Crude Oil Radar

Published: 11/05/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Fundamentals appear to be pretty bearish - with the lone exception being distillate stocks globally which are bullish. Russian sanctions added a little momentum to push crude above $60 - but I don’t see that as really turning anything bullish. $61.64 and $57.35 are going to be the range - if bulls take out 61.64 then we see expansion to 63.80 (at a minimum) however I see it more likely as a dip to 57.35 and then 53.87 - that is the likely path I am seeing. Crude’s recovery to 61.64 is stalled (and for good reason) - I would see this as a tipping point before dropping back to 57.35 (the number I see coming this week). Crude is simply stuck - even an optimistic bullish headline like OPEC+ halting production hikes at the beginning of Q1 2026 - WTI could not even get above the key 61.64. It will take a massive bullish headline to move the market (Russian sanctions, OPEC+ halting production hikes, Israel-Hamas, Russia-Ukraine…the oil market has shrugged off ALL OF THESE)... 57.35 is the next stop.

Updated: 2025-11-05 23:47:30 Length: 521 chars

Crude oil fundamentals look bearish, with global distillate stocks as the lone bullish exception. Recent Russian sanctions temporarily pushed prices above $60, but the market remains stuck, oscillating between $57.35 and $61.64. Despite bullish headlines, like OPEC+ production cuts, the market shrugged them off. With increasing U.S. inventories and weak demand, a further dip to $57.35 seems likely, unless a major catalyst emerges. Watch for key resistance at $61.64 and support at $57.35 for upcoming price movements.

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.44 $0.45

WTI: $60.56 $0.49

Spread: $3.88 (Brent premium of $3.88)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $59.82

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.71

MA(20): $59.7

Current Price is 59.82, 9 day MA 60.71, 20 day MA 59.7

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.2971

Signal: -0.5231

Days since crossover: 10

MACD crossed the line 10 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.12

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.12 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,134

Avg (20d): 262,730

Ratio: 0.03

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 55.61

%D: 66.13

Stochastic %K: 55.61, %D: 66.13. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.91

+DI: 18.28

-DI: 23.79

ADX: 16.91 (+DI: 18.28, -DI: 23.79). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -44.39

Williams %R: -44.39 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 62.61

Middle: 59.7

Lower: 56.78

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.61, Middle: 59.7, Lower: 56.78

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13651.0	13644.0	13500.0	12933.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5924.0	5051.0	5975.0	6362.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4367.0	4361.0	4261.0	3632.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	15256.0	15219.0	16053.0	15886.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	1557.0	690.0	1714.0	2730.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	421168.0	415966.0	425509.0	434725.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1678973.0	1677842.0	1634198.0	1622988.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	206009.0	210738.0	210868.0	211407.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	111546.0	112189.0	112862.0	110024.33

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $64.44, change $-0.45. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $60.56, change $-0.49. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.88 (Brent premium of $3.88). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.44

0.45

(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$60.56

0.49

(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.88

Brent premium of $3.88

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a stable global oil demand growth forecast of approximately 1.3 mb/d for 2025, with a corresponding increase in production from DoC countries. However, the overall supply-demand balance indicates a slight surplus, primarily driven by non-DoC production growth, particularly from the US and Brazil.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Production (mb/d)	Demand (mb/d)
World Production	105.135	105.135
Non-DoC Production	51.439	59.307
DoC Production	43.05	42.5

