While India-US potential trade deal undermining Russian exports (which is seen as a supply hit - thus bullish), I remain skeptical that this would really impact the TRUE supply-demand balance. I think this would likely have more impact to Russian income as Russia would likely sell distressed barrels to an intermediary and that intermediary then sells to consumer markets. $61.64 and $57.35 are going to be the range - if bulls take out 61.64 then we see expansion to 63.80 (at a minimum) however I see it more likely as a dip to 57.35 and then 53.87 - that is the likely path I am seeing. After attempting the 61.6 breakout - the failure paints the picture more firm that a drop back to the 50s seems “in the cards” and I think 57.35 is the level next week.