Crude Oil Radar

Published: 11/12/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection.

Updated: 2025-11-12 23:46:40 Length: 505 chars

Crude oil has been caught in a limbo as OPEC+ announces a modest increase but signals a Q1 pause on quotas. Currently, OPEC+ is under-delivering, particularly Nigeria, which is 260,000 bopd below target. If global demand surges, OPEC+ may struggle to meet it, leaving non-OPEC regions, which are price-sensitive, to fill the gap. Recent US inventory builds have pressured prices, which are testing the $60 mark, with a potential re-test at $57.35 looming. Keep an eye on those levels for market direction!

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -2/5

Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $65.16 $1.1

WTI: $61.04 $0.91

Spread: $4.12 (Brent premium of $4.12)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483

Weekly Change: 10,316

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $58.4

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BULLISH

MA(9): $60.1

MA(20): $59.78

Current Price is 58.4, 9 day MA 60.1, 20 day MA 59.78

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3697

Signal: -0.3955

Days since crossover: 15

MACD crossed the line 15 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 40.21

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 40.21 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 12,005

Avg (20d): 255,623

Ratio: 0.05

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 6.26

%D: 39.39

Stochastic %K: 6.26, %D: 39.39. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 17.3

+DI: 15.27

-DI: 24.65

ADX: 17.3 (+DI: 15.27, -DI: 24.65). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -93.74

Williams %R: -93.74 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 62.57

Middle: 59.78

Lower: 56.99

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 62.57, Middle: 59.78, Lower: 56.99

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13651.0	13644.0	13500.0	12933.33
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5924.0	5051.0	5975.0	6362.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	4367.0	4361.0	4261.0	3632.0
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	15256.0	15219.0	16053.0	15886.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	1557.0	690.0	1714.0	2730.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	421168.0	415966.0	425509.0	434725.0
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1678973.0	1677842.0	1634198.0	1622988.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	206009.0	210738.0	210868.0	211407.67
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	111546.0	112189.0	112862.0	110024.33

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $65.16, change $+1.1. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $61.04, change $+0.91. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.12 (Brent premium of $4.12). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$65.16

1.1

(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$61.04

0.91

(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.12

Brent premium of $4.12

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

In October, the OPEC Reference Basket value experienced a decline, averaging $65.20/b, reflecting broader market weaknesses amid bearish sentiment from hedge funds. Despite this, the physical oil market fundamentals remain healthy, with a stable global economic growth trajectory supporting demand forecasts.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Production (mb/d)	Demand (mb/d)
World Production (Total)	105.135
World Demand (Total)		105.135
Non-DoC Production	51.439
DoC Production	43.02

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current supply-demand balance indicates a tight market with total world demand matching total world production at approximately 105.135 mb/d. The slight decline in DoC production to 43.02 mb/d suggests a potential tightening in supply, which may lead to upward pressure on prices if demand continues to grow as forecasted.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global production include the US (22.067 mb/d), Canada (6.063 mb/d), and Brazil (4.389 mb/d). The total production from Non-DoC countries is projected at 51.439 mb/d, with a notable increase from the Americas and Asia Pacific regions, indicating a shift in production dynamics.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is expected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India. The demand from the Americas and Europe is stable but shows slower growth compared to emerging markets, highlighting a shift in consumption patterns.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected to be 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 43.02 mb/d. This indicates that Non-DoC countries are increasingly contributing to global supply, which may affect OPEC's market influence and pricing power moving forward.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is challenged by increasing Non-DoC production and a bearish outlook from financial markets. However, the organization may focus on maintaining price stability through coordinated production adjustments, especially as demand forecasts remain robust in the medium term.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As we move into 2026, the anticipated growth in global oil demand, particularly from non-OECD countries, suggests that OPEC may need to adapt its strategies to maintain market share. Continued monitoring of Non-DoC production trends will be crucial for OPEC's policy decisions.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely as they pose a competitive challenge to OPEC's market share.
Consider strategic production adjustments to respond to potential supply-demand imbalances.
Focus on enhancing relationships with key consuming countries to secure market stability.
Prepare for potential price volatility as market dynamics shift towards emerging economies.
Maintain flexibility in production strategies to adapt to changing global economic conditions.

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483

Change: -10,316

1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712

Change: -9,029

14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312

Change: +5,178

-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690

Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH

Average Polarity: -0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 60

Last Updated: 2025-11-12 23:49:42

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.52

Daily: 0.06 (0.06%)

Weekly: -0.21 (-0.21%)

US_10Y

4.07

Daily: -0.05 (-1.33%)

Weekly: -0.03 (-0.68%)

SP500

6850.92

Daily: 4.31 (0.06%)

Weekly: 130.6 (1.94%)

VIX

17.51

Daily: 0.23 (1.33%)

Weekly: -1.99 (-10.21%)

GOLD

4212.7

Daily: 105.9 (2.58%)

Weekly: 232.8 (5.85%)

COPPER

5.12

Daily: 0.07 (1.42%)

Weekly: 0.17 (3.53%)

Current Price: $58.4

Closest Support: $56.35 3.51% below current price

Closest Resistance: $58.73 0.57% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35 Support

0.236 $58.73 Resistance

0.382 $60.2

0.5 $61.38

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $61.04

Forecast Generated: 2025-11-12 23:49:43

Next Trading Day: UP 0.15%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-12	$61.13	$59.16	$63.11
2025-11-13	$61.15	$59.18	$63.13
2025-11-14	$61.11	$59.14	$63.09
2025-11-15	$61.02	$59.04	$62.99
2025-11-16	$60.94	$58.97	$62.92

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.15% for the next trading day (2025-11-12), reaching $61.13.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-12 and 2025-11-16.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is underscored by a $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket and a $3.63 decline in ICE Brent. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $4.12, indicating persistent differences in supply dynamics. The market structure remains in backwardation, suggesting potential volatility in the short term. Traders should monitor Fibonacci levels for potential support at $60 and resistance around $65. Additionally, the bearish positioning of managed money traders may signal further price declines, creating opportunities for short positions.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current balance of supply and demand indicates a slight decrease in demand for DoC crude, revised down to 42.4 mb/d for 2025. Producers should consider adjusting production planning accordingly, especially given the bearish market sentiment reflected in recent price declines. The increase in OECD commercial inventories by 6.0 mb suggests a need for strategic hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and inventory levels.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The bearish sentiment and lower crude prices may lead to potential input cost fluctuations for consumers. With the Brent and WTI prices averaging $63.95 and $60.07 respectively, procurement strategies should be evaluated to capitalize on lower costs. However, geopolitical factors and fluctuating inventory levels pose supply reliability risks that need to be monitored closely. It may be prudent to consider hedging options to mitigate the impact of potential price spikes in the coming months.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently facing a combination of bearish fundamentals and weakening technicals. The $5.19 drop in OPEC Reference Basket prices, alongside bearish managed money positioning, indicates potential downward pressure on prices. Key driving factors include stable global economic growth forecasts, but the supply-demand balance is tightening with increased OECD inventories and a slight decrease in DoC crude demand. Analysts should prepare for potential shifts in market sentiment as geopolitical risks and inventory levels continue to evolve.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.