Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-04 23:51

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/04/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Fundamentals appear to be pretty bearish - with the lone exception being distillate stocks globally which are bullish. Russian sanctions added a little momentum to push crude above $60 - but I don’t see that as really turning anything bullish. $61.64 and $57.35 are going to be the range - if bulls take out 61.64 then we see expansion to 63.80 (at a minimum) however I see it more likely as a dip to 57.35 and then 53.87 - that is the likely path I am seeing. Crude’s recovery to 61.64 is stalled (and for good reason) - I would see this as a tipping point before dropping back to 57.35 (the number I see coming this week). Crude is simply stuck - even an optimistic bullish headline like OPEC+ halting production hikes at the beginning of Q1 2026 - WTI could not even get above the key 61.64. It will take a massive bullish headline to move the market (Russian sanctions, OPEC+ halting production hikes, Israel-Hamas, Russia-Ukraine…the oil market has shrugged off ALL OF THESE)... 57.35 is the next stop.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-04 23:46:55 Length: 545 chars
Crude Oil is facing bearish fundamentals, despite a brief rally above $60 due to Russian sanctions. Key resistance sits at $61.64, while the market is likely to dip towards $57.35, with traders eyeing potential support levels. Recent reports highlight a significant increase in US crude inventories, contributing to downward pressure. A strong dollar and broader market selloff are compounding these challenges. Watch for any major headlines that could shift sentiment, as the market remains precariously balanced between support and resistance.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.05 $0.02
WTI: $61.05 $0.07
Spread: $4.0 (Brent premium of $4.00)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.55
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.93

MA(20): $59.83

Current Price is 60.55, 9 day MA 60.93, 20 day MA 59.83

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.2688

Signal: -0.5797

Days since crossover: 9

MACD crossed the line 9 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.91

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.91 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,971

Avg (20d): 265,473

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 67.31

%D: 72.28

Stochastic %K: 67.31, %D: 72.28. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.16

+DI: 19.24

-DI: 22.81

ADX: 17.16 (+DI: 19.24, -DI: 22.81). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -32.69

Williams %R: -32.69 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 63.0

Middle: 59.83

Lower: 56.67

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 63.0, Middle: 59.83, Lower: 56.67

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13644.0 13629.0 13500.0 12866.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5051.0 5918.0 6431.0 6201.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4361.0 4203.0 4112.0 4361.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15219.0 15730.0 16084.0 15715.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 690.0 1715.0 2319.0 1840.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 415966.0 422824.0 426024.0 428077.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1677842.0 1693212.0 1642502.0 1623975.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 210738.0 216679.0 213575.0 213674.33
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112189.0 115551.0 113839.0 110313.67

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (DEC 25) settled at $65.05, change $-0.02. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $61.05, change $+0.07. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.0 (Brent premium of $4.00). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.05
0.02
(DEC 25)

WTI Crude

$61.05
0.07
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.0
Brent premium of $4.00

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a stable global oil demand growth forecast of 1.3 mb/d for 2025, with non-DoC production expected to increase significantly. Despite a slight increase in the OPEC Reference Basket price, market dynamics indicate a cautious outlook due to bearish sentiments among traders and ongoing production adjustments.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.494 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439 59.307
DoC Production 43.05 42.5

