Crude Oil Radar

Published: 11/07/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude oil has everything bearish about it - but the bulls are really trying to keep this close to 60. 57.35 is the line in the sand - if that goes - we could in fact drop all the way down to the 40s. Fundamentally I don’t see that happening - but staying in the 50s seems very likely for the near term. OPEC+ adding some more barrels in Nov/Dec along with China who is still importing over a million bopd ONLY FOR their strategic petroleum reserve. I think we’ll mostly be sideways but watch what happens when we get to 57.35 - that will be the last line of hope for bulls….and the attack point for bears. We only turn bullish if we get above 61.64.

Updated: 2025-11-07 23:46:55 Length: 513 chars

Crude oil finds itself in a precarious balance as bearish fundamentals clash with persistent bullish efforts, keeping prices near $60. The critical support level is at $57.35; a breach could plunge prices into the 40s, though a sideways trend in the 50s is more likely. OPEC+ plans to increase output in late 2025, while China's strategic imports bolster demand. The market remains choppy amid dollar weakness and concerns over excess supply, so traders should watch for volatility during this transitional phase.

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.38 $0.14

WTI: $59.43 $0.17

Spread: $3.95 (Brent premium of $3.95)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $59.84

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.3

MA(20): $59.63

Current Price is 59.84, 9 day MA 60.3, 20 day MA 59.63

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3609

Signal: -0.467

Days since crossover: 12

MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.89

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.89 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 230,336

Avg (20d): 272,441

Ratio: 0.85

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 50.89

%D: 50.78

Stochastic %K: 50.89, %D: 50.78. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.35

+DI: 15.59

-DI: 23.37

ADX: 17.35 (+DI: 15.59, -DI: 23.37). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -49.11

Williams %R: -49.11 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 62.4

Middle: 59.63

Lower: 56.85

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.4, Middle: 59.63, Lower: 56.85

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13651.0	13644.0	13500.0	12933.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5924.0	5051.0	5975.0	6362.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4367.0	4361.0	4261.0	3632.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	15256.0	15219.0	16053.0	15886.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	1557.0	690.0	1714.0	2730.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	421168.0	415966.0	425509.0	434725.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1678973.0	1677842.0	1634198.0	1622988.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	206009.0	210738.0	210868.0	211407.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	111546.0	112189.0	112862.0	110024.33

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.38, change $-0.14. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $59.43, change $-0.17. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.95 (Brent premium of $3.95). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.38

0.14

(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$59.43

0.17

(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.95

Brent premium of $3.95

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a stable production environment with a slight increase in crude oil prices. The OPEC Reference Basket value rose to $70.39/b, while global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, particularly in non-OECD regions, indicating a balanced supply-demand scenario moving forward.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Production (mb/d)	Demand (mb/d)
World Production	105.135	105.135
Non-DoC Production	51.439	-
DoC Production	43.05	-

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The global oil supply is currently balanced with total production at approximately 105.135 mb/d, matching the demand figures. The demand for DoC crude remains stable at 42.5 mb/d for 2025, indicating a slight surplus in the market, which may lead to price stabilization in the near term.

Production Landscape:

Production by region shows that the Americas lead with 25.186 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.509 mb/d and the Middle East at 9.014 mb/d. Notably, DoC production increased by 630 tb/d in September, reflecting OPEC's commitment to maintaining output levels amidst fluctuating market conditions.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, driving most of this growth. The demand in the OECD is relatively stagnant, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.439 mb/d, significantly contributing to global supply. In contrast, DoC production stands at 43.05 mb/d, highlighting the importance of OPEC's coordinated efforts in managing supply to meet global demand effectively.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current strategic position appears robust, with a balanced supply-demand scenario and a commitment to maintaining production levels. The organization is likely to continue its cautious approach to output adjustments in response to market dynamics and geopolitical factors.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

With steady demand growth expected in non-OECD countries and stable production levels, OPEC may anticipate a favorable market environment in the coming months. However, potential geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact these forecasts.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor production levels closely to respond to any shifts in demand dynamics.
Focus on enhancing cooperation among DoC and Non-DoC producers to stabilize prices.
Evaluate the impact of emerging market demand on global supply strategies.
Stay vigilant regarding geopolitical developments that could affect oil markets.
Consider strategic investments in refining capacity to meet changing product demands.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.7

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 61

Last Updated: 2025-11-07 23:49:48

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.56

Daily: -0.17 (-0.17%)

Weekly: -0.31 (-0.31%)

US_10Y

4.09

Daily: 0.0 (0.0%)

Weekly: -0.01 (-0.32%)

SP500

6728.8

Daily: 8.48 (0.13%)

Weekly: -123.17 (-1.8%)

VIX

19.08

Daily: -0.42 (-2.15%)

Weekly: 1.91 (11.12%)

GOLD

4007.8

Daily: 27.9 (0.7%)

Weekly: 7.5 (0.19%)

COPPER

4.96

Daily: 0.01 (0.25%)

Weekly: -0.09 (-1.76%)

Current Price: $59.84

Closest Support: $58.73 1.85% below current price

Closest Resistance: $60.2 0.6% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73 Support

0.382 $60.2 Resistance

0.5 $61.38

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $59.43

Forecast Generated: 2025-11-07 23:49:51

Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.08%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-07	$59.38	$57.26	$61.5
2025-11-08	$59.41	$57.29	$61.53
2025-11-09	$59.51	$57.4	$61.63
2025-11-10	$59.59	$57.47	$61.71
2025-11-11	$59.61	$57.49	$61.72

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.08% for the next trading day (2025-11-07), reaching $59.38.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-07 and 2025-11-11.
The average confidence interval width is ~7.1% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current market dynamics suggest a bearish sentiment overall, with a sentiment score of -0.700. The Brent-WTI spread has widened to $4.05, indicating potential opportunities for arbitrage, but also reflecting diverging supply and demand dynamics between global and U.S. markets.

Traders should watch for potential support levels around $63.00 for WTI and $67.00 for Brent. The recent positioning data shows managed money net positions are weakening, with a significant reduction of -10,316 contracts in the last week. This indicates a potential for increased volatility as positions adjust.

Short-term risks include the ongoing bearish sentiment in the news, particularly around supply concerns and inventory increases, which could push prices lower. Traders should also consider the implications of the flattening forward curves which may indicate reduced future price expectations.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should take note of the supply-demand balance which remains relatively stable, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.3 mb/d for 2025. However, the increase in commercial inventories—down 10.4 mb for crude—suggests a tightening market that could affect pricing strategies.

The hedging strategies should be adjusted to reflect the current bearish sentiment. The managed money positions indicate a net short stance, which may impact pricing power. Producers might consider locking in prices at current levels to mitigate risks associated with potential price declines.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as the market sentiment remains bearish. The recent data indicates a rise in crude imports to 6.1 mb/d, suggesting stable supply but with risks tied to geopolitical tensions and inventory levels.

The refinery margins have increased, which may translate to higher costs for refined products. Therefore, it would be prudent for consumers to evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging against rising costs, especially for products like diesel and jet fuel which are experiencing tighter market conditions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment driven by supply concerns and increasing commercial inventories. The overall economic growth forecast remains stable, but the supply-demand balance is tightening, particularly with the OECD showing lower crude stocks compared to historical averages.

Analysts should focus on the implications of the CFTC positioning, where managed money is showing a bearish trend, alongside a flattening forward curve. This indicates potential shifts in market outlook that could impact pricing strategies. The mixed sentiment in news articles further complicates the outlook, highlighting the need for close monitoring of supply and demand indicators in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.