Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-15 23:51

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/15/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-15 23:47:12 Length: 509 chars
Crude Oil finds itself in a state of limbo, with OPEC+ announcing a modest December production increase but pausing further quota hikes in Q1. Notably, Nigeria is underperforming its output targets, raising concerns about OPEC+'s readiness to meet potential demand spikes. Recent geopolitical tensions, including strikes on Russian ports, have pushed prices up, while fears of a price crash loom if demand doesn't materialize. Watch the $60 resistance and the potential re-test of $57.35 for market direction.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.39 $1.38
WTI: $60.09 $1.4
Spread: $4.3 (Brent premium of $4.30)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.09
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.75

MA(20): $59.97

Current Price is 60.09, 9 day MA 59.75, 20 day MA 59.97

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.3817

Signal: -0.3987

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 49.23

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 49.23 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 247,349

Avg (20d): 282,681

Ratio: 0.88

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 58.28

%D: 25.6

Stochastic %K: 58.28, %D: 25.6. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 16.7

+DI: 19.76

-DI: 21.59

ADX: 16.7 (+DI: 19.76, -DI: 21.59). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -41.72

Williams %R: -41.72 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 62.38

Middle: 59.97

Lower: 57.57

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.38, Middle: 59.97, Lower: 57.57

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13862.0 13651.0 13500.0 12900.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5222.0 5924.0 6240.0 6147.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2816.0 4367.0 2850.0 4063.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15973.0 15256.0 16334.0 16020.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2406.0 1557.0 3390.0 2083.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 427581.0 421168.0 427658.0 434818.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1682295.0 1678973.0 1634461.0 1617452.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 205064.0 206009.0 211280.0 210161.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 110909.0 111546.0 115809.0 109459.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $64.39, change $+1.38. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $60.09, change $+1.4. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.3 (Brent premium of $4.30). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.39
1.38
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$60.09
1.4
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.3
Brent premium of $4.30

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down by $5.19/b month-on-month. Global oil demand remains stable, with projections indicating a growth of approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, while production from Non-DoC countries is expected to increase, posing challenges for OPEC's market share.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.494 mb/d 105.135 mb/d
Non-DoC Production 51.439 mb/d -
DoC Production 43.02 mb/d -

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The supply-demand balance indicates a slight deficit in the market, with total world production at 104.494 mb/d against a demand of 105.135 mb/d. This imbalance suggests upward pressure on prices if the trend continues, particularly as Non-DoC production is expected to rise, potentially exacerbating the deficit for OPEC's crude.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the US (22.067 mb/d), Canada (6.063 mb/d), and Brazil (4.389 mb/d). OPEC's production from DoC countries has decreased to 43.02 mb/d, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 73 tb/d, indicating challenges in maintaining output levels amid rising Non-DoC production.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with significant contributions from the non-OECD regions, particularly China (16.852 mb/d) and India (5.704 mb/d). The OECD demand remains stagnant, suggesting that growth opportunities lie primarily in emerging markets, which may face challenges due to economic fluctuations.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 43.02 mb/d. This trend underscores the increasing influence of Non-DoC countries on global oil supply, which could challenge OPEC's market share and pricing power moving forward.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is under pressure due to declining prices and increasing competition from Non-DoC producers. The organization may need to consider strategic production adjustments to stabilize prices and maintain market share, particularly as demand growth is concentrated in non-OECD regions.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As the global economy continues to grow, OPEC may face challenges in balancing production with rising Non-DoC output. Monitoring economic indicators and adjusting production strategies will be crucial in navigating potential market fluctuations in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely as they pose a significant threat to OPEC's market share.
  • Consider strategic production cuts to stabilize prices amidst declining demand forecasts for DoC crude.
  • Focus on emerging markets for demand growth, particularly in Asia, to leverage potential increases in consumption.
  • Enhance collaboration among DoC members to ensure cohesive strategies in response to market dynamics.
  • Evaluate the impact of economic growth forecasts on oil demand to inform future production decisions.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 49
Last Updated: 2025-11-15 23:50:20

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (2 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.27
Daily: 0.09 (0.09%)
Weekly: -0.35 (-0.35%)

US_10Y

4.15
Daily: 0.04 (0.88%)
Weekly: 0.04 (0.92%)

SP500

6734.11
Daily: -3.38 (-0.05%)
Weekly: -98.32 (-1.44%)

VIX

19.83
Daily: -0.17 (-0.85%)
Weekly: 2.23 (12.67%)

GOLD

4087.6
Daily: -99.3 (-2.37%)
Weekly: -24.2 (-0.59%)

COPPER

5.05
Daily: -0.04 (-0.75%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-0.74%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.09
Closest Support: $58.73 2.26% below current price
Closest Resistance: $60.2 0.18% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $58.73 Support
0.382 $60.2 Resistance
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $60.09
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-15 23:50:24
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.2%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-15 $59.97 $57.8 $62.14
2025-11-16 $60.15 $57.98 $62.32
2025-11-17 $60.32 $58.15 $62.49
2025-11-18 $60.2 $58.03 $62.37
2025-11-19 $60.12 $57.95 $62.29

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.20% for the next trading day (2025-11-15), reaching $59.97.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-15 and 2025-11-19.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the $65.20/b for OPEC Reference Basket and $60.07/b for NYMEX WTI, indicates a bearish sentiment prevailing in the market. The $4.30 Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing supply/demand dynamics, suggesting a potential support level around the $60/b mark for WTI, with resistance potentially around $65/b.

Volatility is expected to continue as hedge funds maintain a bearish stance, and the managed money net position has decreased, indicating weakening bullish momentum. Traders should watch for short-term opportunities as the market may react to inventory reports and geopolitical developments.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The bearish sentiment in the market, coupled with a slight decrease in production from DoC countries, suggests that producers may need to reassess their hedging strategies. With OECD commercial inventories rising, there may be a need to adjust production planning to avoid oversupply risks.

The inventory levels, particularly the 1,331 mb of crude oil stocks, indicate a need for careful monitoring of market conditions. Engaging in proactive hedging could mitigate potential price declines as demand forecasts remain stable but cautious.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices averaging $60.07/b for WTI and $63.95/b for Brent, consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs. The risk factors include geopolitical tensions and supply reliability, especially with the balance of supply and demand showing signs of tightening.

Procurement strategies should consider the current bearish sentiment and the potential for price recovery should geopolitical risks escalate or if inventory levels start to decline significantly.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a combination of bearish technical indicators and fundamental balance between supply and demand. While global oil demand growth remains stable, the oversupply concerns highlighted in recent news sentiment are critical to monitor.

The overall outlook suggests a cautious approach, with the market sentiment leaning towards bearish as hedge fund positioning indicates a weakening bullish trend. Analysts should focus on key geopolitical developments and inventory reports as potential catalysts for market shifts.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions.

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