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The analysis indicates a slight surplus in global oil supply, with total production at 104.494 mb/d against a demand of 105.135 mb/d. This surplus may exert downward pressure on prices if sustained, particularly as non-DoC production continues to rise, potentially outpacing demand growth.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global production include the Americas (25.186 mb/d), Europe (13.509 mb/d), and the Middle East (9.014 mb/d). Notably, the U.S. leads with 22.068 mb/d, reflecting robust growth in shale production, while OPEC's DoC members' production has increased to 43.05 mb/d.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD regions, particularly China (16.853 mb/d) and India (5.704 mb/d). The OECD region's demand growth remains modest, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 43.05 mb/d. This divergence highlights the increasing role of non-OPEC producers in the global oil supply landscape, which could challenge OPEC's market influence if trends continue.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious balancing act between maintaining production levels and responding to rising non-DoC output. The organization may consider strategic production cuts to stabilize prices and uphold its market share amidst increasing competition.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the market may experience volatility due to fluctuating demand forecasts and production adjustments. The anticipated growth in non-DoC production could lead to increased competition, prompting OPEC to reassess its production strategies to maintain price stability.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor non-DoC production trends closely as they may impact OPEC's pricing power.
  • Consider strategic production adjustments to counterbalance rising supply and maintain market stability.
  • Focus on enhancing cooperation among DoC members to ensure compliance and effective market management.
  • Evaluate demand growth in emerging markets to identify new opportunities for market expansion.
  • Prepare for potential market volatility as geopolitical and economic factors continue to influence oil prices.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH
Average Polarity: 0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 43
Last Updated: 2025-11-04 23:50:03

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (9 articles)

Geopolitical (1 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.13
Daily: 0.26 (0.26%)
Weekly: 0.91 (0.92%)

US_10Y

4.09
Daily: -0.02 (-0.41%)
Weekly: 0.03 (0.76%)

SP500

6771.55
Daily: -80.42 (-1.17%)
Weekly: -119.04 (-1.73%)

VIX

19.0
Daily: 1.83 (10.66%)
Weekly: 2.08 (12.29%)

GOLD

3978.1
Daily: -22.2 (-0.55%)
Weekly: -5.6 (-0.14%)

COPPER

4.96
Daily: -0.09 (-1.8%)
Weekly: -0.28 (-5.3%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.55
Closest Support: $60.2 0.58% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.38 1.37% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $58.73
0.382 $60.2 Support
0.5 $61.38 Resistance
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $60.56
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-04 23:50:06
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.04%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-05 $60.53 $58.41 $62.66
2025-11-06 $60.49 $58.36 $62.62
2025-11-07 $60.46 $58.33 $62.59
2025-11-08 $60.49 $58.37 $62.62
2025-11-09 $60.52 $58.4 $62.65

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2025-11-05), reaching $60.53.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-05 and 2025-11-09.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.0% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market dynamics indicate a bullish sentiment, with a sentiment score of +0.600. The $65.05 Brent and $61.05 WTI prices suggest a support level around these averages, while the $4.00 Brent-WTI spread indicates ongoing price divergence influenced by supply/demand factors.

Given the risk of volatility due to geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ production strategies, traders should monitor the flattening forward curves and the bearish positioning of hedge funds. The managed money net position has decreased, indicating a potential bearish shift in sentiment. Short-term opportunities may arise from fluctuations within the resistance levels established by recent price movements.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of a balanced demand for DoC crude at 42.5 mb/d for 2025, which reflects stable market conditions. With OPEC+ maintaining production levels, there may be opportunities to adjust production planning in line with hedging strategies that align with the current price environment.

The decline in OECD crude inventories, down to 1,316 mb, presents a risk of tightening supply, which could lead to upward price pressure. Monitoring inventory levels and adjusting production accordingly will be crucial in navigating the evolving market landscape.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should be prepared for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI and Brent prices currently at $61.05 and $65.05, respectively. The risk of supply reliability is heightened by geopolitical factors and the current state of inventories, which are below historical averages.

With refinery margins improving due to seasonal trends, it may be prudent for consumers to explore procurement strategies that capitalize on favorable pricing while also considering hedging options to mitigate potential price spikes.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture characterized by a bullish sentiment driven by stable global economic growth, with forecasts remaining unchanged at around 3.0% for the next two years. However, the market is also facing risks from geopolitical tensions and inventory dynamics.

The positioning of managed money traders suggests a bearish shift, which could indicate potential market reversals. Analysts should closely monitor OPEC+ production policies and the evolving demand dynamics in both OECD and non-OECD regions to anticipate shifts in market sentiment and pricing.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved