Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-08 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/08/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude oil has everything bearish about it - but the bulls are really trying to keep this close to 60. 57.35 is the line in the sand - if that goes - we could in fact drop all the way down to the 40s. Fundamentally I don’t see that happening - but staying in the 50s seems very likely for the near term. OPEC+ adding some more barrels in Nov/Dec along with China who is still importing over a million bopd ONLY FOR their strategic petroleum reserve. I think we’ll mostly be sideways but watch what happens when we get to 57.35 - that will be the last line of hope for bulls….and the attack point for bears. We only turn bullish if we get above 61.64 which is beyond the big psychological barrier of 60. 57.35 is a BIG BIG deal - probably why bulls are trying to keep us above there.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-08 23:46:56 Length: 526 chars
Crude oil is currently navigating a bearish landscape while bulls strive to maintain prices above the crucial $57.35 threshold. A breach here could signal a drop to the 40s, though staying in the $50s seems probable for now. OPEC+ plans to increase output amid China’s robust strategic petroleum reserve imports adds pressure. Despite recent dollar weakness boosting crude, oversupply and market jitters from the tech sector are keeping traders on edge. Watch for key resistance at $61.64, which could shift sentiment bullish.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.63 $0.25
WTI: $59.75 $0.32
Spread: $3.88 (Brent premium of $3.88)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $59.75
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.29

MA(20): $59.62

Current Price is 59.75, 9 day MA 60.29, 20 day MA 59.62

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3681

Signal: -0.4684

Days since crossover: 12

MACD crossed the line 12 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 45.33

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 45.33 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 277,768

Avg (20d): 274,812

Ratio: 1.01

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 49.29

%D: 50.24

Stochastic %K: 49.29, %D: 50.24. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.35

+DI: 15.59

-DI: 23.37

ADX: 17.35 (+DI: 15.59, -DI: 23.37). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -50.71

Williams %R: -50.71 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 62.4

Middle: 59.62

Lower: 56.85

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.4, Middle: 59.62, Lower: 56.85

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13651.0 13644.0 13500.0 12933.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5924.0 5051.0 5975.0 6362.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4367.0 4361.0 4261.0 3632.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15256.0 15219.0 16053.0 15886.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1557.0 690.0 1714.0 2730.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 421168.0 415966.0 425509.0 434725.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1678973.0 1677842.0 1634198.0 1622988.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 206009.0 210738.0 210868.0 211407.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 111546.0 112189.0 112862.0 110024.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.63, change $+0.25. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $59.75, change $+0.32. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.88 (Brent premium of $3.88). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.63
0.25
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$59.75
0.32
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.88
Brent premium of $3.88

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a modest increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $70.39/b in September. Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, while production from both OPEC and non-OPEC sources shows signs of adjustment to meet this demand.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.494 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439 59.307
DoC Production 43.05 42.5

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The analysis indicates a slight deficit in the supply-demand balance, with total world production at 104.494 mb/d against a demand of 105.135 mb/d, leading to a supply shortfall of approximately 0.641 mb/d. This situation may exert upward pressure on prices if the trend continues.

Production Landscape:

Production is predominantly driven by the Americas, contributing 25.186 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.509 mb/d and the Middle East at 9.014 mb/d. Notably, the US leads with 22.068 mb/d of non-DoC production, indicating its significant role in the global supply chain.

Demand Patterns:

Demand is strongest in the Americas and China, each at approximately 25.186 mb/d and 16.853 mb/d, respectively. The non-OECD regions, particularly India and other Asian countries, are expected to see robust growth, contributing to the overall increase in global demand.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production stands at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 43.05 mb/d. This highlights the growing influence of non-OPEC producers in the global oil market, particularly as they respond to rising demand.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production levels amid rising demand forecasts. The organization may consider adjusting output strategies to stabilize prices while accommodating the increasing demand from both OECD and non-OECD regions.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the market is likely to experience continued upward pressure on prices due to the ongoing supply-demand imbalance. If demand growth outpaces production adjustments, OPEC may need to consider further production cuts or strategic collaborations with non-OPEC producers to maintain market stability.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the evolving supply-demand balance closely, as any further deficits could lead to price spikes.
  • Consider strategic partnerships with non-OPEC producers to enhance market stability.
  • Focus on enhancing production efficiency to meet growing demand without significant price increases.
  • Stay informed on geopolitical developments that may impact oil supply and demand dynamics.
  • Evaluate the potential for further adjustments in production levels based on market conditions.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 44
Last Updated: 2025-11-08 23:49:44

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.6
Daily: -0.13 (-0.13%)
Weekly: -0.27 (-0.27%)

US_10Y

4.09
Daily: 0.0 (0.0%)
Weekly: -0.01 (-0.32%)

SP500

6728.8
Daily: 8.48 (0.13%)
Weekly: -123.17 (-1.8%)

VIX

19.08
Daily: -0.42 (-2.15%)
Weekly: 1.91 (11.12%)

GOLD

3999.4
Daily: 19.5 (0.49%)
Weekly: -0.9 (-0.02%)

COPPER

4.94
Daily: -0.01 (-0.15%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.16%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $59.75
Closest Support: $58.73 1.71% below current price
Closest Resistance: $60.2 0.75% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $58.73 Support
0.382 $60.2 Resistance
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $59.75
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-08 23:49:46
Next Trading Day: UP 0.04%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-08 $59.77 $57.79 $61.75
2025-11-09 $59.88 $57.9 $61.85
2025-11-10 $59.95 $57.97 $61.93
2025-11-11 $59.94 $57.96 $61.92
2025-11-12 $59.92 $57.94 $61.9

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.04% for the next trading day (2025-11-08), reaching $59.77.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-08 and 2025-11-12.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.700, suggests potential downward pressure on prices. The recent price movements show $63.63 for Brent and $59.75 for WTI, with the Brent-WTI spread at $3.88. Traders should monitor the support levels around $63.00 for Brent and $59.00 for WTI, as a break below these could lead to further declines. The flattening of forward curves indicates potential volatility in the near term. Additionally, with managed money positions remaining net short, this could lead to short-term opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on price corrections.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the implications of the current bearish market sentiment and the $63.63 Brent price in their production planning. The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight increase in demand for DoC crude, projected at 42.5 mb/d in 2025, but the inventory levels show a decline in crude stocks, which could affect pricing strategies. With US crude exports reaching 4.3 mb/d, there may be opportunities for hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and market sentiment. The increase in refinery margins could also provide a favorable environment for production adjustments.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should be aware of potential fluctuations in input costs, with Brent at $63.63 and WTI at $59.75. The supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical factors and the current bearish sentiment in the market. The recent increase in refinery margins may lead to procurement considerations for consumers, especially in the context of rising product demand and limited availability. It is crucial to monitor inventory levels and support levels in pricing to make informed procurement decisions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, with a significant number of articles reflecting this outlook. The fundamentals indicate a stable but slow growth in global oil demand, projected at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, while supply from non-DoC countries is expected to grow moderately. The balance of supply and demand is tightening, with OECD commercial inventories decreasing, which could signal potential price support in the long term. Analysts should focus on monitoring shifts in market dynamics and positioning, particularly as managed money traders exhibit a net short stance, which could indicate an upcoming market reversal.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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