Crude Oil Radar

Published: 10/31/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Fundamentals appear to be pretty bearish - with the lone exception being distillate stocks globally which are bullish. Russian sanctions added a little momentum to push crude above $60 - but I don’t see that as really turning anything bullish. $61.64 and $57.35 are going to be the range - if bulls take out 61.64 then we see expansion to 63.80 (at a minimum) however I see it more likely as a dip to 57.35 and then 53.87 - that is the likely path I am seeing. Crude’s recovery to 61.64 is stalled (and for good reason) - I would see this as a tipping point before dropping back to 57.35 (the number I see coming this week)

Updated: 2025-10-31 23:46:51 Length: 541 chars

Crude oil fundamentals remain bearish, with only distillate stocks providing a glimmer of hope. Recent Russian sanctions briefly pushed prices above $60, but the outlook seems to point towards a dip, likely testing the $57.35 level. Key price points to watch are $61.64 for bullish expansion and $57.35 as a potential support. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in Venezuela, are causing some upward price movements, but overall market sentiment leans towards caution as crude futures face downward pressure for the third consecutive month.

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.0 $0.08

WTI: $60.57 $0.09

Spread: $4.43 (Brent premium of $4.43)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $60.88

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.33

MA(20): $59.92

Current Price is 60.88, 9 day MA 60.33, 20 day MA 59.92

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3994

Signal: -0.7478

Days since crossover: 7

MACD crossed the line 7 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 50.83

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 50.83 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 254,099

Avg (20d): 287,290

Ratio: 0.88

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 72.6

%D: 68.8

Stochastic %K: 72.6, %D: 68.8. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 18.94

+DI: 20.57

-DI: 22.55

ADX: 18.94 (+DI: 20.57, -DI: 22.55). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -27.4

Williams %R: -27.4 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 63.23

Middle: 59.92

Lower: 56.61

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 63.23, Middle: 59.92, Lower: 56.61

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13644.0	13629.0	13500.0	12866.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5051.0	5918.0	6431.0	6201.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4361.0	4203.0	4112.0	4361.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	15219.0	15730.0	16084.0	15715.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	690.0	1715.0	2319.0	1840.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	415966.0	422824.0	426024.0	428077.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1677842.0	1693212.0	1642502.0	1623975.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	210738.0	216679.0	213575.0	213674.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	112189.0	115551.0	113839.0	110313.67

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $65.0, change $+0.08. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $60.57, change $+0.09. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.43 (Brent premium of $4.43). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.0

0.08

(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$60.57

0.09

(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.43

Brent premium of $4.43

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

As of September 2025, OPEC's market dynamics reflect a stable crude oil price environment, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $70.39/b. Global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while production from non-DoC countries is expected to increase, indicating a tightening balance between supply and demand.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Value (mb/d)
World Production	104.4941
World Demand	105.1352
Non-DoC Production	51.4390
DoC Production	43.0500

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current supply-demand balance indicates a slight deficit in the market, with total world demand at 105.135 mb/d against total production of 104.494 mb/d. This deficit of approximately 0.641 mb/d could lead to upward pressure on prices if the trend continues, especially as demand is projected to grow steadily in the coming years.

Production Landscape:

Production is dominated by the Americas, contributing 25.186 mb/d, followed by the Middle East at 9.013 mb/d. Notably, the US remains the largest producer within the non-DoC framework, with a production level of 22.068 mb/d. The increase in production from Brazil and Canada also highlights the shifting dynamics in the global oil landscape.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is primarily driven by the non-OECD countries, particularly China and India, which account for significant portions of the total demand. With China demanding 16.853 mb/d and India at 5.704 mb/d, these regions are expected to continue leading growth, despite potential challenges from economic fluctuations and energy transition policies.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production stands at 51.439 mb/d, significantly outpacing DoC production at 43.050 mb/d. This trend suggests that non-DoC countries are increasingly contributing to global supply, which may impact OPEC's pricing power and market strategies moving forward.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production adjustments, balancing the need to support prices while accommodating rising non-DoC production. The organization may consider strategic cuts or adjustments to maintain market stability as global demand grows.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As demand is expected to increase by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, OPEC may face challenges in maintaining price stability amid rising competition from non-DoC producers. Monitoring global economic indicators and geopolitical developments will be crucial for OPEC's strategic planning in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor the production levels of non-DoC countries, particularly the US, Brazil, and Canada, as they may influence OPEC's pricing strategies.
Consider potential production adjustments to counterbalance the slight supply-demand deficit and support crude oil prices.
Stay informed on economic growth forecasts in key markets such as China and India, which are critical for future demand growth.
Evaluate the impact of geopolitical developments on oil supply chains and market stability.
Enhance communication with member countries to ensure cohesive strategies in response to evolving market conditions.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.4

