Crude Oil Radar

2025-10-27 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 10/27/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Fundamentals appear to be pretty bearish - with the lone exception being distillate stocks globally which are bullish. Russian sanctions added a little momentum to push crude above $60 - but I don’t see that as really turning anything bullish. $61.64 and $57.35 are going to be the range - if bulls take out 61.64 then we see expansion to 63.80 (at a minimum) however I see it more likely as a dip to 57.35 and then 53.87 - that is the likely path I am seeing. Crude’s recovery to 61.64 is stalled (and for good reason) - I would see this as a tipping point before dropping back to 57.35 (the number I see coming this week.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-10-27 23:46:50 Length: 542 chars
Crude oil fundamentals currently lean bearish, despite distillate stocks showing strength. Recent price action has seen crude hover around $60, with key levels at $61.64 and $57.35, indicating potential for a dip to $57.35. OPEC+ plans to raise output and uncertainty surrounding Russian sanctions are contributing to downward pressure. As we navigate through these turbulent waters, traders should keep an eye on these key resistance and support levels while considering the impact of broader market factors, including global trade dynamics.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.94 $0.05
WTI: $61.5 $0.29
Spread: $4.44 (Brent premium of $4.44)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

NEUTRAL

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $61.32
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.08

MA(20): $60.09

Current Price is 61.32, 9 day MA 59.08, 20 day MA 60.09

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.7214

Signal: -1.0949

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 52.51

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 52.51 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 7,003

Avg (20d): 273,534

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 75.65

%D: 78.94

Stochastic %K: 75.65, %D: 78.94. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 22.3

+DI: 24.04

-DI: 23.43

ADX: 22.3 (+DI: 24.04, -DI: 23.43). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -24.35

Williams %R: -24.35 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 63.65

Middle: 60.09

Lower: 56.53

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 63.65, Middle: 60.09, Lower: 56.53

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13629.0 13636.0 13500.0 12900.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5918.0 5525.0 5529.0 6208.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4203.0 4466.0 4123.0 4691.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15730.0 15130.0 15755.0 15569.67
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1715.0 1059.0 1406.0 1516.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 422824.0 423785.0 420550.0 429029.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1693212.0 1696565.0 1635840.0 1628639.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 216679.0 218826.0 212697.0 214974.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 115551.0 117030.0 114979.0 110761.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $65.94, change $-0.05. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $61.5, change $-0.29. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.44 (Brent premium of $4.44). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.94
0.05
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$61.5
0.29
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.44
Brent premium of $4.44

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a stable yet cautious outlook, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, while production from OPEC members has seen a slight increase. The balance between supply and demand remains tight, indicating potential challenges ahead for price stability and market dynamics.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Value (mb/d)
World Production (Total) 105.135
World Demand (Total) 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439
DoC Production 43.05

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The supply-demand balance indicates that global oil demand is projected to match production levels at approximately 105.135 mb/d. This equilibrium suggests a stable market; however, any disruptions in production or unexpected demand surges could lead to significant price volatility.

Production Landscape:

OPEC's crude oil production has increased by 630 tb/d in September, averaging about 43.05 mb/d. Major contributors include Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which continue to play pivotal roles in stabilizing the market. The overall production from Non-DoC countries, particularly the US and Brazil, is also on the rise, contributing to a competitive landscape.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly Asia, driving this increase. China and India are significant contributors, reflecting their growing industrial needs. However, challenges remain in the form of economic uncertainties and potential shifts towards renewable energy sources.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 43.05 mb/d. This disparity highlights the increasing influence of non-OPEC producers on the global oil supply, which may affect OPEC's pricing power and market strategies moving forward.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach, balancing production increases with the need to maintain price stability. The organization's focus on managing output levels will be crucial in navigating the competitive pressures from Non-DoC producers while responding to fluctuating global demand.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

In the coming months, OPEC may need to adjust its production strategies in response to evolving demand patterns and potential geopolitical developments. Monitoring economic indicators and refining strategies to address the competitive landscape will be essential for maintaining market stability.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely as they significantly impact global supply dynamics.
  • Adjust production levels proactively to respond to demand fluctuations and avoid oversupply situations.
  • Enhance collaboration among OPEC members to ensure cohesive strategies in the face of external market pressures.
  • Invest in market intelligence to better understand emerging demand patterns, particularly in Asia.
  • Consider diversifying energy portfolios to mitigate risks associated with potential shifts towards renewable energy sources.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.4
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 27
Last Updated: 2025-10-27 23:49:30

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.7
Daily: -0.25 (-0.25%)
Weekly: -0.23 (-0.23%)

US_10Y

4.0
Daily: 0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.86%)

SP500

6875.16
Daily: 83.47 (1.23%)
Weekly: 139.81 (2.08%)

VIX

15.79
Daily: -0.58 (-3.54%)
Weekly: -2.08 (-11.64%)

GOLD

3999.5
Daily: -118.9 (-2.89%)
Weekly: -88.2 (-2.16%)

COPPER

5.16
Daily: 0.06 (1.22%)
Weekly: 0.23 (4.57%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $61.32
Closest Support: $60.7 1.01% below current price
Closest Resistance: $62.04 1.17% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $59.04
0.382 $60.7 Support
0.5 $62.04 Resistance
0.618 $63.39
0.786 $65.3
1.0 $67.74

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $70.84
1.618 $74.78
2.0 $79.13
2.618 $86.17

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $61.31
Forecast Generated: 2025-10-27 23:49:37
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.18%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-10-28 $61.2 $58.98 $63.41
2025-10-29 $60.89 $58.67 $63.1
2025-10-30 $60.73 $58.51 $62.94
2025-10-31 $60.75 $58.54 $62.97
2025-11-01 $60.77 $58.56 $62.99

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.18% for the next trading day (2025-10-28), reaching $61.20.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-28 and 2025-11-01.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent neutral market sentiment suggests a lack of strong directional bias, but the $4.44 Brent-WTI spread indicates potential short-term trading opportunities. The resistance level for WTI appears to be around $64.00, while support levels can be identified near $61.50. With hedge funds maintaining a bearish stance, traders should be cautious of potential volatility, particularly given the geopolitical risks related to OPEC's output plans and sanctions on Russian energy.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current balance of supply and demand for 2025 indicates a steady demand for DoC crude at 42.5 mb/d, suggesting stable production planning. However, the recent increase in OECD commercial crude stocks highlights the need for effective hedging strategies to mitigate price fluctuations. Producers should also monitor the impact of geopolitical tensions and inventory levels, especially as refinery margins are tightening due to maintenance seasons.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI trading around $63.53 and Brent at $67.58. The supply reliability risks from geopolitical factors, including sanctions impacting Russian energy, may affect procurement strategies. Additionally, the recent increase in US crude exports and product imports suggests a tightening supply, which could lead to increased costs for refined products, especially in the jet fuel and diesel markets.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of neutral sentiment and bearish positioning among managed money traders, reflecting a cautious outlook. Key driving factors include steady global oil demand growth, projected at 1.3 mb/d in 2025, and a tightening supply due to OPEC's output adjustments. Analysts should closely monitor the geopolitical landscape and inventory levels, as these could shift market dynamics significantly in the near term.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor.

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