Crude Oil Radar

Published: 10/06/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

The oil market has been thinking we have too much supply on the market - and they are right but in a different lens than most think. Supply/Demand balances have been much better globally than traders are giving credit. Inventories globally have been very healthy indicating that we have solid demand for our current level of supply. Into this winter and first quarter of 2026 (normally a very bearish time frame - just due to seasonal demand), OPEC+ is releasing more barrels into the market +137,000 bopd for November (and likely every month there after for 12 months). Balance this with a sharp inventory increase in Diesel in the US - and we may have the canary in the coalmine - how quickly it is increasing is an indication of reduced industrial activity and possibly farm activity (due to lower demand from tariffs). Capping off the fundamentals - we are balanced today but need demand increases in 2026 to remain balanced. Technicals are right at the key support/resistance level of 61.64 - this is the last line of support before dropping to the 50s. My stance remains that I think we drop into the 50s and then in 2026 start a long term structural increase in crude demand and crude prices. 61.64 is the number to watch this week with 63.80 and 66.84 as resistance while 67.35 and 53.87 are the support levels.

Updated: 2025-10-06 23:47:12 Length: 480 chars

Crude oil markets are grappling with a paradox: despite healthy global supply and demand balances, OPEC+ plans to release an additional 137,000 bopd starting in November, potentially muddying the waters. While current inventories indicate robust demand, an uptick in U.S. diesel stockpiles could signal weakening industrial activity. Technically, prices are hovering around crucial support at $61.64. A drop below this could push prices into the 50s, while resistance levels at...

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -3/5

Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.53 $0.42

WTI: $60.88 $0.4

Spread: $3.65 (Brent premium of $3.65)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $61.72

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $62.93

MA(20): $63.09

Current Price is 61.72, 9 day MA 62.93, 20 day MA 63.09

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.6145

Signal: -0.3591

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.61

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.61 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 202,918

Avg (20d): 236,470

Ratio: 0.86

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 21.93

%D: 10.41

Stochastic %K: 21.93, %D: 10.41. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 12.52

+DI: 18.26

-DI: 24.3

ADX: 12.52 (+DI: 18.26, -DI: 24.3). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -78.07

Williams %R: -78.07 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.74

Middle: 63.09

Lower: 60.45

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.74, Middle: 63.09, Lower: 60.45

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13505.0	13501.0	13200.0	12733.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5833.0	6495.0	6456.0	6263.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3751.0	4484.0	3897.0	4461.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16168.0	16476.0	16353.0	15751.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2082.0	2011.0	2559.0	1801.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	416546.0	414754.0	413042.0	420065.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1695087.0	1687905.0	1649879.0	1636650.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	220694.0	216569.0	220083.0	218548.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	123577.0	122999.0	122921.0	117116.0

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $64.53, change $+0.42. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $60.88, change $+0.4. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.65 (Brent premium of $3.65). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.53

0.42

(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$60.88

0.4

(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.65

Brent premium of $3.65

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices amid stable global economic growth. Despite a drop in the OPEC Reference Basket value, production levels remain robust, particularly among non-DoC countries, indicating a complex supply-demand landscape.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Production (mb/d)	Demand (mb/d)
World Production	104.4931	105.1352
Non-DoC Production	51.4390	N/A
DoC Production	42.4000	N/A

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The data indicates a slight surplus in the global oil market, with total production at 104.4931 mb/d against a demand of 105.1352 mb/d. This surplus is primarily driven by increased production from non-DoC countries, which may exert downward pressure on prices if demand does not keep pace.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the Americas (25.19 mb/d), Europe (13.51 mb/d), and the Middle East (9.01 mb/d). Notably, the US leads with a significant share of 22.07 mb/d, reflecting its ongoing dominance in the oil market.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD regions, particularly China (16.85 mb/d) and India (5.70 mb/d). The OECD regions are expected to see modest growth, indicating a shift in demand dynamics towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production stands at 51.4390 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 42.4000 mb/d. This disparity highlights the increasing role of non-OPEC producers in the global oil supply, which may challenge OPEC's influence over market prices.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach amid declining prices and increased competition from non-OPEC producers. The organization may consider adjusting production levels to stabilize prices while balancing the interests of member countries.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