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 70

Last Updated: 2025-10-31 23:49:37

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.72

Daily: 0.19 (0.19%)

Weekly: 0.94 (0.95%)

US_10Y

4.1

Daily: 0.01 (0.2%)

Weekly: 0.1 (2.6%)

SP500

6840.2

Daily: 17.86 (0.26%)

Weekly: -34.96 (-0.51%)

VIX

17.44

Daily: 0.53 (3.13%)

Weekly: 1.65 (10.45%)

GOLD

4013.4

Daily: 12.1 (0.3%)

Weekly: 11.5 (0.29%)

COPPER

5.11

Daily: 0.04 (0.71%)

Weekly: -0.03 (-0.52%)

Current Price: $60.88

Closest Support: $60.2 1.12% below current price

Closest Resistance: $61.38 0.82% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73

0.382 $60.2 Support

0.5 $61.38 Resistance

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $60.57

Forecast Generated: 2025-10-31 23:49:41

Next Trading Day: UP 0.08%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-10-31	$60.62	$58.39	$62.85
2025-11-01	$60.72	$58.49	$62.95
2025-11-02	$60.76	$58.54	$62.99
2025-11-03	$60.74	$58.51	$62.97
2025-11-04	$60.73	$58.5	$62.96

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-10-31), reaching $60.62.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-10-31 and 2025-11-04.
The average confidence interval width is ~7.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market dynamics suggest bearish sentiment, with a sentiment score of -0.400 indicating a potential downward trend. The Brent-WTI spread of $4.43 reflects ongoing differences in supply and demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets, which may provide short-term trading opportunities.

The support levels appear to be forming near the $60 mark for WTI, while resistance might be observed around the $67 level for Brent. Traders should monitor the flattening forward curves and the continued net short positions of hedge funds as they may indicate potential volatility in the short term.

Additionally, the mixed movement in tanker freight rates could impact logistics costs, presenting both risks and opportunities for speculative trading strategies.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should take note of the bearish market sentiment reflected in the CFTC positioning data, where managed money traders have a net short position. This could indicate a cautious approach to production planning in the upcoming months.

The increase in crude oil production by DoC countries to 43.05 mb/d signals a need for effective hedging strategies to protect against price fluctuations. Furthermore, the balance of supply and demand remains tight, with OECD commercial crude stocks down 10.4 mb, suggesting that inventory levels could tighten further, impacting pricing.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as the market sentiment is currently bearish. The Brent crude at $67.58 and WTI at $63.53 indicate that procurement strategies should be evaluated, particularly in light of the tightening inventory levels and geopolitical risks that may affect supply reliability.

With refinery margins increasing due to seasonal trends, there may be opportunities to optimize operations and reduce costs. However, the fluctuations in product imports and exports could affect availability, necessitating a proactive approach to hedging against price volatility.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by a combination of factors including increased production from non-DoC countries and a net short positioning in managed money. The fundamentals reflect a stable demand growth forecast of 1.3 mb/d, yet supply dynamics are increasingly influenced by geopolitical risks and inventory levels that are significantly lower than historical averages.

Analysts should closely monitor the impacts of global economic growth forecasts, particularly in non-OECD countries, as these may shift demand patterns. The mixed sentiment in news articles indicates a complex interplay of factors that could lead to outlook shifts, warranting ongoing analysis of both technical and fundamental indicators.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.