Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-11-18 16:51
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil has been in a holding pattern lately, with OPEC+ announcing a modest December production increase of 137 KBOPD, but maintaining a pause on quotas for Q1. Currently, OPEC+ is struggling to meet its targets, especially Nigeria, which is 260,000 bopd under its quota. This sets the stage for potential supply issues if global demand spikes. Traders are eyeing the $60 mark, anticipating a re-test of $57.35. Risk-off sentiment and oversupply concerns continue to pressure prices, as broader market volatility weighs heavily.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$64.2
$0.19
WTI:
$59.91
$0.18
Spread:
$4.29
(Brent premium of $4.29)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
26,483
Weekly Change:
10,316
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$60.55
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $59.79
MA(20): $60.23
Current Price is 60.55, 9 day MA 59.79, 20 day MA 60.23
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.2649
Signal: -0.3637
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 51.61
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 51.61 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 273,798
Avg (20d): 296,297
Ratio: 0.92
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 71.89
%D: 61.05
Stochastic %K: 71.89, %D: 61.05. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 14.74
+DI: 19.26
-DI: 19.0
ADX: 14.74 (+DI: 19.26, -DI: 19.0). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -28.11
Williams %R: -28.11 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 62.09
Middle: 60.23
Lower: 58.37
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.09, Middle: 60.23, Lower: 58.37
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13862.0 | 13651.0 | 13500.0 | 12900.0 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5222.0 | 5924.0 | 6240.0 | 6147.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2816.0 | 4367.0 | 2850.0 | 4063.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 15973.0 | 15256.0 | 16334.0 | 16020.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2406.0 | 1557.0 | 3390.0 | 2083.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 427581.0 | 421168.0 | 427658.0 | 434818.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1682295.0 | 1678973.0 | 1634461.0 | 1617452.67 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 205064.0 | 206009.0 | 211280.0 | 210161.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 110909.0 | 111546.0 | 115809.0 | 109459.0 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $64.2, change $-0.19. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $59.91, change $-0.18. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.29 (Brent premium of $4.29). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$64.2
0.19
(JAN 26)
WTI Crude
$59.91
0.18
(DEC 25)
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.29
Brent premium of $4.29
OPEC Analysis
OPEC Market Analysis
Executive Summary:
The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down $5.19/b from the previous month. Despite this price drop, global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, particularly in non-OECD regions, while production from non-DoC countries is expected to increase, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand dynamics.
Key Market Metrics:
| Category | Production/Demand (mb/d) |
|---|---|
| World Production | 105.135 mb/d |
| World Demand | 105.135 mb/d |
| Non-DoC Production | 51.439 mb/d |
| DoC Production | 43.02 mb/d |
Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:
The supply-demand balance indicates a tight market, with total world demand matching production at 105.135 mb/d. However, the DoC production at 43.02 mb/d suggests that OPEC's share of the market is under pressure from rising non-DoC production, which is expected to increase by 0.9 mb/d in 2025. This could lead to a surplus situation if demand does not keep pace with the anticipated production increases.
Production Landscape:
In 2025, the major contributors to global oil production include the US (22.067 mb/d), Saudi Arabia (part of DoC), and Russia (4.023 mb/d). The Americas lead with a total production of 25.186 mb/d, while the Middle East contributes 9.013 mb/d. Notably, production from DoC countries has decreased by 73 tb/d in October, highlighting potential challenges in maintaining output levels amidst rising competition from non-DoC producers.
Demand Patterns:
Global oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with non-OECD regions, particularly Asia, driving this growth. China and India are significant contributors, with demands of 16.853 mb/d and 5.704 mb/d, respectively. However, the OECD's demand growth remains stagnant, indicating a potential challenge for OPEC in balancing its production with the shifting demand landscape.
Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:
Non-DoC production is projected to reach 51.439 mb/d, significantly outpacing DoC production at 43.02 mb/d. This trend underscores the increasing influence of non-OECD producers, particularly the US, Brazil, and Canada, which are expected to drive growth in the coming years. The disparity between these production levels may necessitate strategic adjustments from OPEC to maintain market share.
OPEC's Strategic Position:
OPEC's current market position is challenged by declining prices and increasing competition from non-DoC producers. With a bearish sentiment prevailing among traders, OPEC may need to consider strategic production cuts or adjustments to its output policies to stabilize prices and maintain its influence in the global oil market.
Forward-Looking Indicators:
Looking ahead, the market may experience increased volatility as non-DoC production continues to rise. If demand growth does not keep pace, particularly in OECD countries, there could be significant downward pressure on prices. OPEC's ability to manage production levels will be critical in navigating these challenges.
Key Insights and Recommendations:
- Monitor non-DoC production trends closely, particularly from the US and Brazil, as they pose a competitive threat to OPEC's market share.
- Consider strategic production adjustments to mitigate price declines and stabilize the market.
- Focus on enhancing demand in OECD regions through targeted marketing and partnerships.
- Evaluate the potential for collaboration with non-DoC producers to balance supply and demand effectively.
- Stay vigilant regarding geopolitical developments that may impact oil supply chains and market dynamics.
