Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-10 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/10/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Well - despite the Israel-Hamas/Iran war not having any direct impact on Oil, there has always been an implied war premium. Today there is a Gaza Peace deal that has been reached (at least temporarily) - now this is still a fluid situation and I would advise to be ready for anything. But this is taking Crude below the $60 mark (which we have been calling for since late August) - this is combined with some bearish stats on Distillates in the US. Add in increased OPEC+ barrels and we have a bearish trader and news sentiment….BUT let me stress a few things to consider - the US production is virtually stalled (downward prices will do nothing to increase production), OPEC+ can raise quotas but can they increase production (Saudi & UAE - yes, every other country is likely at their max output), and other countries are not growing oil supply. This sets up a supply shortfall if (that’s a big IF) demand is the same or even growing. I think this move into the 50s will likely linger into early 2026, then in 2026 - we will start a very strong move up and build back to the 70-80s (at least). That said - here’s what to watch: 61.64 (recently broken support is now resistance) and 57.35 (the likely next stop on the downside). And obviously a big psychological number at 60.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-10 23:46:50 Length: 480 chars
Crude oil is currently feeling the heat as geopolitical tensions cool. Despite the Israel-Hamas situation not directly impacting oil, a Gaza Peace deal has triggered a drop below the $60 mark, which we anticipated since August. Coupled with bearish distillate stats and increased OPEC+ barrels, market sentiment is leaning negative. Yet, with U.S. production stalled and OPEC+ struggling to boost output, we may face a supply shortfall if demand holds steady. Watch for critica...

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.22 $1.03
WTI: $61.51 $1.04
Spread: $3.71 (Brent premium of $3.71)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $58.24
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $61.25

MA(20): $62.73

Current Price is 58.24, 9 day MA 61.25, 20 day MA 62.73

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.8794

Signal: -0.5577

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 33.27

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 33.27 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 305,094

Avg (20d): 238,436

Ratio: 1.28

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 0.24

%D: 18.13

Stochastic %K: 0.24, %D: 18.13. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.35

+DI: 15.71

-DI: 34.14

ADX: 14.35 (+DI: 15.71, -DI: 34.14). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -99.76

Williams %R: -99.76 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT LOWER

Upper: 66.17

Middle: 62.73

Lower: 59.28

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout lower. Upper: 66.17, Middle: 62.73, Lower: 59.28

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13629.0 13505.0 13300.0 12833.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6403.0 5833.0 6628.0 6210.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3590.0 3751.0 3878.0 3244.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16297.0 16168.0 15691.0 15492.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2813.0 2082.0 2750.0 2966.0
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 420261.0 416546.0 416931.0 428687.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1694142.0 1695087.0 1649630.0 1636291.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 219093.0 220694.0 221202.0 216683.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 121559.0 123577.0 121637.0 113844.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $65.22, change $-1.03. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $61.51, change $-1.04. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.71 (Brent premium of $3.71). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.22
1.03
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$61.51
1.04
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.71
Brent premium of $3.71

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a slight decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $69.73/b in August. Despite a stable global economic growth forecast, the oil market is experiencing bearish sentiment among traders, leading to a potential imbalance in supply and demand dynamics.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.4931 105.1352
Non-DoC Production 51.4390 N/A
DoC Production 42.4000 N/A

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The total world production stands at approximately 104.49 mb/d, while demand is slightly higher at 105.14 mb/d, indicating a supply deficit of about 0.65 mb/d. This imbalance could lead to upward pressure on prices if the trend continues, especially if global demand grows as forecasted.

Production Landscape:

Major producers include the US with 22.07 mb/d, followed by Canada at 6.06 mb/d, and Brazil at 4.39 mb/d. The OPEC DoC countries have increased their crude oil production to 42.40 mb/d, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 509 tb/d. This trend indicates a robust response to market conditions by OPEC members.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, driving most of this growth. The OECD demand is expected to increase modestly, highlighting a divergence in demand growth between developed and developing economies.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.44 mb/d, significantly contributing to global supply. In contrast, DoC production is at 42.40 mb/d. The Non-DoC countries are expected to continue leading production growth, primarily driven by the US and Brazil, while OPEC's DoC members are maintaining stable output levels.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach amid bearish market sentiment. The organization may consider adjusting production levels to stabilize prices, especially if the supply-demand imbalance persists. The strategic focus remains on balancing output to support price stability.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

In the coming months, market developments are likely to be influenced by geopolitical factors, economic growth in emerging markets, and OPEC's production strategies. Continued monitoring of inventory levels and global economic indicators will be crucial for anticipating market shifts.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the supply-demand balance closely, as a persistent deficit could lead to price increases.
  • OPEC may need to consider production adjustments to counteract bearish market sentiment.
  • Focus on emerging markets, particularly China and India, as key drivers of future demand growth.
  • Stay informed on geopolitical developments that could impact oil supply and prices.
  • Evaluate the potential for increased Non-DoC production to affect overall market dynamics.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 68
Last Updated: 2025-10-10 23:49:38

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Geopolitical (6 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.85
Daily: -0.69 (-0.69%)
Weekly: 0.74 (0.76%)

US_10Y

4.05
Daily: -0.1 (-2.34%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.67%)

SP500

6552.51
Daily: -182.6 (-2.71%)
Weekly: -187.77 (-2.79%)

VIX

21.66
Daily: 5.23 (31.83%)
Weekly: 5.29 (32.32%)

GOLD

4035.5
Daily: 89.2 (2.26%)
Weekly: 87.0 (2.2%)

COPPER

4.84
Daily: -0.23 (-4.54%)
Weekly: -0.14 (-2.85%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $58.24
Closest Support: $58.22 0.03% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.12 4.95% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $58.22 Support
0.236 $61.12 Resistance
0.382 $62.91
0.5 $64.37
0.618 $65.82
0.786 $67.88
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $73.85
1.618 $78.11
2.0 $82.8
2.618 $90.4

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $61.51
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-10 23:49:40
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.08%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-10 $61.46 $59.48 $63.45
2025-10-11 $61.37 $59.39 $63.36
2025-10-12 $61.34 $59.36 $63.33
2025-10-13 $61.37 $59.39 $63.36
2025-10-14 $61.43 $59.44 $63.41

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-10-10), reaching $61.46.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-10 and 2025-10-14.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The bearish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.750, indicates potential downward pressure on prices. The $69.73 average for the OPEC Reference Basket suggests resistance around this level, while the $64.02 for NYMEX WTI indicates a support level that traders should monitor closely. The widening $3.71 Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing differences in supply-demand dynamics, which can present short-term trading opportunities. With managed money positions turning net short, traders should be cautious of increasing volatility and consider potential price corrections.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current inventory levels, with OECD crude stocks at 1,317 mb, indicate a tight supply situation compared to historical averages. Producers may need to adjust their production planning to account for potential market volatility. Hedging strategies should be aligned with the bearish sentiment, as the managed money net position has decreased, suggesting cautious market engagement. The steady growth in non-DoC liquids production may also impact pricing strategies.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices averaging $64.02 for WTI and $67.26 for Brent, consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs. The recent supply reliability risks highlighted by geopolitical tensions and changing inventory levels may affect procurement strategies. As product imports remain high, refineries may experience pressure on margins, necessitating a review of hedging strategies to manage costs effectively.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and tight supply dynamics. Key drivers include the $3.71 Brent-WTI spread and bearish positioning from managed money, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment. The stable global economic growth forecast combined with fluctuating oil demand (1.3 mb/d growth projected for 2025) suggests a complex interplay of factors that could lead to shifts in outlook. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and inventory movements as indicators of future price trends.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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