Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-05 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/05/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
On Sunday’s video I discussed that we would likely head back down to 63.80 and possibly more…well that didn’t take long. WTI is resting below that critical support/resistance line of 63.80 and may be sizing up for the drop below 61.64 which opens up the 50s. OPEC+ is looking at accelerating returning the remaining cuts in Nov-Dec-Jan - which is a bit odd as this is also normally a weak part of the annual price cycle. But possibly this move puts the OPEC countries in the driver seat with corporate drilling budgets being finalized for 2026 - so this could drop drilling activity more and thus opening up space for more DoC country production. Add in a bit of bearish outlook on the government shutdown and this provides good fuel for the bulls to attempt that push down. 61.64 is the line in the sand.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-05 23:47:02 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil is currently hovering below the critical support level of $63.80, with analysts eyeing a potential dip to $61.64, which could lead to prices slipping into the $50s. OPEC+ is considering accelerating cuts in the upcoming months, a curious move during a typically weak seasonal period. Additionally, concerns about a government shutdown may further fuel bearish sentiment. With the market's volatile nature, traders should keep an eye on geopolitical developments and O...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.53 $0.42
WTI: $60.88 $0.4
Spread: $3.65 (Brent premium of $3.65)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $61.8
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $62.94

MA(20): $63.1

Current Price is 61.8, 9 day MA 62.94, 20 day MA 63.1

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.6081

Signal: -0.3578

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.98

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.98 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 17,712

Avg (20d): 229,732

Ratio: 0.08

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 23.26

%D: 10.85

Stochastic %K: 23.26, %D: 10.85. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.76

+DI: 17.24

-DI: 24.6

ADX: 12.76 (+DI: 17.24, -DI: 24.6). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -76.74

Williams %R: -76.74 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.74

Middle: 63.1

Lower: 60.46

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.74, Middle: 63.1, Lower: 60.46

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13505.0 13501.0 13200.0 12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5833.0 6495.0 6456.0 6263.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3751.0 4484.0 3897.0 4461.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16168.0 16476.0 16353.0 15751.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2082.0 2011.0 2559.0 1801.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 416546.0 414754.0 413042.0 420065.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1695087.0 1687905.0 1649879.0 1636650.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 220694.0 216569.0 220083.0 218548.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 123577.0 122999.0 122921.0 117116.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $64.53, change $+0.42. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $60.88, change $+0.4. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.65 (Brent premium of $3.65). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.53
0.42
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$60.88
0.4
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.65
Brent premium of $3.65

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices amid stable global economic growth. While production from OPEC member countries has seen an increase, global oil demand is forecasted to grow steadily, indicating a balanced yet cautious market outlook.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.4931 105.1352
Non-DoC Production 51.4390 -
DoC Production 42.40 -

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight deficit in the market, with total world production at 104.4931 mb/d against a demand of 105.1352 mb/d. This situation suggests that the market may experience upward pressure on prices if the trend continues, particularly if production does not keep pace with demand growth.

Production Landscape:

Major producers such as the US, Brazil, and Canada are driving non-DoC production growth, while OPEC's DoC production has increased to approximately 42.40 mb/d. The overall production landscape shows a robust contribution from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources, with the Americas leading in total output.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries, particularly China and India. Demand in the OECD is expected to grow at a slower pace, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging economies.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production stands at 51.4390 mb/d, significantly contributing to global supply compared to DoC production of 42.40 mb/d. This highlights the increasing importance of non-OPEC producers in the global oil market, particularly in meeting rising demand.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position reflects a careful balancing act between maintaining production levels and responding to fluctuating demand. The organization is likely to continue its strategy of cautious production adjustments to stabilize prices in the face of increasing non-OPEC supply.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

With stable economic growth projected and ongoing demand increases, the oil market is expected to remain tight. However, potential geopolitical tensions and shifts in production strategies from non-OPEC countries could introduce volatility in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the production levels of non-OPEC countries as they significantly impact global supply dynamics.
  • Stay informed on geopolitical developments that could affect oil prices and supply chains.
  • Consider the implications of shifting demand patterns towards emerging markets for strategic planning.
  • Evaluate the potential for price volatility due to the current supply-demand imbalance.
  • Engage in risk management strategies to mitigate exposure to market fluctuations.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 31
Last Updated: 2025-10-05 23:49:40

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (7 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.02
Daily: 0.3 (0.31%)
Weekly: 0.25 (0.25%)

US_10Y

4.12
Daily: 0.03 (0.76%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.53%)

SP500

6715.79
Daily: 0.44 (0.01%)
Weekly: 54.58 (0.82%)

VIX

16.65
Daily: 0.02 (0.12%)
Weekly: 0.53 (3.29%)

GOLD

3950.0
Daily: 69.2 (1.78%)
Weekly: 109.2 (2.84%)

COPPER

5.1
Daily: 0.04 (0.87%)
Weekly: 0.3 (6.18%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $61.8
Closest Support: $60.4 2.27% below current price
Closest Resistance: $62.79 1.6% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $60.4 Support
0.236 $62.79 Resistance
0.382 $64.26
0.5 $65.46
0.618 $66.65
0.786 $68.35
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $73.26
1.618 $76.76
2.0 $80.62
2.618 $86.87

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $60.88
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-05 23:49:43
Next Trading Day: UP 0.29%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-04 $61.05 $59.03 $63.07
2025-10-05 $61.18 $59.16 $63.2
2025-10-06 $61.29 $59.27 $63.31
2025-10-07 $61.34 $59.32 $63.36
2025-10-08 $61.3 $59.28 $63.32

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.29% for the next trading day (2025-10-04), reaching $61.05.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-04 and 2025-10-08.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.700, reflecting increased pessimism among traders. The $64.53 for Brent and $60.88 for WTI suggest potential resistance levels at these prices, while support could be identified near the recent lows due to the backwardation structure indicating strong physical market fundamentals.

The widening $3.65 Brent-WTI spread signals differences in supply/demand dynamics, which could present short-term trading opportunities. Traders should closely monitor the increasing bearish positioning among managed money, as the market may experience volatility if speculators continue to move net short.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current inventory levels, with OECD crude stocks at 1,317 mb, indicate a tightening supply scenario compared to historical averages. This may influence production planning, suggesting that producers should consider optimizing output in response to stronger demand forecasts in non-OECD regions, which are expected to grow by 1.2 mb/d in 2025.

Given the bearish sentiment in the market, hedging strategies should be revisited to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines. Producers may also want to assess their exposure to the volatile geopolitical landscape that could impact supply reliability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices currently at $60.88 and $64.53 respectively. The increased geopolitical tensions and the tightening supply of crude could lead to supply reliability risks, necessitating a review of procurement strategies.

Given the bearish sentiment in the market and the recent drop in product stocks, it may be prudent to consider hedging against price increases while monitoring the market for signs of recovery in demand, particularly in the non-OECD regions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and strong physical fundamentals. The overall market sentiment score of -0.700 indicates a prevailing bearish outlook driven by concerns over global supply glut and weak energy demand. Despite this, the backwardation in major benchmarks suggests underlying strength in physical markets.

Key factors to monitor include the supply-demand balance with global oil demand growth at 1.3 mb/d in 2025, and the significant positioning of managed money traders, which could indicate potential shifts in market direction. Analysts should prepare for increased volatility as geopolitical developments unfold and market sentiments evolve.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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