increases in demand, particularly from emerging economies. OPEC's production strategies will be critical in navigating potential supply disruptions and ensuring market balance.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor production levels closely to ensure alignment with demand forecasts.
  • Focus on enhancing cooperation among OPEC and Non-OPEC producers to stabilize prices.
  • Invest in refining and infrastructure to accommodate shifts in global demand patterns.
  • Stay vigilant about geopolitical developments that may impact supply chains.
  • Consider strategic reserves to buffer against unexpected market fluctuations.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 57
Last Updated: 2025-10-03 23:49:23

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

97.71
Daily: -0.14 (-0.14%)
Weekly: -0.2 (-0.2%)

US_10Y

4.12
Daily: 0.03 (0.76%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.53%)

SP500

6715.79
Daily: 0.44 (0.01%)
Weekly: 54.58 (0.82%)

VIX

16.65
Daily: 0.02 (0.12%)
Weekly: 0.53 (3.29%)

GOLD

3912.1
Daily: 72.4 (1.89%)
Weekly: 91.2 (2.39%)

COPPER

5.09
Daily: 0.19 (3.82%)
Weekly: 0.24 (5.04%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.69
Closest Support: $60.4 0.48% below current price
Closest Resistance: $62.79 3.46% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $60.4 Support
0.236 $62.79 Resistance
0.382 $64.26
0.5 $65.46
0.618 $66.65
0.786 $68.35
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $73.26
1.618 $76.76
2.0 $80.62
2.618 $86.87

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $60.48
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-03 23:49:25
Next Trading Day: UP 0.15%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-03 $60.57 $58.51 $62.64
2025-10-04 $60.74 $58.67 $62.8
2025-10-05 $60.85 $58.78 $62.91
2025-10-06 $60.93 $58.87 $63.0
2025-10-07 $61.0 $58.93 $63.06

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2025-10-03), reaching $60.57.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-03 and 2025-10-07.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The crude oil market is currently experiencing bearish sentiment, with a -0.700 sentiment score indicating negative market outlook. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $3.63, reflecting ongoing supply/demand dynamics and potential geopolitical factors.

With the market structure remaining in backwardation, this may provide short-term trading opportunities as traders could capitalize on price differentials. However, the increasing net short positions among managed money traders suggests heightened volatility risks ahead.

Watch for key support levels around $64.00 for WTI and $67.00 for Brent, with resistance likely forming near the recent highs. The convergence of technical indicators may signal potential reversals or continuations in price trends.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current inventory levels, particularly the decline in OECD crude stocks, which are 208.6 mb below the 2015–2019 average, imply a tightening market that could support prices in the medium term. Producers should consider adjusting production planning as demand from non-OECD countries remains robust, with forecasts suggesting a growth of 1.2 mb/d in 2025.

The bearish sentiment from market positioning may necessitate hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. Monitoring geopolitical developments will be crucial, as they could impact supply reliability and pricing.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Current market conditions suggest potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices trending lower. The average WTI price is around $64.02, while Brent is at $67.26. Consumers should prepare for supply reliability risks due to geopolitical uncertainties and the recent increase in US crude imports.

Given the current market sentiment, it may be prudent to evaluate procurement strategies or consider hedging options to manage price volatility effectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by bearish sentiment, with significant downside risks highlighted by the -0.700 sentiment score. Key driving factors include supply concerns stemming from potential OPEC+ supply increases and weak demand outlooks reflected in the latest news sentiment.

The increasing net short positioning among managed money traders signals caution, while the tightening inventory levels could provide some support. Analysts should closely monitor the interplay between these factors and adjust forecasts accordingly, as shifts in geopolitical tensions could rapidly alter market dynamics.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.

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