Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-16 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/16/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude keeps sliding as oversupply fears crush last week’s geopolitical premium. WTI closed at $57.46 (−1.4%) and Brent at $61.06 (−1.4%), extending a three-day sell-off. Big inventory builds (+3.5 MM bbl), record U.S. output (13.64 MM bpd), and talk of a Trump-Putin meeting all weighed on sentiment. India’s walk-back on halting Russian oil and Iraq’s export restart added more barrels to an already heavy market. Crude finally reached the target we laid out in the beginning of the week at 57.35 and I think the path is set to head to 53.87 next - although there could be support at this level. The weekly petroleum status report was really bearish - especially with net imports masking potentially how bearish we could be right now. On the bull side we did have a bigger draw on distillates. Looking for a pause at 57.35 and a target of 53.87.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-16 23:46:54 Length: 507 chars
Crude oil prices continue their downward slide, with WTI at $57.46 and Brent at $61.06, reflecting a three-day sell-off driven by oversupply fears. Recent inventory builds of 3.5 million barrels and record U.S. production at 13.64 million bpd have compounded bearish sentiment. Geopolitical tensions are overshadowed by India's decision to resume Russian oil imports, further pressuring prices. With targets set at $57.35 and $53.87, traders should brace for potential volatility amid high inventory levels.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $61.91 $0.48
WTI: $58.27 $0.43
Spread: $3.64 (Brent premium of $3.64)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $57.34
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $60.02

MA(20): $61.68

Current Price is 57.34, 9 day MA 60.02, 20 day MA 61.68

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -1.3945

Signal: -0.9361

Days since crossover: 12

MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 31.73

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 31.73 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 3,220

Avg (20d): 247,081

Ratio: 0.01

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

OVERSOLD

%K: 4.28

%D: 7.57

Stochastic %K: 4.28, %D: 7.57. Signal: oversold

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 22.05

+DI: 12.05

-DI: 36.58

ADX: 22.05 (+DI: 12.05, -DI: 36.58). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -95.72

Williams %R: -95.72 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 66.18

Middle: 61.68

Lower: 57.17

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 66.18, Middle: 61.68, Lower: 57.17

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13636.0 13629.0 13400.0 12900.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5525.0 6403.0 6239.0 5793.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4466.0 3590.0 3794.0 4520.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15130.0 16297.0 15590.0 15567.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1059.0 2813.0 2445.0 1272.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 423785.0 420261.0 422741.0 425885.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1696565.0 1694142.0 1641911.0 1628273.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 218826.0 219093.0 214898.0 215122.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 117030.0 121559.0 118513.0 111646.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $61.91, change $-0.48. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $58.27, change $-0.43. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.64 (Brent premium of $3.64). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$61.91
0.48
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$58.27
0.43
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.64
Brent premium of $3.64

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a stable production environment with a slight increase in crude oil prices, alongside steady global demand growth. The balance between supply and demand remains tight, particularly with the ongoing contributions from both DoC and Non-DoC producers.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production
  • Americas: 25.19
  • Europe: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific: 7.13
  • Total OECD: 45.83
  • China: 16.85
  • India: 5.70
  • Other Asia: 9.89
  • Latin America: 6.89
  • Middle East: 9.01
  • Africa: 4.80
  • Russia: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia: 1.31
  • Other Europe: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD: 59.31
  • Americas Demand: 25.19
  • Europe Demand: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13
  • Total OECD Demand: 45.83
  • China Demand: 16.85
  • India Demand: 5.70
  • Other Asia Demand: 9.89
  • Latin America Demand: 6.89
  • Middle East Demand: 9.01
  • Africa Demand: 4.80
  • Russia Demand: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31
  • Other Europe Demand: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.31
  • Total World Demand: 105.14

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The analysis indicates that global oil demand is projected at 105.14 mb/d while total production stands at approximately 105.14 mb/d, suggesting a balanced market. However, slight surpluses or deficits may arise in specific regions, particularly with Non-DoC production outpacing demand in the Americas and Europe.

Production Landscape:

Major producers such as the US, Brazil, and Canada are leading the growth in Non-DoC production, which is expected to increase by 0.8 mb/d in 2025. OPEC's DoC production has also seen a month-on-month increase, averaging about 43.05 mb/d, indicating a robust commitment to maintaining output levels.

