Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-18 18:25

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/18/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-18 18:22:10 Length: 562 chars
Crude Oil has been navigating a tricky landscape, with OPEC+ announcing a slight December production increase while failing to meet existing quotas, particularly Nigeria's shortfall of 260,000 bopd. This sets the stage for potential supply issues if global demand spikes. Recent inventory increases and hawkish EU rhetoric have provided a fleeting lift to prices, yet bearish sentiment persists amid risk-off trading. Key levels to watch include the $60 battleground and the potential re-test of $57.35, as traders balance fundamentals against market volatility.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.2 $0.19
WTI: $59.91 $0.18
Spread: $4.29 (Brent premium of $4.29)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.72
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.81

MA(20): $60.24

Current Price is 60.72, 9 day MA 59.81, 20 day MA 60.24

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.2514

Signal: -0.361

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 52.41

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 52.41 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 753

Avg (20d): 282,645

Ratio: 0.0

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 76.92

%D: 62.72

Stochastic %K: 76.92, %D: 62.72. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.7

+DI: 19.62

-DI: 19.64

ADX: 14.7 (+DI: 19.62, -DI: 19.64). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -23.08

Williams %R: -23.08 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 62.1

Middle: 60.24

Lower: 58.37

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.1, Middle: 60.24, Lower: 58.37

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13862.0 13651.0 13500.0 12900.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5222.0 5924.0 6240.0 6147.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2816.0 4367.0 2850.0 4063.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15973.0 15256.0 16334.0 16020.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2406.0 1557.0 3390.0 2083.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 427581.0 421168.0 427658.0 434818.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1682295.0 1678973.0 1634461.0 1617452.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 205064.0 206009.0 211280.0 210161.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 110909.0 111546.0 115809.0 109459.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $64.2, change $-0.19. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $59.91, change $-0.18. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.29 (Brent premium of $4.29). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.2
0.19
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$59.91
0.18
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.29
Brent premium of $4.29

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

In October, OPEC faced a challenging market environment with a notable decline in crude oil prices, attributed to a bearish sentiment among traders and a weakening market structure across major benchmarks. Despite these challenges, the physical oil market fundamentals remain healthy, supported by steady global economic growth and demand forecasts.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Value (mb/d)
World Production
  • Americas: 25.19
  • Europe: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific: 7.13
  • Total OECD: 45.83
  • China: 16.85
  • India: 5.70
  • Other Asia: 9.89
  • Latin America: 6.89
  • Middle East: 9.01
  • Africa: 4.80
  • Russia: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia: 1.31
  • Other Europe: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD: 59.31
World Demand
  • Americas Demand: 25.19
  • Europe Demand: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13
  • Total OECD Demand: 45.83
  • China Demand: 16.85
  • India Demand: 5.70
  • Other Asia Demand: 9.89
  • Latin America Demand: 6.89
  • Middle East Demand: 9.01
  • Africa Demand: 4.80
  • Russia Demand: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31
  • Other Europe Demand: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.31
  • Total World Demand: 105.14
Non-DoC Production
  • US Non-DoC Production: 22.07
  • Canada Non-DoC Production: 6.06
  • Chile Non-DoC Production: 0.01
  • OECD Americas Non-DoC Production: 28.14
  • Norway Non-DoC Production: 2.02
  • UK Non-DoC Production: 0.72
  • Denmark Non-DoC Production: 0.07
  • Other OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 0.76
  • OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 3.58
  • Australia Non-DoC Production: 0.35
  • Total OECD Non-DoC Production: 32.14
  • China Non-DoC Production: 4.61
  • India Non-DoC Production: 0.82
  • Indonesia Non-DoC Production: 0.83
  • Thailand Non-DoC Production: 0.39
  • Vietnam Non-DoC Production: 0.18
  • Total Non-OECD Non-DoC Production: 19.30
DoC Production Data not provided in the raw data.

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current supply-demand balance indicates a potential surplus in the market, with total world production at approximately 105.14 mb/d against a similar demand forecast. The slight decrease in DoC crude demand to 42.4 mb/d in 2025 suggests a tightening of the market, which may lead to price adjustments if the trend continues.