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The supply-demand analysis indicates that total world production is aligned with total world demand at approximately 105.135 mb/d. However, the production from non-DoC countries exceeds demand, suggesting a potential surplus in the market. This surplus could lead to downward pressure on prices if not managed effectively by OPEC and its partners.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the US (22.067 mb/d), Brazil (4.389 mb/d), and Canada (6.063 mb/d). The DoC countries are expected to produce approximately 43.05 mb/d, with a notable month-on-month increase of 630 tb/d in September. This trend indicates a recovery and potential growth trajectory for OPEC members.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from non-OECD regions, particularly China (16.853 mb/d) and India (5.704 mb/d). The OECD regions are expected to see modest growth, primarily driven by stable demand in the Americas and Europe. However, challenges remain in maintaining this growth amidst economic uncertainties.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted to reach 51.439 mb/d, significantly contributing to the global supply. In contrast, DoC production is projected at 43.05 mb/d. The disparity between these figures highlights the increasing influence of non-DoC producers, particularly the US, which may challenge OPEC's market share and pricing power.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position appears stable, with a strategic focus on managing production levels to balance the slight surplus. The organization may consider adjusting output levels to maintain price stability and protect its market share against rising non-DoC production. Future policy directions may involve closer collaboration with non-OPEC producers to ensure a balanced market.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the oil market is likely to experience continued demand growth, particularly from emerging economies. However, the increase in non-DoC production poses a challenge for OPEC. Monitoring economic indicators and adjusting production strategies will be crucial for maintaining market stability in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor non-DoC production closely, particularly from the US and Brazil, to assess its impact on global prices.
Consider strategic production adjustments to mitigate the effects of potential surpluses in the market.
Enhance collaboration with non-OPEC producers to ensure a balanced supply-demand equation.
Focus on emerging markets for demand growth opportunities while addressing potential economic challenges.
Maintain flexibility in production strategies to adapt to changing market dynamics and economic conditions.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 49

Last Updated: 2025-11-05 23:50:34

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds

Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.07

Daily: -0.15 (-0.15%)

Weekly: 0.54 (0.54%)

US_10Y

4.16

Daily: 0.07 (1.66%)

Weekly: 0.06 (1.56%)

SP500

6796.29

Daily: 24.74 (0.37%)

Weekly: -26.05 (-0.38%)

VIX

18.01

Daily: -0.99 (-5.21%)

Weekly: 1.1 (6.51%)

GOLD

3996.1

Daily: 48.4 (1.23%)

Weekly: -5.2 (-0.13%)

COPPER

5.01

Daily: 0.09 (1.79%)

Weekly: -0.06 (-1.26%)

Current Price: $59.82

Closest Support: $58.73 1.82% below current price

Closest Resistance: $60.2 0.64% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73 Support

0.382 $60.2 Resistance

0.5 $61.38

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $59.6

Forecast Generated: 2025-11-05 23:50:37

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.08%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-06	$59.55	$57.41	$61.7
2025-11-07	$59.51	$57.36	$61.66
2025-11-08	$59.55	$57.4	$61.69
2025-11-09	$59.65	$57.5	$61.79
2025-11-10	$59.71	$57.56	$61.86

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-11-06), reaching $59.55.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-06 and 2025-11-10.
The average confidence interval width is ~7.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current Crude Oil market presents a bearish sentiment, with overall market sentiment at a score of -0.700. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $4.05, indicating a potential divergence in supply-demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets.

With the flattening forward curves for ICE Brent and NYMEX WTI, traders should be cautious of potential price volatility. The recent CFTC positioning shows managed money is net short, suggesting a possible price decline in the short term.

Key Fibonacci levels to watch for potential support include the recent lows around $63.53 for WTI, while resistance may be identified around $67.58 for Brent. Traders should remain vigilant for short-term opportunities or risks arising from geopolitical tensions or unexpected inventory changes.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market dynamics indicate a need for strategic production planning. With global oil demand growth forecast remaining stable at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate price risks, especially given the bearish sentiment in the market.

The decline in OECD crude oil commercial stocks to 1,316 mb suggests a tightening market, which may provide an opportunity for producers to optimize their output levels. However, they should also monitor the impact of inventory levels on pricing, particularly as refinery margins are currently increasing due to seasonal trends.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain volatile. The current average Brent price of $67.58 and WTI at $63.53 indicate that procurement strategies may need to adapt to manage costs effectively.

Additionally, supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical factors and the tightening inventory levels. With U.S. crude imports returning to seasonal levels and exports peaking, consumers should consider proactive measures for sourcing and hedging against potential supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, primarily driven by concerns over oversupply and weak demand signals. The global oil demand growth forecast remains stable, yet the market sentiment indicates potential shifts as managed money positions reflect a net short stance.

Analysts should focus on the divergence in supply-demand dynamics between Brent and WTI, as well as the implications of OPEC's production decisions. The mixed sentiment from recent news and the CFTC positioning suggest that while there may be short-term bearish trends, long-term fundamentals remain supportive of gradual demand growth.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.