Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-18 18:12

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/18/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-18 18:08:22 Length: 520 chars
Crude Oil has been navigating a tricky path lately, caught in limbo with OPEC+ signaling a quota increase in December but pausing further increases into Q1. Despite rising inventories and Nigeria’s production woes, a strong demand spike could catch OPEC+ off guard. Recent hawkish EU rhetoric on Russia has provided fleeting support, while risk-off sentiment from broader market sell-offs keeps pressure on prices. Watch for potential retests of key levels, especially around $60 and the next inflection point at $57.35.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.2 $0.19
WTI: $59.91 $0.18
Spread: $4.29 (Brent premium of $4.29)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.57
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.79

MA(20): $60.23

Current Price is 60.57, 9 day MA 59.79, 20 day MA 60.23

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.2633

Signal: -0.3634

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 51.71

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 51.71 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 277,015

Avg (20d): 296,458

Ratio: 0.93

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 72.49

%D: 61.24

Stochastic %K: 72.49, %D: 61.24. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.74

+DI: 19.26

-DI: 19.0

ADX: 14.74 (+DI: 19.26, -DI: 19.0). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -27.51

Williams %R: -27.51 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 62.09

Middle: 60.23

Lower: 58.37

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.09, Middle: 60.23, Lower: 58.37

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13862.0 13651.0 13500.0 12900.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5222.0 5924.0 6240.0 6147.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2816.0 4367.0 2850.0 4063.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15973.0 15256.0 16334.0 16020.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2406.0 1557.0 3390.0 2083.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 427581.0 421168.0 427658.0 434818.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1682295.0 1678973.0 1634461.0 1617452.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 205064.0 206009.0 211280.0 210161.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 110909.0 111546.0 115809.0 109459.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $64.2, change $-0.19. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $59.91, change $-0.18. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.29 (Brent premium of $4.29). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.2
0.19
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$59.91
0.18
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.29
Brent premium of $4.29

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

In October, OPEC faced a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b, reflecting a $5.19/b drop month-on-month. Despite this, the market fundamentals remain robust, as evidenced by a stable global demand forecast and a slight decrease in production from DoC countries.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production
  • Americas: 25.19
  • Europe: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific: 7.13
  • Total OECD: 45.83
  • China: 16.85
  • India: 5.70
  • Other Asia: 9.89
  • Latin America: 6.89
  • Middle East: 9.01
  • Africa: 4.80
  • Russia: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia: 1.31
  • Other Europe: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD: 59.31
  • Americas Demand: 25.19
  • Europe Demand: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13
  • Total OECD Demand: 45.83
  • China Demand: 16.85
  • India Demand: 5.70
  • Other Asia Demand: 9.89
  • Latin America Demand: 6.89
  • Middle East Demand: 9.01
  • Africa Demand: 4.80
  • Russia Demand: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31
  • Other Europe Demand: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.31
  • Total World Demand: 105.14

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current analysis indicates a balanced supply-demand scenario with total world production at 105.14 mb/d and total world demand at 105.14 mb/d, suggesting no significant surplus or deficit. However, the slight decrease in DoC production to 43.02 mb/d may impact future supply stability.

Production Landscape:

In 2025, the Americas lead global production with 25.19 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.51 mb/d. Notably, the US Non-DoC production is projected at 22.07 mb/d, indicating its significant role in the global supply chain. The Middle East's production remains stable at 9.01 mb/d, reflecting ongoing geopolitical dynamics.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, driving this growth. The demand from the OECD regions is relatively stagnant, indicating a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected at 51.44 mb/d, significantly outpacing DoC production at 43.02 mb/d. This trend underscores the increasing reliance on non-OPEC producers, particularly from the Americas and Brazil, which are expected to contribute substantially to global supply growth.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a cautious approach to production levels amidst fluctuating prices. The organization may consider adjusting output to stabilize prices further as global demand continues to evolve, particularly in non-OECD regions.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the oil market may experience increased volatility due to geopolitical tensions and shifting demand dynamics. OPEC's ability to adapt to these changes will be crucial in maintaining market stability and price levels.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor production levels closely, especially from Non-DoC countries, as they significantly influence global supply.
  • Focus on emerging markets for demand growth opportunities, particularly in Asia.
  • Consider strategic adjustments in production to respond to price fluctuations and maintain market stability.
  • Enhance collaboration with Non-DoC producers to ensure a balanced global oil supply.
  • Stay informed on geopolitical developments that may impact oil prices and supply chains.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 30
Last Updated: 2025-11-18 18:11:13

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Geopolitical (6 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.6
Daily: 0.01 (0.01%)
Weekly: 0.11 (0.12%)

US_10Y

4.12
Daily: -0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly: 0.06 (1.43%)

SP500

6617.32
Daily: -55.09 (-0.83%)
Weekly: -233.6 (-3.41%)

VIX

24.69
Daily: 2.31 (10.32%)
Weekly: 7.18 (41.01%)

GOLD

4070.0
Daily: 1.7 (0.04%)
Weekly: -134.4 (-3.2%)

COPPER

4.97
Daily: -0.03 (-0.63%)
Weekly: -0.12 (-2.38%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.57
Closest Support: $60.2 0.61% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.38 1.34% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $58.73
0.382 $60.2 Support
0.5 $61.38 Resistance
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $59.91
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-18 18:11:16
Next Trading Day: UP 0.3%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-18 $60.09 $57.92 $62.26
2025-11-19 $60.25 $58.07 $62.42
2025-11-20 $60.13 $57.96 $62.3
2025-11-21 $60.06 $57.89 $62.23
2025-11-22 $60.06 $57.88 $62.23

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.30% for the next trading day (2025-11-18), reaching $60.09.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-18 and 2025-11-22.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market, reflected by the $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket value, suggests potential volatility ahead. The $3.88 Brent-WTI spread indicates differing supply/demand dynamics, which could present short-term trading opportunities, especially if the spread tightens or widens based on geopolitical developments. Traders should monitor for support levels around the $60 mark for WTI and $63 for Brent, while resistance levels may form near $65 for both. The bearish positioning of managed money traders, with a net position of 26,483 contracts, signals a cautious approach in the near term.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decline in crude oil prices calls for a reassessment of production planning and hedging strategies. With OECD commercial inventories rising by 6.0 mb, producers may need to consider adjusting output to avoid oversupply in a bearish market. The 73 tb/d decrease in DoC production highlights the necessity for monitoring global supply dynamics closely. The balance between supply and demand indicates a potential for further price pressures, especially if geopolitical tensions escalate or if inventory levels continue to rise.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should brace for potential input cost fluctuations as crude prices remain under pressure. The $60 WTI and $63 Brent prices may affect procurement strategies. The geopolitical risks highlighted in recent news, combined with the 1.7 mb/d decline in global refinery intakes, could lead to supply reliability risks. It is advisable to explore hedging options to mitigate exposure to rising prices or potential supply chain disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current crude oil market presents a complex picture characterized by bearish sentiment and a balance of supply and demand that favors caution. The $5.19 drop in OPEC Reference Basket prices, coupled with a 26,483 contracts net short position from managed money, indicates a potential for downward price pressure. However, the backwardation in the forward curves suggests underlying strength in physical markets. Analysts should monitor the effects of geopolitical developments and inventory levels, as these will significantly influence market dynamics moving forward.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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