Demand Patterns:

Demand growth is primarily driven by non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, with forecasts suggesting an increase of 1.2 mb/d in 2025. Challenges remain in OECD regions where demand growth is sluggish, particularly in Europe and Japan.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected to average 51.44 mb/d, significantly contributing to global supply, while DoC production is expected to average 43.05 mb/d. This highlights the critical role of Non-DoC producers in meeting global oil demand, especially in a tightening market.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production levels, balancing the need to support prices while ensuring market stability. The organization is likely to continue monitoring global economic indicators and adjust its strategies accordingly.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

In the coming months, market participants should anticipate potential fluctuations in crude prices due to seasonal demand changes and geopolitical factors affecting supply. Continued growth in Non-DoC production may also exert pressure on OPEC's pricing strategies.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely, as they significantly impact global supply dynamics.
  • Evaluate the implications of sluggish demand growth in OECD regions on pricing strategies.
  • Stay informed on geopolitical developments that could disrupt supply chains.
  • Consider the seasonal variations in demand when planning inventory and production strategies.
  • Engage with emerging markets, particularly in Asia, to capitalize on growth opportunities.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 71
Last Updated: 2025-10-16 23:49:35

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (6 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.18
Daily: -0.61 (-0.61%)
Weekly: -0.8 (-0.81%)

US_10Y

3.98
Daily: -0.07 (-1.73%)
Weekly: -0.08 (-1.85%)

SP500

6629.07
Daily: -41.99 (-0.63%)
Weekly: 76.56 (1.17%)

VIX

25.31
Daily: 4.67 (22.63%)
Weekly: 3.65 (16.85%)

GOLD

4367.4
Daily: 190.5 (4.56%)
Weekly: 391.5 (9.85%)

COPPER

4.96
Daily: -0.01 (-0.29%)
Weekly: 0.11 (2.25%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $57.34
Closest Support: $56.98 0.63% below current price
Closest Resistance: $60.17 4.94% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.98 Support
0.236 $60.17 Resistance
0.382 $62.15
0.5 $63.75
0.618 $65.34
0.786 $67.61
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $74.19
1.618 $78.87
2.0 $84.04
2.618 $92.4

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $57.46
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-16 23:49:37
Next Trading Day: UP 0.18%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-17 $57.56 $55.57 $59.56
2025-10-18 $57.57 $55.58 $59.56
2025-10-19 $57.66 $55.66 $59.65
2025-10-20 $57.73 $55.74 $59.72
2025-10-21 $57.77 $55.77 $59.76

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.18% for the next trading day (2025-10-17), reaching $57.56.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-17 and 2025-10-21.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The market is currently showing a bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.600, indicating potential downward pressure on prices. The $67.58 for ICE Brent and $63.53 for NYMEX WTI suggest a neutral trading range, but the widening $4.05 Brent-WTI spread may offer short-term trading opportunities, reflecting differing supply/demand dynamics.

The flattening of forward curves and the maintained net short positions by hedge funds suggest caution. Traders should monitor for support levels around $61.91 (Brent) and $58.27 (WTI) while being aware of potential volatility spikes due to geopolitical tensions and inventory fluctuations.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With stable demand growth forecasted at 1.3 mb/d in 2025, producers should align production planning with the projected increase in $42.5 mb/d demand for DoC crude. Current inventory levels are below historical averages, which may support pricing stability. However, the bearish sentiment and increased production from non-DoC countries necessitate a prudent hedging strategy to mitigate price risks.

The recent increase in crude imports and product exports from the US indicates a potential for competitive pricing strategies, especially with the robust USGC middle distillate market. Producers should also consider the impact of refinery margins and seasonal maintenance on output and pricing.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI trading around $63.53 and Brent at $67.58. The geopolitical risks surrounding supply chains and the recent bearish sentiment can impact procurement strategies. The tightening of diesel markets in Europe and Asia may also affect product availability.

Given the bearish sentiment and declining crude stocks, it is advisable to consider hedging strategies to lock in prices and ensure supply reliability. Monitoring inventory levels and geopolitical developments will be crucial for effective procurement decisions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a combination of bearish sentiment and stable demand growth forecasts. The key driving factors include global economic stability, inventory levels, and geopolitical tensions affecting supply dynamics. The sentiment score of -0.600 reflects ongoing concerns over potential supply gluts and trade tensions, particularly between the US and China.

Analysts should focus on the implications of the $4.05 Brent-WTI spread, which indicates market divergence and potential trading opportunities. The mixed tanker market signals volatility in shipping costs that could influence overall product pricing. Overall, while the fundamentals suggest moderate growth, the prevailing bearish sentiment warrants close monitoring for potential outlook shifts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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