Production Landscape:

Major producers such as the US, Canada, and Brazil are expected to drive Non-DoC production growth, while OPEC's DoC production has seen a decrease to about 43.02 mb/d. This shift highlights the importance of monitoring production levels in these key regions as they significantly impact global supply dynamics.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, leading this growth. However, OECD demand remains relatively stagnant, indicating a shift in consumption patterns that may challenge traditional market dynamics.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected at 51.44 mb/d, significantly outpacing DoC production, which has decreased. This trend underscores the increasing influence of non-OPEC producers in the global oil market, potentially leading to shifts in OPEC's pricing power and strategic decisions.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is challenged by declining prices and a shift in demand dynamics. The organization may need to consider adjusting production levels to stabilize prices and maintain market share amidst increasing competition from non-OPEC producers.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As we move into the coming months, the market may experience further volatility due to geopolitical tensions, changes in demand forecasts, and production adjustments from both OPEC and Non-OPEC countries. Monitoring these indicators will be crucial for anticipating market movements.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the impact of Non-DoC production growth on OPEC's market share and pricing strategies.
  • Evaluate the implications of stagnant OECD demand on future production decisions.
  • Consider potential adjustments in output to counter

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 30
Last Updated: 2025-11-18 18:25:08

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.6
Daily: 0.01 (0.01%)
Weekly: 0.12 (0.12%)

US_10Y

4.12
Daily: -0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly: 0.06 (1.43%)

SP500

6617.32
Daily: -55.09 (-0.83%)
Weekly: -233.6 (-3.41%)

VIX

24.69
Daily: 2.31 (10.32%)
Weekly: 7.18 (41.01%)

GOLD

4071.0
Daily: 2.7 (0.07%)
Weekly: -133.4 (-3.17%)

COPPER

4.97
Daily: -0.03 (-0.67%)
Weekly: -0.12 (-2.42%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.72
Closest Support: $60.2 0.86% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.38 1.09% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $58.73
0.382 $60.2 Support
0.5 $61.38 Resistance
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $59.91
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-18 18:25:10
Next Trading Day: UP 0.3%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-18 $60.09 $57.92 $62.26
2025-11-19 $60.25 $58.07 $62.42
2025-11-20 $60.13 $57.96 $62.3
2025-11-21 $60.06 $57.89 $62.23
2025-11-22 $60.06 $57.88 $62.23

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.30% for the next trading day (2025-11-18), reaching $60.09.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-18 and 2025-11-22.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market, reflected in a $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket, indicates potential volatility in the short term. The $3.88 Brent-WTI spread, while narrower, suggests a balanced market, but with the potential for further downside risks given the bearish positioning of 26,483 contracts in managed money. Traders should watch for support around Fibonacci levels near $60.00 for WTI and $63.00 for Brent, with resistance at $64.00 for Brent and $61.00 for WTI. Short-term opportunities may arise from fluctuations in geopolitical tensions affecting supply dynamics.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decline in crude oil prices poses challenges for production planning. With 43.02 mb/d average production from OPEC countries, producers should consider adjusting their hedging strategies to mitigate potential losses. The increase in OECD commercial stocks by 6.0 mb suggests an oversupplied market, which may lead to further price pressures. Producers should closely monitor inventory levels and adjust production rates accordingly to align with the supply-demand balance and leverage the current market sentiment for operational adjustments.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should brace for potential fluctuations in input costs as crude prices remain under pressure, with WTI averaging $60.07 and Brent at $63.95. The geopolitical risks highlighted, particularly around Russian supply, could impact supply reliability. It is advisable for consumers to consider procurement strategies that account for possible supply disruptions and to evaluate hedging options to safeguard against rising costs amid fluctuating product availability.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The current crude oil market reflects significant bearish sentiment, driven by declining prices and increased inventories. Key factors include the supply-demand balance showing a slight oversupply, particularly in the OECD regions, and a stable global economic growth forecast. The bearish positioning in managed money indicates a cautious outlook among speculators. Analysts should focus on monitoring geopolitical developments and inventory levels as they may signal shifts in market dynamics and potential price recovery or further declines.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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