Crude Oil Radar

Published: 10/30/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Fundamentals appear to be pretty bearish - with the lone exception being distillate stocks globally which are bullish. Russian sanctions added a little momentum to push crude above $60 - but I don’t see that as really turning anything bullish. $61.64 and $57.35 are going to be the range - if bulls take out 61.64 then we see expansion to 63.80 (at a minimum) however I see it more likely as a dip to 57.35 and then 53.87 - that is the likely path I am seeing. Crude’s recovery to 61.64 is stalled (and for good reason) - I would see this as a tipping point before dropping back to 57.35 (the number I see coming this week)

Updated: 2025-10-30 23:47:14 Length: 539 chars

Crude oil fundamentals are currently bearish, with global distillate stocks being the lone bullish outlier. Recent price action shows crude trading between $57.35 and $61.64, with a potential dip looming to $57.35 as recovery stalls. The dollar's strength and ample supply are contributing to a third consecutive monthly decline in prices. Key resistance lies at $61.64, while a break below $57.35 could see prices test $53.87. Keep an eye on OPEC+ developments and market sentiment as winter approaches, as traders adjust their positions.

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.92 $0.52

WTI: $60.48 $0.33

Spread: $4.44 (Brent premium of $4.44)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $60.15

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $59.91

MA(20): $59.9

Current Price is 60.15, 9 day MA 59.91, 20 day MA 59.9

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.526

Signal: -0.8416

Days since crossover: 6

MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.35

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.35 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 6,159

Avg (20d): 274,499

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 60.9

%D: 61.79

Stochastic %K: 60.9, %D: 61.79. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

WEAK TREND

ADX: 20.01

+DI: 19.83

-DI: 24.55

ADX: 20.01 (+DI: 19.83, -DI: 24.55). Trend: weak trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -39.1

Williams %R: -39.1 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 63.2

Middle: 59.9

Lower: 56.6

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 63.2, Middle: 59.9, Lower: 56.6

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13644.0	13629.0	13500.0	12866.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5051.0	5918.0	6431.0	6201.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4361.0	4203.0	4112.0	4361.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	15219.0	15730.0	16084.0	15715.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	690.0	1715.0	2319.0	1840.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	415966.0	422824.0	426024.0	428077.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1677842.0	1693212.0	1642502.0	1623975.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	210738.0	216679.0	213575.0	213674.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	112189.0	115551.0	113839.0	110313.67

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $64.92, change $+0.52. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $60.48, change $+0.33. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.44 (Brent premium of $4.44). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.92

0.52

(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$60.48

0.33

(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.44

Brent premium of $4.44

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a modest increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $70.39/b in September. Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, while production from non-DoC countries continues to rise, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand dynamics.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Production (mb/d)	Demand (mb/d)
Americas	25.19	25.19
Europe	13.51	13.51
Asia Pacific	7.13	7.13
Total OECD	45.83	45.83
China	16.85	16.85
India	5.70	5.70
Other Asia	9.89	9.89
Latin America	6.89	6.89
Middle East	9.01	9.01
Africa	4.80	4.80
Russia	4.02	4.02
Other Eurasia	1.31	1.31
Other Europe	0.82	0.82
Total Non-OECD	59.31	59.31
Total World	105.14	105.14

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The balance of supply and demand indicates that total world production is aligned with demand at approximately 105.14 mb/d. However, the increase in production from non-DoC countries, particularly the US and Brazil, suggests a potential surplus situation that could impact OPEC's pricing strategies and market share.

