Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-18 23:51

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/18/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-18 23:47:14 Length: 518 chars
Crude Oil remains in a state of limbo, with OPEC+ announcing a modest production increase of 137,000 bpd for December, yet struggling to meet current quotas—Nigeria is notably 260,000 bpd below target. Rising U.S. inventories are reinforcing oversupply concerns, leading to price pressure as the market hovers around the $60 mark. Risk-off sentiment is prevailing, with expectations that if demand picks up, OPEC+'s inability to meet it could create significant price volatility. Watch for potential support at $57.35.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: BUY | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.2 $0.19
WTI: $59.91 $0.18
Spread: $4.29 (Brent premium of $4.29)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 26,483
Weekly Change: 10,316

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $60.45
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.78

MA(20): $60.22

Current Price is 60.45, 9 day MA 59.78, 20 day MA 60.22

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.2729

Signal: -0.3653

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 51.13

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 51.13 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 12,147

Avg (20d): 275,991

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 68.93

%D: 60.06

Stochastic %K: 68.93, %D: 60.06. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.7

+DI: 19.62

-DI: 19.64

ADX: 14.7 (+DI: 19.62, -DI: 19.64). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -31.07

Williams %R: -31.07 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

ABOVE MIDDLE

Upper: 62.08

Middle: 60.22

Lower: 58.37

Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 62.08, Middle: 60.22, Lower: 58.37

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13862.0 13651.0 13500.0 12900.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5222.0 5924.0 6240.0 6147.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2816.0 4367.0 2850.0 4063.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 15973.0 15256.0 16334.0 16020.0
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2406.0 1557.0 3390.0 2083.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 427581.0 421168.0 427658.0 434818.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1682295.0 1678973.0 1634461.0 1617452.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 205064.0 206009.0 211280.0 210161.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 110909.0 111546.0 115809.0 109459.0

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $64.2, change $-0.19. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $59.91, change $-0.18. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.29 (Brent premium of $4.29). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.2
0.19
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$59.91
0.18
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.29
Brent premium of $4.29

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down by $5.19/b month-on-month. Despite a bearish outlook from hedge funds, the physical oil market fundamentals remain healthy, supported by stable global economic growth and a projected increase in oil demand.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Value (mb/d)
World Production
  • Americas: 25.19
  • Europe: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific: 7.13
  • Total OECD: 45.83
  • China: 16.85
  • India: 5.70
  • Other Asia: 9.89
  • Latin America: 6.89
  • Middle East: 9.01
  • Africa: 4.80
  • Russia: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia: 1.31
  • Other Europe: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD: 59.31
World Demand
  • Americas Demand: 25.19
  • Europe Demand: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13
  • Total OECD Demand: 45.83
  • China Demand: 16.85
  • India Demand: 5.70
  • Other Asia Demand: 9.89
  • Latin America Demand: 6.89
  • Middle East Demand: 9.01
  • Africa Demand: 4.80
  • Russia Demand: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31
  • Other Europe Demand: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.31
  • Total World Demand: 105.14
Non-DoC Production
  • US Non-DoC Production: 22.07
  • Canada Non-DoC Production: 6.06
  • Chile Non-DoC Production: 0.01
  • OECD Americas Non-DoC Production: 28.14
  • Norway Non-DoC Production: 2.02
  • UK Non-DoC Production: 0.72
  • Denmark Non-DoC Production: 0.07
  • Other OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 0.76
  • OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 3.58
  • Australia Non-DoC Production: 0.35
  • China Non-DoC Production: 4.61
  • India Non-DoC Production: 0.82
  • Indonesia Non-DoC Production: 0.83
  • Thailand Non-DoC Production: 0.39
  • Vietnam Non-DoC Production: 0.18
  • Total Non-OECD Non-DoC Production: 19.30
DoC Production
  • DoC crude production: 43.02 (October)

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The supply-demand balance indicates a slight surplus in the market, with total world production at 105.14 mb/d against a demand of 105.14 mb/d. This equilibrium suggests that while the market is stable, any disruptions in supply or unexpected demand increases could lead to a tightening of the market.

Production Landscape:

Production is primarily driven by the Americas, with the US leading as a major contributor at 22.07 mb/d. The Middle East and Russia also play significant roles, producing 9.01 mb/d and 4.02 mb/d, respectively. Notably, production from Non-DoC countries is forecasted to grow, particularly in the US and Brazil, which are expected to drive growth in the coming years.

