Crude Oil Radar

Published: 11/09/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude oil has everything bearish about it - but the bulls are really trying to keep this close to 60. 57.35 is the line in the sand - if that goes - we could in fact drop all the way down to the 40s. Fundamentally I don’t see that happening - but staying in the 50s seems very likely for the near term. OPEC+ adding some more barrels in Nov/Dec along with China who is still importing over a million bopd ONLY FOR their strategic petroleum reserve. I think we’ll mostly be sideways but watch what happens when we get to 57.35 - that will be the last line of hope for bulls….and the attack point for bears. We only turn bullish if we get above 61.64 which is beyond the big psychological barrier of 60. 57.35 is a BIG BIG deal - probably why bulls are trying to keep us above there.

Updated: 2025-11-09 23:46:53 Length: 509 chars

Crude oil finds itself at a crucial juncture, with bulls desperately trying to hold prices above the significant $57.35 level. A breach could send prices tumbling into the $40s, although fundamentals suggest a more stable range in the $50s for now. OPEC+ is poised to increase supply, while China continues to import as it builds its strategic reserves. Watch for price movements around $61.64 for a bullish signal; otherwise, expect a sideways market amid government re-opening hopes and dollar fluctuations.

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.63 $0.25

WTI: $59.75 $0.32

Spread: $3.88 (Brent premium of $3.88)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $60.26

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.3

MA(20): $59.66

Current Price is 60.26, 9 day MA 60.3, 20 day MA 59.66

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3286

Signal: -0.4405

Days since crossover: 13

MACD crossed the line 13 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 48.55

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 48.55 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 10,789

Avg (20d): 258,397

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 55.62

%D: 51.42

Stochastic %K: 55.62, %D: 51.42. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.54

+DI: 15.19

-DI: 22.76

ADX: 17.54 (+DI: 15.19, -DI: 22.76). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -44.38

Williams %R: -44.38 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 62.45

Middle: 59.66

Lower: 56.88

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.45, Middle: 59.66, Lower: 56.88

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13651.0	13644.0	13500.0	12933.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5924.0	5051.0	5975.0	6362.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4367.0	4361.0	4261.0	3632.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	15256.0	15219.0	16053.0	15886.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	1557.0	690.0	1714.0	2730.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	421168.0	415966.0	425509.0	434725.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1678973.0	1677842.0	1634198.0	1622988.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	206009.0	210738.0	210868.0	211407.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	111546.0	112189.0	112862.0	110024.33

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.63, change $+0.25. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $59.75, change $+0.32. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.88 (Brent premium of $3.88). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.63

0.25

(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$59.75

0.32

(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.88

Brent premium of $3.88

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a modest increase in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket value averaging $70.39/b in September. Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, while production from both DoC and Non-DoC countries shows varying trends, indicating a complex supply-demand landscape.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Production (mb/d)	Demand (mb/d)
World Production	105.135	105.135
Non-DoC Production	51.439
DoC Production	43.05

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The global oil demand for 2025 is projected at approximately 105.135 mb/d, matching the total world production. This balance indicates a tight market, with potential for price fluctuations if production or demand shifts. The DoC production of 43.05 mb/d suggests that OPEC's output is critical in maintaining this equilibrium.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the US (22.067 mb/d), Canada (6.063 mb/d), and Brazil (4.389 mb/d). Notably, OPEC's production from DoC countries has increased by 630 tb/d to 43.05 mb/d, highlighting OPEC's role in stabilizing the market amidst rising Non-DoC production.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is expected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from the non-OECD regions, particularly China (16.853 mb/d) and India (5.704 mb/d). The OECD regions show minimal growth, indicating a shift in demand dynamics towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 43.05 mb/d. This trend underscores the increasing influence of Non-DoC countries in the global oil supply, challenging OPEC's traditional dominance in the market.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production adjustments, aiming to balance the rising Non-DoC output while maintaining price stability. The organization's strategic focus appears to be on sustaining its market share and ensuring that prices remain favorable amidst increasing competition.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As global oil demand continues to rise, particularly in non-OECD countries, OPEC may need to adjust its production strategies to maintain market equilibrium. Potential geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could also impact future supply and demand dynamics.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely, as they pose a significant challenge to OPEC's market share.
Consider strategic production adjustments to respond to changing demand patterns, especially in emerging markets.
Maintain open communication with member countries to ensure cohesive policy directions amidst market fluctuations.
Evaluate the impact of geopolitical developments on oil prices and adjust strategies accordingly.
Focus on enhancing operational efficiencies to remain competitive in a shifting landscape.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 32

Last Updated: 2025-11-09 23:49:43

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.61

Daily: 0.01 (0.01%)

Weekly: -0.61 (-0.61%)

US_10Y

4.09

Daily: 0.0 (0.0%)

Weekly: -0.01 (-0.32%)

SP500

6728.8

Daily: 8.48 (0.13%)

Weekly: -123.17 (-1.8%)

VIX

19.08

Daily: -0.42 (-2.15%)

Weekly: 1.91 (11.12%)

GOLD

4062.3

Daily: 62.9 (1.57%)

Weekly: 114.6 (2.9%)

COPPER

5.04

Daily: 0.1 (2.1%)

Weekly: 0.12 (2.34%)

Current Price: $60.26

Closest Support: $60.2 0.1% below current price

Closest Resistance: $61.38 1.86% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73

0.382 $60.2 Support

0.5 $61.38 Resistance

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $59.75

Forecast Generated: 2025-11-09 23:49:45

Next Trading Day: UP 0.05%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-08	$59.78	$57.8	$61.76
2025-11-09	$59.89	$57.91	$61.87
2025-11-10	$59.97	$57.99	$61.95
2025-11-11	$59.96	$57.98	$61.94
2025-11-12	$59.94	$57.96	$61.92

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.05% for the next trading day (2025-11-08), reaching $59.78.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-08 and 2025-11-12.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.6% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The current data indicates a bearish sentiment in the market, with a sentiment score of -0.600, reflecting concerns over supply and demand dynamics. The $63.63 price for Brent and $59.75 for WTI suggests a tightening market, especially with the Brent-WTI spread at $3.88, indicating a premium for Brent due to global supply issues.

Traders should monitor the support levels around $63.00 for Brent and $58.00 for WTI, while potential resistance could form near $67.00 for Brent. The risk of volatility remains, especially with hedge funds holding a net short position, which could lead to sudden price movements.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the forecast for global oil demand growth remaining stable at around 1.3 mb/d, producers should consider this in their production planning. The increase in crude oil production by DoC countries to 43.05 mb/d indicates a competitive market, which may pressure prices further.

The impact of inventory levels is significant, as OECD crude stocks are 13.1 mb lower than last year, suggesting tighter supply. This could be an opportunity for hedging strategies to mitigate potential price drops, especially as market sentiment remains bearish.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should be aware of potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices hover around $63.63 for Brent. The reliability of supply may be affected by geopolitical factors and the current inventory levels, which are below historical averages.

Planning for procurement should account for expected price volatility and consider hedging against potential spikes, particularly given the current market sentiment and the ongoing refinery maintenance season, which could tighten product availability.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a complex picture influenced by bearish sentiment, with managed money positions indicating a weakening bullish trend. The fundamental balance reflects stable demand growth against increasing supply from non-DoC producers, particularly the US and Brazil.

Key drivers include the geopolitical landscape affecting supply routes and the impact of refinery maintenance on product availability. Analysts should remain vigilant for shifts in sentiment and positioning, as these could signal potential outlook changes in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This analysis does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations. Please conduct your own research or consult with a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.