Crude Oil Radar

Published: 11/02/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Fundamentals appear to be pretty bearish - with the lone exception being distillate stocks globally which are bullish. Russian sanctions added a little momentum to push crude above $60 - but I don’t see that as really turning anything bullish. $61.64 and $57.35 are going to be the range - if bulls take out 61.64 then we see expansion to 63.80 (at a minimum) however I see it more likely as a dip to 57.35 and then 53.87 - that is the likely path I am seeing. Crude’s recovery to 61.64 is stalled (and for good reason) - I would see this as a tipping point before dropping back to 57.35 (the number I see coming this week)

Updated: 2025-11-02 23:46:53 Length: 513 chars

Crude oil fundamentals are leaning bearish, with the exception of bullish distillate stocks. Recent Russian sanctions nudged prices above $60, but the outlook remains cautious. Key price levels to watch are $61.64 (bearish break) and $57.35 (potential dip target). OPEC+ has paused output hikes amid surplus concerns, causing temporary price lifts. Despite geopolitical risks, the market could see a range between $60-$65 into 2026. Traders should watch for a dip to $57.35 before any potential recovery attempts.

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.07 $0.07

WTI: $60.98 $0.41

Spread: $4.09 (Brent premium of $4.09)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $61.16

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.72

MA(20): $59.9

Current Price is 61.16, 9 day MA 60.72, 20 day MA 59.9

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.2935

Signal: -0.6557

Days since crossover: 8

MACD crossed the line 8 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 52.23

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 52.23 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 15,880

Avg (20d): 276,540

Ratio: 0.06

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 77.08

%D: 72.97

Stochastic %K: 77.08, %D: 72.97. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.84

+DI: 20.55

-DI: 22.04

ADX: 17.84 (+DI: 20.55, -DI: 22.04). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -22.92

Williams %R: -22.92 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 63.17

Middle: 59.9

Lower: 56.63

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 63.17, Middle: 59.9, Lower: 56.63

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13644.0	13629.0	13500.0	12866.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5051.0	5918.0	6431.0	6201.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4361.0	4203.0	4112.0	4361.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	15219.0	15730.0	16084.0	15715.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	690.0	1715.0	2319.0	1840.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	415966.0	422824.0	426024.0	428077.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1677842.0	1693212.0	1642502.0	1623975.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	210738.0	216679.0	213575.0	213674.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	112189.0	115551.0	113839.0	110313.67

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $65.07, change $+0.07. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $60.98, change $+0.41. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.09 (Brent premium of $4.09). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.07

0.07

(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$60.98

0.41

(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.09

Brent premium of $4.09

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The OPEC market is currently experiencing a stable environment with a slight increase in crude oil prices, alongside a steady growth forecast for global oil demand and supply. The balance between production and demand remains tight, with OPEC's production levels reflecting a modest increase, positioning the organization strategically for future market developments.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Production (mb/d)	Demand (mb/d)
World Production	105.135	105.135
Non-DoC Production	51.439
DoC Production	43.05

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current supply-demand balance indicates a slight surplus in the market, with total world production at approximately 105.135 mb/d matching total world demand. However, the production from OPEC's DoC members is at 43.05 mb/d, which is below the demand for DoC crude of 42.5 mb/d, suggesting a tight market scenario that may lead to upward pressure on prices if demand continues to grow.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the Americas at 25.19 mb/d, Europe at 13.51 mb/d, and the Middle East at 9.01 mb/d. Notably, the US remains the largest producer within the Non-DoC framework, with production levels reaching 22.07 mb/d. This highlights the significant role of North American production in shaping the global oil landscape.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, driving this growth. China's demand stands at 16.85 mb/d, while India's demand is at 5.70 mb/d. This trend indicates a shift towards increased consumption in emerging economies, which may present both opportunities and challenges for OPEC in maintaining market share.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

The Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.439 mb/d, significantly contributing to the overall supply. In contrast, DoC production, which includes OPEC members, is at 43.05 mb/d. This analysis underscores the importance of Non-DoC producers in the global oil supply chain, especially as they continue to expand production capabilities.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production adjustments, balancing the need to support prices while responding to rising demand. The organization is likely to continue monitoring market conditions closely, with potential policy directions aimed at stabilizing prices amidst fluctuating global demand.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As we look ahead, the market is expected to face upward pressure on prices due to the tight supply-demand balance and increasing demand from emerging markets. OPEC's ability to manage production levels effectively will be crucial in navigating potential volatility in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor the production levels of Non-DoC countries, as they significantly influence global supply dynamics.
Focus on emerging markets like China and India for potential growth in demand.
Consider strategic production adjustments to maintain price stability in response to market fluctuations.
Stay informed on geopolitical developments that may impact oil supply and demand.
Evaluate refining capacities and product markets to optimize profitability amidst changing consumption patterns.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.4

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 39

Last Updated: 2025-11-02 23:49:54

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.4

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.75

Daily: -0.06 (-0.06%)

Weekly: 1.06 (1.07%)

US_10Y

4.1

Daily: 0.01 (0.2%)

Weekly: 0.1 (2.6%)

SP500

6840.2

Daily: 17.86 (0.26%)

Weekly: -34.96 (-0.51%)

VIX

17.44

Daily: 0.53 (3.13%)

Weekly: 1.65 (10.45%)

GOLD

4016.2

Daily: 34.0 (0.85%)

Weekly: 50.0 (1.26%)

COPPER

5.09

Daily: 0.02 (0.46%)

Weekly: -0.05 (-1.0%)

Current Price: $61.16

Closest Support: $60.2 1.57% below current price

Closest Resistance: $61.38 0.36% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73

0.382 $60.2 Support

0.5 $61.38 Resistance

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $60.98

Forecast Generated: 2025-11-02 23:49:57

Next Trading Day: UP 0.17%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-01	$61.08	$58.85	$63.32
2025-11-02	$61.13	$58.9	$63.37
2025-11-03	$61.11	$58.87	$63.34
2025-11-04	$61.07	$58.83	$63.3
2025-11-05	$61.03	$58.8	$63.27

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.17% for the next trading day (2025-11-01), reaching $61.08.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-01 and 2025-11-05.
The average confidence interval width is ~7.3% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market sentiment is bearish, with a score of -0.400, indicating potential challenges for upward price movements. The $65.07 for Brent and $60.98 for WTI suggest a support level near the $60 mark for WTI, while resistance may be tested around the recent highs of $67.58 for Brent.

The Brent-WTI spread remains at $4.09, reflecting ongoing differences in supply and demand dynamics. Traders should monitor geopolitical risks, particularly in Venezuela, which could further impact prices and volatility. The bearish positioning from hedge funds, with a net short stance, may indicate potential for price corrections, but traders should remain vigilant for short-term volatility due to fluctuating inventory levels and OPEC's output decisions.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With OPEC's crude production reported at 43.05 mb/d, producers should consider adjusting production plans in light of the stable demand forecast of 1.3 mb/d growth for 2025. The bearish sentiment in the market may prompt a reassessment of hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines.

The current inventory levels indicate a decline in crude stocks, with OECD crude oil commercial stocks down to 1,316 mb. This tightening may support prices, but producers should remain cautious, given the global economic growth forecast of 3.0% for 2025, which could influence demand fluctuations.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The recent increase in refinery margins suggests potential for improved profitability for refiners, driven by lower product output during the maintenance season. However, consumers should be aware of input cost fluctuations as WTI prices hover around $60.98, with geopolitical risks potentially impacting supply reliability.

The current inventory levels indicate a need for strategic procurement, especially with US crude imports returning to seasonal averages at 6.1 mb/d. Consumers should consider hedging strategies against potential price spikes resulting from geopolitical tensions or supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and stable demand forecasts. The combination of a net short positioning by managed money and a flattening forward curve suggests cautious outlooks for price movements.

Key drivers include the geopolitical instability affecting supply chains, particularly in Venezuela, and the potential for OPEC output decisions to influence market dynamics. Analysts should keep a close watch on inventory levels and economic indicators, which may signal shifts in market sentiment and price direction.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor for specific investment recommendations.