OPEC Market Analysis
Executive Summary:
The current OPEC market situation reflects a steady increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $70.39/b in September. Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while production from non-DoC countries is expected to rise, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance in the near term.
Key Market Metrics:
| Category |
Value (mb/d) |
| World Production |
- Americas: 25.19
- Europe: 13.51
- Asia Pacific: 7.13
- Total OECD: 45.83
- China: 16.85
- India: 5.70
- Other Asia: 9.89
- Latin America: 6.89
- Middle East: 9.01
- Africa: 4.80
- Russia: 4.02
- Other Eurasia: 1.31
- Other Europe: 0.82
- Total Non-OECD: 59.31
|
| World Demand |
- Americas Demand: 25.19
- Europe Demand: 13.51
- Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13
- Total OECD Demand: 45.83
- China Demand: 16.85
- India Demand: 5.70
- Other Asia Demand: 9.89
- Latin America Demand: 6.89
- Middle East Demand: 9.01
- Africa Demand: 4.80
- Russia Demand: 4.02
- Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31
- Other Europe Demand: 0.82
- Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.31
- Total World Demand: 105.14
|
| Non-DoC Production |
- US Non-DoC Production: 22.07
- Canada Non-DoC Production: 6.06
- Chile Non-DoC Production: 0.01
- Total OECD Non-DoC Production: 32.14
- China Non-DoC Production: 4.61
- India Non-DoC Production: 0.82
- Latin America Non-DoC Production: 7.53
- Middle East Non-DoC Production: 2.01
- Africa Non-DoC Production: 2.28
- Total Non-OECD Non-DoC Production: 19.30
|
| DoC Production |
- DoC Crude Production: 43.05 (average for September)
|
Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:
The current supply-demand balance indicates a slight surplus in the market, with total world demand at 105.14 mb/d and total production (including DoC and Non-DoC) projected to be around 104.36 mb/d. This suggests a tightening market, particularly as demand for DoC crude is expected to rise to 42.5 mb/d in 2025, reflecting a potential deficit in the coming months if production does not keep pace with demand growth.
Production Landscape:
In 2025, the Americas remain the largest producer with 25.19 mb/d, followed by the Middle East at 9.01 mb/d. Notably, the US Non-DoC production is projected to be 22.07 mb/d, indicating its significant role in global supply. The production from DoC countries has increased to 43.05 mb/d, highlighting OPEC's influence in the market.
Demand Patterns:
Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, driving this growth. The Americas and Europe are projected to see modest increases, but overall, the demand from non-OECD countries will dominate, reflecting a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.
Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:
Non-DoC production is projected at 51.44 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 43.05 mb/d. This indicates that while OPEC countries are crucial to supply, non-OPEC producers, especially the US, play an increasingly dominant role in the global oil market. The growth in Non-DoC production is expected to continue, particularly from the US and Brazil.
OPEC's Strategic Position:
OPEC's current market position is strengthened by a stable increase in crude prices and a controlled production increase from its member countries. The organization is likely to maintain its production strategies to balance market dynamics, especially in light of growing demand from non-OECD countries.
Forward-Looking Indicators:
As demand continues to rise, particularly from Asia, and with the expected growth in Non-DoC production, OPEC may face challenges in maintaining its market share. However, the strategic management of production levels will be critical in navigating potential supply-demand imbalances in the coming months.
Key Insights and Recommendations:
- Monitor the growth in Non-DoC production, particularly from the US and Brazil, as it may impact OPEC's market share.
- Evaluate the implications of rising demand from non