Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-19 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/19/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-19 23:46:47 Length: 516 chars
Crude oil has been in a holding pattern, with a slight uptick following OPEC+'s December production increase of 137 KBOPD, yet a Q1 quota pause raises concerns about supply responsiveness to potential demand spikes. OPEC+ is notably underperforming, especially Nigeria, which is 260,000 bopd below target. The market is currently battling around $60, with forecasts suggesting a possible retest of $57.35. Watch for any shifts in geopolitical dynamics and demand, as these could significantly impact price movements.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: BUY | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $64.89 $0.69
WTI: $60.74 $0.83
Spread: $4.15 (Brent premium of $4.15)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 14,053
Weekly Change: 12,430

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $59.43
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.81

MA(20): $60.28

Current Price is 59.43, 9 day MA 59.81, 20 day MA 60.28

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BULLISH

MACD: -0.2752

Signal: -0.3436

Days since crossover: 4

MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 46.21

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 46.21 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 10,350

Avg (20d): 262,235

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 38.76

%D: 56.41

Stochastic %K: 38.76, %D: 56.41. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.87

+DI: 18.51

-DI: 17.92

ADX: 13.87 (+DI: 18.51, -DI: 17.92). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -61.24

Williams %R: -61.24 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 62.02

Middle: 60.28

Lower: 58.55

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 62.02, Middle: 60.28, Lower: 58.55

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13834.0 13862.0 13400.0 12833.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5950.0 5222.0 6509.0 7092.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4158.0 2816.0 3440.0 4468.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16232.0 15973.0 16509.0 16047.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1792.0 2406.0 3069.0 2623.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 424155.0 427581.0 429747.0 436670.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1680113.0 1682295.0 1628553.0 1621003.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 207391.0 205064.0 206873.0 212115.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 111080.0 110909.0 114415.0 109654.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $64.89, change $+0.69. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $60.74, change $+0.83. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.15 (Brent premium of $4.15). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$64.89
0.69
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$60.74
0.83
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.15
Brent premium of $4.15

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October. Global oil demand growth forecasts remain stable, while production levels from both DoC and Non-DoC countries indicate a complex interplay of supply and demand dynamics.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 105.13519174813922 105.13519174813922
Non-DoC Production 51.439034 59.30677953960115
DoC Production 43.02 42.4

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight surplus in the market, with total world production at approximately 105.14 mb/d against a similar demand level. The demand for DoC crude has been revised down to 42.4 mb/d for 2025, suggesting a tightening market for OPEC producers.

Production Landscape:

Production by region shows that the Americas lead with 25.19 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.51 mb/d and the Middle East at 9.01 mb/d. Notably, Non-DoC production is driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina, indicating a shift in global production dynamics.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, primarily driven by non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia. China and India remain significant contributors to this growth, with demand forecasts of 16.85 mb/d and 5.70 mb/d, respectively.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.44 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production, which stands at 43.02 mb/d. This highlights the increasing role of Non-DoC producers in meeting global oil demand, presenting challenges for OPEC's market share.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is characterized by a need to adapt to declining prices and shifting demand patterns. The organization may consider adjusting production levels to stabilize prices while maintaining its influence in the global oil market.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

In the coming months, OPEC may face continued pressure from Non-DoC producers, particularly if demand growth in key markets like China and India remains robust. Monitoring geopolitical developments and production adjustments will be crucial for OPEC's strategy.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely, as they are increasingly influencing global supply dynamics.
  • Consider strategic production cuts to support crude prices amidst declining demand forecasts for DoC crude.
  • Focus on enhancing cooperation among member countries to maintain market stability.
  • Evaluate potential impacts of geopolitical tensions on oil supply and demand.
  • Stay vigilant regarding economic growth forecasts in major consuming countries, particularly in Asia.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-30

Managed Money

14,053
Change: -12,430
0.7% of OI

Producer/Merchant

273,661
Change: -10,051
13.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-406,757
Change: -4,445
-20.3% of OI

Open Interest

2,006,358
Change: 69,668

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-30

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,006,358 contracts (+69,668)

Managed Money Net Position: 14,053 contracts (0.7% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -12,430 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 273,661 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -406,757 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 58
Last Updated: 2025-11-19 23:49:51

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (6 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (12 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.24
Daily: 0.69 (0.69%)
Weekly: 1.06 (1.07%)

US_10Y

4.13
Daily: 0.01 (0.24%)
Weekly: 0.02 (0.51%)

SP500

6642.16
Daily: 24.84 (0.38%)
Weekly: -95.33 (-1.41%)

VIX

23.66
Daily: -1.03 (-4.17%)
Weekly: 3.66 (18.3%)

GOLD

4074.6
Daily: 13.3 (0.33%)
Weekly: -112.3 (-2.68%)

COPPER

5.04
Daily: 0.08 (1.57%)
Weekly: -0.05 (-0.92%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $59.43
Closest Support: $58.73 1.18% below current price
Closest Resistance: $60.2 1.3% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35
0.236 $58.73 Support
0.382 $60.2 Resistance
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $59.44
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-19 23:49:54
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.16%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-20 $59.35 $57.16 $61.54
2025-11-21 $59.24 $57.05 $61.44
2025-11-22 $59.18 $56.99 $61.37
2025-11-23 $59.23 $57.04 $61.42
2025-11-24 $59.31 $57.12 $61.5

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.16% for the next trading day (2025-11-20), reaching $59.35.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-20 and 2025-11-24.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~7.4% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.600, indicates potential volatility in crude prices. The Brent-WTI spread currently at $4.15 suggests that while Brent prices may be supported by international dynamics, WTI remains under pressure, reflecting the ongoing oversupply concerns in the U.S. market.

Traders should monitor key support levels around $60 for WTI and $64 for Brent, as these levels could provide insights into potential price reversals. The weakened market structure and net positioning of managed money, which has shifted to a bullish but weakening stance, could present short-term opportunities for traders looking to capitalize on price fluctuations.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The drop in crude prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b, necessitates a reassessment of hedging strategies and production planning. The decline in DoC crude production and the increase in U.S. crude exports to 4.2 mb/d may affect market dynamics, indicating a need for producers to stay agile in response to inventory levels which have increased but remain below historical averages.

The balance between supply and demand is shifting, with global oil demand growth forecast stable at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, suggesting that producers should focus on operational efficiency and market adaptability to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices and market sentiment.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices stabilizing around $60.07/b for WTI, consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations. The bearish sentiment in the market, alongside rising U.S. inventories, suggests that supply reliability risks may arise, particularly from geopolitical tensions and changes in product flows.

The recent improvement in refining margins, particularly for middle distillates, may offer some relief, but consumers should remain vigilant of inventory levels and potential disruptions in product availability, especially as global refinery intakes have declined. Strategic procurement and hedging considerations may be prudent in the current environment.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by a combination of factors including rising U.S. inventories, a weakened market structure, and a decline in managed money net positions. The stable global economic growth forecast at 3.0% for 2025, alongside modest oil demand growth, indicates a complex interplay of supply and demand fundamentals that could influence market dynamics in the near term.

Analysts should pay close attention to the implications of the balance between DoC

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