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-09-23
Managed Money
26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI
Swap Dealers
-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI
Open Interest
1,936,690
Change: -25,930
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)
Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.6
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
29
Last Updated:
2025-11-18 16:50:19
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.6
Top News Topics
Geopolitical (4 articles)
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Moderate market volatility
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.6
Daily:
0.01 (0.01%)
Weekly:
0.12 (0.12%)
US_10Y
4.12
Daily:
-0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.43%)
SP500
6617.32
Daily:
-55.09 (-0.83%)
Weekly:
-233.6 (-3.41%)
VIX
24.69
Daily:
2.31 (10.32%)
Weekly:
7.18 (41.01%)
GOLD
4066.7
Daily:
-1.6 (-0.04%)
Weekly:
-137.7 (-3.28%)
COPPER
4.97
Daily:
-0.03 (-0.7%)
Weekly:
-0.12 (-2.45%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$60.55
Closest Support:
$60.2
0.58% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$61.38
1.37% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
0.236
$58.73
0.382
$60.2
Support
0.5
$61.38
Resistance
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$59.91
Forecast Generated:
2025-11-18 16:50:22
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.3%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-18 | $60.09 | $57.92 | $62.26 |
| 2025-11-19 | $60.25 | $58.07 | $62.42 |
| 2025-11-20 | $60.13 | $57.96 | $62.3 |
| 2025-11-21 | $60.06 | $57.89 | $62.23 |
| 2025-11-22 | $60.06 | $57.88 | $62.23 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.30% for the next trading day (2025-11-18), reaching $60.09.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-18 and 2025-11-22.
- The average confidence interval width is ~7.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The Crude Oil market is currently reflecting a bearish sentiment with the OPEC Reference Basket value dropping to an average of $65.20/b. The $3.88/b Brent-WTI spread indicates potential short-term trading opportunities, particularly given the ongoing backwardation in the forward curves, which suggests healthy physical market fundamentals despite the price declines.
Traders should monitor key support levels around $60.00/b for WTI and $63.00/b for Brent. Volatility may increase due to geopolitical tensions, especially with news sentiment trending negatively (-0.600 score). The bearish positioning of hedge funds, with a net position of 26,483 contracts, suggests potential price weakness ahead, but caution is advised as extreme positioning can indicate reversals.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the NYMEX WTI averaging $60.07/b, necessitates a review of hedging strategies. With the demand for DoC crude revised down to 42.4 mb/d, producers should assess production levels and operational efficiency to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices.
Current inventory levels indicate a tight balance in the market, with OECD commercial stocks rising but still below historical averages. This could impact supply reliability, particularly in light of geopolitical risks affecting production flows. Producers should consider adjusting their output plans in response to the market sentiment and inventory trends.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. The recent drop in crude prices to around $60.07/b may offer some relief, but ongoing geopolitical tensions pose supply reliability risks that could lead to price spikes.
As refining margins improve, particularly in the USGC, consumers should evaluate procurement strategies and consider hedging options to manage costs effectively. With product exports increasing, particularly from the US, there could be opportunities to secure favorable pricing, but vigilance is needed as the market sentiment remains negative.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market is characterized by a bearish sentiment, with significant price declines across benchmarks. Key driving factors include a global oil demand growth forecast remaining stable at 1.3 mb/d for 2025 and a slight increase in non-DoC production. However, the recent bearish positioning of managed money traders indicates potential weakness in price trends.
Analysts should focus on the implications of the supply-demand balance, particularly with OECD commercial stocks rising but still under historical averages. The geopolitical landscape remains a critical factor impacting market dynamics, and attention to news sentiment is essential as it trends negatively. Overall, while the fundamentals suggest a stable demand outlook, the current bearish sentiment requires close monitoring for potential outlook shifts.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations
Weather Analysis
Natural Gas Weather Impact:
HIGH heating demand - significant cold spell
(Heating-dominated conditions driving natural gas demand)
Weather Analysis Summary
Heating Degree Days (Utility Gas Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
122.0 HDD
-9.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
122.0 HDD
-25.0 vs Normal
Cooling Degree Days (Population Weighted)
Last 7 Days:
2.0 CDD
+0.0 vs Normal
Next 7 Days:
6.0 CDD
+6.0 vs Normal
Weather Trend Analysis (Click charts to zoom)
HDD Analysis
CDD Analysis
×
![Zoomed Chart]()
Chart Analysis
Detailed Data
Recent HDD Data
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | 23.0 | 17.0 | +6.0 |
| 11/11 | 23.0 | 19.0 | +4.0 |
| 11/12 | 18.0 | 19.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/13 | 15.0 | 19.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/14 | 14.0 | 19.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/15 | 13.0 | 19.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/16 | 16.0 | 19.0 | -3.0 |
HDD Forecast
| Date | HDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/18 | 20.0 | 20.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/19 | 18.0 | 20.0 | -2.0 |
| 11/20 | 17.0 | 20.0 | -3.0 |
| 11/21 | 15.0 | 21.0 | -6.0 |
| 11/22 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
| 11/23 | 18.0 | 22.0 | -4.0 |
| 11/24 | 17.0 | 22.0 | -5.0 |
Recent CDD Data
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/10 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/11 | 0.0 | 1.0 | -1.0 |
| 11/12 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/13 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/14 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
| 11/15 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/16 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
CDD Forecast
| Date | CDD | Normal | Anomaly |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/18 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/19 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/20 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/21 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/22 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/23 | 1.0 | 0.0 | +1.0 |
| 11/24 | 0.0 | 0.0 | +0.0 |
Data Source: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC)
Region: CONUS
Climatology: 1981-2010 Normal Period