In the coming months, market developments may be influenced by geopolitical factors, changes in global demand patterns, and potential adjustments in OPEC's production strategy. Continued monitoring of economic indicators will be crucial for anticipating shifts in the oil market.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor the production levels of non-DoC countries as they continue to influence global supply dynamics.
Assess the impact of emerging market demand, particularly from China and India, on global oil prices.
Consider strategic production adjustments to mitigate price volatility in response to market conditions.
Stay informed on geopolitical developments that could affect oil supply chains and market stability.
Evaluate the potential for collaboration with non-OPEC producers to enhance market stability.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH

Average Polarity: 0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 29

Last Updated: 2025-10-06 23:50:11

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.16

Daily: 0.44 (0.45%)

Weekly: 0.39 (0.4%)

US_10Y

4.16

Daily: 0.04 (1.04%)

Weekly: 0.01 (0.34%)

SP500

6740.28

Daily: 24.49 (0.36%)

Weekly: 51.82 (0.77%)

VIX

16.37

Daily: -0.28 (-1.68%)

Weekly: 0.09 (0.55%)

GOLD

3984.4

Daily: 103.6 (2.67%)

Weekly: 143.6 (3.74%)

COPPER

5.04

Daily: -0.02 (-0.33%)

Weekly: 0.24 (4.92%)

Current Price: $61.72

Closest Support: $60.4 2.14% below current price

Closest Resistance: $62.79 1.73% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $60.4 Support

0.236 $62.79 Resistance

0.382 $64.26

0.5 $65.46

0.618 $66.65

0.786 $68.35

1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $73.26

1.618 $76.76

2.0 $80.62

2.618 $86.87

Current Price: $60.88

Forecast Generated: 2025-10-06 23:50:14

Next Trading Day: UP 0.28%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-10-04	$61.05	$59.03	$63.07
2025-10-05	$61.17	$59.15	$63.2
2025-10-06	$61.28	$59.26	$63.3
2025-10-07	$61.33	$59.31	$63.35
2025-10-08	$61.29	$59.27	$63.32

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.28% for the next trading day (2025-10-04), reaching $61.05.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-04 and 2025-10-08.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The Crude Oil market is currently displaying mixed signals. The bearish sentiment from hedge funds indicates potential volatility in the near term. The $3.65 Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics, with Brent maintaining a premium influenced by geopolitical factors and transportation costs.

Traders should monitor support levels around $64.00 for WTI and $67.00 for Brent, as these levels may provide short-term opportunities. Additionally, the recent shift in managed money positioning, which has turned net short, suggests a potential for price corrections, making it crucial to remain cautious of risk factors that could lead to further declines.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With a projected increase in non-DoC liquids production, producers should consider adjusting their production planning accordingly. The $69.73 average OPEC Reference Basket reflects a neutral sentiment in pricing, which may impact hedging strategies.

Inventory levels are a critical component, as OECD crude stocks are currently lower than historical averages, indicating a tightening market. Producers may need to enhance their hedging to mitigate potential price fluctuations due to the volatile market sentiment and ongoing geopolitical tensions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and supply chain dynamics. The $67.26 average for Brent and $64.02 for WTI indicate that procurement strategies may need to be adjusted in anticipation of price volatility.

Additionally, the recent increase in US crude imports and the tightening of product balances suggest supply reliability risks. Consumers should consider proactive hedging strategies to mitigate the impact of fluctuating prices on their operations.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is characterized by bullish sentiment despite recent price declines. Key drivers include stable global economic growth forecasts and an unchanged global oil demand growth rate of 1.3 mb/d for 2025. However, bearish positioning from managed money indicates potential shifts in market dynamics.

Analysts should closely monitor fundamental balances, particularly the decline in OECD commercial inventories, which could support prices in the medium term. The interplay of supply from non-DoC countries and OPEC's production strategies will be pivotal in shaping future price trajectories.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.