Production Landscape:

Production by region shows that the Americas lead with 25.19 mb/d, followed by Non-OECD regions, particularly China and India. The Middle East's production is stable at 9.01 mb/d, while OPEC's DoC production has increased to 43.05 mb/d, reflecting a slight upward trend in compliance with production cuts.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia. The demand in OECD countries remains relatively flat, indicating that growth opportunities lie primarily in emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.44 mb/d, significantly higher than the DoC production of 43.05 mb/d. This disparity highlights the challenges OPEC faces in maintaining its market influence amidst rising output from non-member countries.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production adjustments, as the organization seeks to balance the rising output from non-DoC countries with its own production goals. The stability in crude prices suggests that OPEC may continue to monitor market conditions closely before making any significant policy changes.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As global economic growth remains stable, the oil market is likely to see continued demand growth, particularly in non-OECD regions. However, the increasing production from non-DoC countries may exert downward pressure on prices, prompting OPEC to consider strategic production cuts or adjustments in the near future.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor the production trends of non-DoC countries closely, as they pose a significant challenge to OPEC's market share.
Consider strategic adjustments to production levels to maintain price stability amid rising global supply.
Focus on strengthening relationships with key non-OECD countries to bolster demand for OPEC crude.
Prepare for potential market volatility as global economic conditions evolve and demand patterns shift.
Enhance communication strategies to articulate OPEC's position and strategies to market participants effectively.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.4

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 68

Last Updated: 2025-10-30 23:50:22

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.5

Daily: 0.28 (0.28%)

Weekly: 0.55 (0.55%)

US_10Y

4.09

Daily: 0.03 (0.86%)

Weekly: 0.1 (2.4%)

SP500

6822.34

Daily: -68.25 (-0.99%)

Weekly: 30.65 (0.45%)

VIX

16.91

Daily: -0.01 (-0.06%)

Weekly: 0.54 (3.3%)

GOLD

4014.4

Daily: 30.7 (0.77%)

Weekly: -104.0 (-2.53%)

COPPER

5.1

Daily: -0.14 (-2.61%)

Weekly: 0.0 (0.07%)

Current Price: $60.15

Closest Support: $58.73 2.36% below current price

Closest Resistance: $60.2 0.08% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73 Support

0.382 $60.2 Resistance

0.5 $61.38

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $60.57

Forecast Generated: 2025-10-30 23:50:24

Next Trading Day: UP 0.07%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-10-31	$60.62	$58.39	$62.84
2025-11-01	$60.72	$58.49	$62.95
2025-11-02	$60.76	$58.54	$62.99
2025-11-03	$60.74	$58.51	$62.97
2025-11-04	$60.73	$58.5	$62.96

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.07% for the next trading day (2025-10-31), reaching $60.62.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-31 and 2025-11-04.
The average confidence interval width is ~7.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

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For Energy Traders:

The Crude Oil market is currently showing bearish sentiment with a sentiment score of -0.400, indicating potential downward pressure on prices. The $64.92 Brent crude and $60.48 WTI crude prices suggest a balance of supply and demand, with the Brent-WTI spread at $4.44, reflecting ongoing discrepancies in global supply dynamics.

The support level for WTI could be tested around $60, while resistance may be observed near $65. Traders should be cautious of volatility driven by geopolitical tensions and inventory data releases, which could create risk for short-term positions.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the current bearish market sentiment and crude oil prices under pressure, producers should evaluate their hedging strategies to protect against potential price declines. The increase in 630 tb/d in DoC crude production indicates competitive supply dynamics, which could impact pricing.

The balance of OECD commercial inventories shows a decline in crude stocks, which may present opportunities for strategic production planning. However, the risk of overproduction in a declining price environment remains. Monitoring inventory levels will be crucial for adjusting production rates.

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For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. The current prices of $60.48 for WTI and $64.92 for Brent could lead to risks in procurement strategies, especially if geopolitical events escalate.

The tightening of product markets, particularly in diesel, suggests that hedging against price increases may be prudent. Furthermore, the balance of supply reliability is under pressure due to inventory levels and geopolitical factors, making it essential to assess long-term contracts and procurement strategies.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish outlook, with technical indicators showing a potential for continued price declines. The balance of supply and demand remains tenuous, with global oil demand growth forecasts stable at around 1.3 mb/d, while supply from non-DoC countries continues to rise.

Analysts should focus on the implications of the current positioning of managed money traders, who are net short on crude oil futures, indicating a lack of confidence in price recovery. The sentiment analysis reveals a significant bearish trend, suggesting that market conditions may lead to further downward adjustments in crude oil prices in the near term.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific investment guidance.