Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-22 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/22/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
While India-US potential trade deal undermining Russian exports (which is seen as a supply hit - thus bullish), I remain skeptical that this would really impact the TRUE supply-demand balance. I think this would likely have more impact to Russian income as Russia would likely sell distressed barrels to an intermediary and that intermediary then sells to consumer markets. $61.64 and $57.35 are going to be the range - if bulls take out 61.64 then we see expansion to 63.80 (at a minimum) however I see it more likely as a dip to 57.35 and then 53.87 - that is the likely path I am seeing.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-22 23:46:57 Length: 532 chars
Crude Oil prices have recently surged, buoyed by U.S. sanctions on Russian oil firms and optimism around a potential U.S.-India trade deal, which could limit Russian exports. However, skepticism remains regarding the actual impact on supply-demand dynamics. Current trading levels suggest a range between $61.64 and $57.35; if bulls breach $61.64, we might see a rally towards $63.80. Conversely, a dip to $57.35 seems more likely. Watch closely for inventory reports and geopolitical developments that could influence these trends.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $61.32 $0.31
WTI: $57.82 $0.3
Spread: $3.5 (Brent premium of $3.50)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.14
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $58.43

MA(20): $60.65

Current Price is 60.14, 9 day MA 58.43, 20 day MA 60.65

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -1.3619

Signal: -1.2548

Days since crossover: 16

MACD crossed the line 16 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.35

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.35 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 60,748

Avg (20d): 243,725

Ratio: 0.25

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 57.69

%D: 32.62

Stochastic %K: 57.69, %D: 32.62. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

STRONG DOWNTREND

ADX: 27.0

+DI: 19.83

-DI: 28.86

ADX: 27.0 (+DI: 19.83, -DI: 28.86). Trend: strong downtrend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -42.31

Williams %R: -42.31 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 65.44

Middle: 60.65

Lower: 55.85

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 65.44, Middle: 60.65, Lower: 55.85

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13629.0 13636.0 13500.0 12900.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5918.0 5525.0 5529.0 6208.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4203.0 4466.0 4123.0 4691.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15730.0 15130.0 15755.0 15569.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1715.0 1059.0 1406.0 1516.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 422824.0 423785.0 420550.0 429029.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1693212.0 1696565.0 1635840.0 1628639.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 216679.0 218826.0 212697.0 214974.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 115551.0 117030.0 114979.0 110761.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $61.32, change $+0.31. WTI crude (NOV 25) settled at $57.82, change $+0.3. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.5 (Brent premium of $3.50). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$61.32
0.31
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$57.82
0.3
(NOV 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.5
Brent premium of $3.50

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a modest increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $70.39/b in September. Global oil demand is expected to grow steadily, while production dynamics indicate a slight increase in output from non-DoC countries, suggesting a balanced yet cautious market outlook.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 105.135 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439 -
DoC Production 43.05 42.5

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The balance between global oil production and demand indicates a slight surplus, with total world production at 105.135 mb/d matching demand levels. The DoC production is slightly below the demand for DoC crude, suggesting a potential tightening in the market if production levels do not adjust accordingly.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the Americas (25.186 mb/d), Europe (13.509 mb/d), and the Middle East (9.014 mb/d). Notably, the US leads with 22.068 mb/d of non-DoC production, while OPEC's DoC production stands at approximately 43.05 mb/d, reflecting a significant role in global supply.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, driving this growth. The Americas and Europe are expected to maintain stable demand levels, highlighting the shifting dynamics towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production, primarily driven by the US, Canada, and Brazil, is forecasted to reach 51.439 mb/d, while DoC production is at 43.05 mb/d. This indicates that Non-DoC producers are increasingly contributing to global supply, potentially impacting OPEC's pricing power and market strategies.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position reflects a careful balancing act between maintaining production levels and responding to rising non-DoC output. With demand for DoC crude projected to increase, OPEC may consider adjusting its production strategies to avoid market oversupply.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As global economic growth remains stable, with forecasts of 3.0% for 2025, oil demand is expected to continue its upward trajectory. However, the increasing production from non-DoC countries may challenge OPEC's market influence, necessitating strategic adjustments in their output policies.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor non-DoC production trends closely, as they may influence OPEC's pricing strategies.
  • Consider potential adjustments in DoC production levels to align with rising demand forecasts.
  • Focus on emerging markets, particularly in Asia, as key drivers of future oil demand growth.
  • Evaluate refinery margins and product demand to optimize production strategies.
  • Stay vigilant regarding geopolitical developments that could impact supply chains and market stability.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 59
Last Updated: 2025-10-22 23:49:44

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (8 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.05
Daily: 0.12 (0.12%)
Weekly: 0.66 (0.67%)

US_10Y

3.95
Daily: -0.01 (-0.25%)
Weekly: -0.02 (-0.58%)

SP500

6699.4
Daily: -35.95 (-0.53%)
Weekly: 70.33 (1.06%)

VIX

18.6
Daily: 0.73 (4.09%)
Weekly: -6.71 (-26.51%)

GOLD

4109.1
Daily: 21.4 (0.52%)
Weekly: -171.1 (-4.0%)

COPPER

5.01
Daily: 0.08 (1.64%)
Weekly: 0.05 (1.07%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.14
Closest Support: $59.69 0.75% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.76 2.69% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $59.69 Support
0.382 $61.76 Resistance
0.5 $63.43
0.618 $65.1
0.786 $67.48
1.0 $70.51

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $74.36
1.618 $79.26
2.0 $84.67
2.618 $93.42

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $58.5
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-22 23:49:46
Next Trading Day: UP 0.09%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-23 $58.55 $56.64 $60.46
2025-10-24 $58.56 $56.65 $60.47
2025-10-25 $58.53 $56.62 $60.44
2025-10-26 $58.46 $56.55 $60.37
2025-10-27 $58.42 $56.51 $60.33

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-10-23), reaching $58.55.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-23 and 2025-10-27.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.600, suggests caution for short-term trading strategies. The Brent-WTI spread has increased to $4.05, indicating a potential divergence in supply-demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets.

Traders should monitor the support levels around $63.00 for WTI and $67.00 for Brent, while resistance may form near $70.00 for Brent. The flattening forward curves signal potential volatility, warranting close attention to inventory reports and geopolitical developments.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With global oil demand growth forecast remaining stable at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, producers should align their production planning with these expectations. The recent increase in OECD crude oil inventories suggests a need for hedging strategies to mitigate price risks, especially given the bearish market sentiment.

The current inventory levels indicate a tighter market for products, which could support prices. Producers may benefit from focusing on maximizing efficiency and reducing costs as they navigate through potential price fluctuations.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices react to global supply dynamics and geopolitical tensions. The recent increase in US crude exports to 4.3 mb/d indicates a robust supply but could be offset by seasonal demand increases.

Additionally, with the bearish market sentiment and tightening product inventories, there is a risk of supply reliability issues. Companies should consider procurement strategies that hedge against price volatility while ensuring consistent supply.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently shaped by mixed signals: a bearish sentiment from news analysis, stable demand forecasts, and fluctuating supply levels. The fundamental outlook remains cautious, with managed money positions indicating a weakening bullish trend.

Analysts should focus on the implications of OECD inventory levels and the $4.05 Brent-WTI spread, as these factors will likely influence market dynamics moving forward. The potential for geopolitical disruptions, especially related to sanctions, adds another layer of complexity to the outlook.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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