Demand Patterns:

Demand growth is anticipated to be robust in the non-OECD regions, particularly in Asia, where China and India are projected to contribute significantly to the overall demand increase. The OECD region shows modest growth, indicating a divergence in demand patterns between developed and developing economies.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted to reach approximately 51.44 mb/d, while DoC production stands at 43.02 mb/d. This highlights the increasing role of Non-DoC producers in the global oil supply landscape, particularly as they continue to expand their output capabilities.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current position is characterized by a cautious approach to production levels amidst fluctuating prices and a bearish sentiment in the futures market. The organization may consider adjusting output to stabilize prices while balancing the interests of member countries and the global market dynamics.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the market is likely to experience continued volatility due to geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. However, the projected growth in global oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries, suggests potential for price recovery if supply constraints emerge.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor Non-DoC production trends as they may significantly impact global supply dynamics.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-23

Managed Money

26,483
Change: -10,316
1.4% of OI

Producer/Merchant

283,712
Change: -9,029
14.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-402,312
Change: +5,178
-20.8% of OI

Open Interest

1,936,690
Change: -25,930

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-23

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,936,690 contracts (-25,930)

Managed Money Net Position: 26,483 contracts (1.4% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -10,316 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 283,712 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -402,312 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 34
Last Updated: 2025-11-18 23:50:23

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Geopolitical (5 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEGATIVE - Economic indicators showing headwinds
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.6
Daily: 0.01 (0.01%)
Weekly: 0.12 (0.12%)

US_10Y

4.12
Daily: -0.01 (-0.24%)
Weekly: 0.06 (1.43%)

SP500

6617.32
Daily: -55.09 (-0.83%)
Weekly: -233.6 (-3.41%)

VIX

24.69
Daily: 2.31 (10.32%)
Weekly: 7.18 (41.01%)

GOLD

4075.9
Daily: 7.6 (0.19%)
Weekly: -128.5 (-3.06%)

COPPER

4.97
Daily: -0.03 (-0.56%)
Weekly: -0.12 (-2.31%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $60.45
Closest Support: $60.2 0.41% below current price
Closest Resistance: $61.38 1.54% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $58.73
0.382 $60.2 Support
0.5 $61.38 Resistance
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $60.74
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-18 23:50:25
Next Trading Day: UP 0.25%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-19 $60.89 $58.72 $63.06
2025-11-20 $60.79 $58.62 $62.97
2025-11-21 $60.73 $58.56 $62.9
2025-11-22 $60.68 $58.5 $62.85
2025-11-23 $60.61 $58.44 $62.78

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price increase of ~0.25% for the next trading day (2025-11-19), reaching $60.89.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-19 and 2025-11-23.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.2% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the $65.20 average for the OPEC Reference Basket, indicates potential bearish sentiment in the market. The $3.88 Brent-WTI spread suggests a neutral outlook, but caution is warranted given the weakening managed money positioning (26,483 contracts) and bearish sentiment score of -0.700.

Traders should monitor support levels around the recent lows, as a break below these could lead to increased volatility. Conversely, resistance may be found near the Fibonacci retracement levels from previous highs. The convergence of bearish sentiment and declining open interest may present short-term trading opportunities, but risks remain elevated due to geopolitical factors.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market conditions necessitate a reevaluation of production planning. With global oil demand growth forecasts stable at 1.3 mb/d, producers should consider the implications of the $60.07 average for WTI and the bearish sentiment reflected in the CFTC positioning.

Inventory levels, particularly the 2,845 mb in OECD commercial stocks, suggest a need for careful hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with potential oversupply. The decrease in DoC crude production, now averaging 43.02 mb/d, may provide some support, but producers should remain vigilant to shifts in demand and geopolitical tensions that could impact operations.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

The recent fluctuations in crude prices, with WTI at $60.07, may lead to potential input cost changes for refineries and transportation sectors. Given the geopolitical risks and the bearish sentiment in the market, consumers should prepare for possible volatility in procurement costs.

The decline in crude imports to the US (5.6 mb/d) and the rise in product exports (7 mb/d) signal a tightening supply scenario. This could affect supply reliability, making it crucial for consumers to consider procurement strategies that hedge against price fluctuations and ensure stable supply chains.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market currently reflects a bearish sentiment driven by several factors: declining prices, increased inventories, and weakening managed money positions. The stable demand growth forecast of 1.3 mb/d contrasts with oversupply concerns, particularly in the US market, as indicated by rising inventories.

Analysts should closely monitor the implications of geopolitical developments and their potential impact on market dynamics. The current backwardation in the forward curves indicates healthy physical market fundamentals, but the overall sentiment suggests caution. Future outlooks may shift based on changes in global economic growth forecasts, currently stable at 3.0% for 2025 and 2026.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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