Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-20 23:51

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/20/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-20 23:47:13 Length: 535 chars
Crude Oil has been in a state of limbo, recently impacted by OPEC+'s production quota discussions, with Nigeria notably underperforming its targets. The market is now re-testing the $60 battleground, with a potential dip towards $57.35 as global demand remains uncertain. Recent headlines about a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal have led to fears, causing oil prices to hit a four-week low. Traders should watch for these geopolitical developments and OPEC's ability to meet demand, as they significantly influence market direction.

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.51 $1.38
WTI: $59.44 $1.3
Spread: $4.07 (Brent premium of $4.07)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: 14,053
Weekly Change: 12,430

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $58.09
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.62

MA(20): $60.1

Current Price is 58.09, 9 day MA 59.62, 20 day MA 60.1

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.3983

Signal: -0.3544

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 40.82

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 40.82 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 21,634

Avg (20d): 230,021

Ratio: 0.09

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 2.01

%D: 39.53

Stochastic %K: 2.01, %D: 39.53. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.04

+DI: 16.7

-DI: 21.79

ADX: 14.04 (+DI: 16.7, -DI: 21.79). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -97.99

Williams %R: -97.99 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT LOWER

Upper: 61.94

Middle: 60.1

Lower: 58.26

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout lower. Upper: 61.94, Middle: 60.1, Lower: 58.26

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13834.0 13862.0 13400.0 12833.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5950.0 5222.0 6509.0 7092.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4158.0 2816.0 3440.0 4468.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16232.0 15973.0 16509.0 16047.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1792.0 2406.0 3069.0 2623.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 424155.0 427581.0 429747.0 436670.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1680113.0 1682295.0 1628553.0 1621003.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 207391.0 205064.0 206873.0 212115.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 111080.0 110909.0 114415.0 109654.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.51, change $-1.38. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $59.44, change $-1.3. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.07 (Brent premium of $4.07). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.51
1.38
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$59.44
1.3
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.07
Brent premium of $4.07

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down from previous months. Global oil demand continues to grow, albeit modestly, while production from OPEC members has seen slight reductions, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 105.135 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439 -
DoC Production 43.02 -

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The global oil supply and demand figures indicate a balanced market, with total world demand at 105.135 mb/d matching the total production. However, the slight decrease in DoC production to 43.02 mb/d suggests that OPEC may be responding to market conditions to maintain price stability.

Production Landscape:

Production by region shows that the Americas lead with 25.19 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.51 mb/d and the Middle East at 9.01 mb/d. Notably, OPEC's DoC production has decreased by 73 tb/d, highlighting a strategic adjustment in response to market dynamics.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, driving most of this demand. The OECD regions are expected to see minimal growth, indicating potential challenges for OPEC in maintaining market share in these mature markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production remains robust at 51.439 mb/d, significantly contributing to the global supply. In contrast, DoC production is lower at 43.02 mb/d, which may reflect OPEC's strategy to manage supply in light of fluctuating demand and prices.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position appears cautious, with a focus on stabilizing prices amid declining benchmarks. The organization may continue to adjust production levels to align with demand forecasts and maintain its influence in the global oil market.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As we look ahead, the anticipated growth in global oil demand, particularly in non-OECD countries, suggests that OPEC may need to balance production cuts with the need to meet rising demand. Market participants should prepare for potential volatility as OPEC navigates these dynamics.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor the impact of production adjustments by OPEC on global oil prices.
  • Focus on emerging markets, particularly in Asia, for future demand growth opportunities.
  • Consider the implications of declining DoC production on OPEC's market share and pricing strategies.
  • Stay informed on geopolitical developments that could affect oil supply chains.
  • Evaluate refining margins and product demand trends as indicators of market health.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bullish but Weakening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-09-30

Managed Money

14,053
Change: -12,430
0.7% of OI

Producer/Merchant

273,661
Change: -10,051
13.6% of OI

Swap Dealers

-406,757
Change: -4,445
-20.3% of OI

Open Interest

2,006,358
Change: 69,668

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-09-30

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,006,358 contracts (+69,668)

Managed Money Net Position: 14,053 contracts (0.7% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -12,430 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 273,661 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -406,757 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish but Weakening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 66
Last Updated: 2025-11-20 23:50:19

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (7 articles)

Demand (3 articles)

Infrastructure (1 articles)

Geopolitical (14 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

NEUTRAL - Mixed economic signals
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Weaker industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.12
Daily: -0.11 (-0.11%)
Weekly: 0.85 (0.86%)

US_10Y

4.11
Daily: -0.03 (-0.65%)
Weekly: -0.04 (-1.01%)

SP500

6538.76
Daily: -103.4 (-1.56%)
Weekly: -195.35 (-2.9%)

VIX

26.42
Daily: 2.76 (11.67%)
Weekly: 6.59 (33.23%)

GOLD

4048.1
Daily: -29.6 (-0.73%)
Weekly: -39.5 (-0.97%)

COPPER

4.93
Daily: -0.07 (-1.5%)
Weekly: -0.12 (-2.31%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $58.09
Closest Support: $56.35 3.0% below current price
Closest Resistance: $58.73 1.1% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35 Support
0.236 $58.73 Resistance
0.382 $60.2
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $59.14
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-20 23:50:22
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.18%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-21 $59.03 $57.06 $61.01
2025-11-22 $58.96 $56.99 $60.93
2025-11-23 $59.01 $57.03 $60.98
2025-11-24 $59.11 $57.13 $61.08
2025-11-25 $59.13 $57.16 $61.11

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.18% for the next trading day (2025-11-21), reaching $59.03.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-21 and 2025-11-25.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The bearish sentiment in the market is reinforced by the recent price declines. The $65.20/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket indicates a significant drop, suggesting potential support levels around this mark. Traders should monitor the $3.88/b Brent-WTI spread, which reflects ongoing differences in supply and demand dynamics. The recent bearish positioning by hedge funds, with a net position of 14,053 contracts, indicates a cautious approach. Short-term opportunities may arise from volatility around these levels, but the resistance is likely to be tested as prices approach the $60/b mark.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

With the bearish outlook and declining prices, producers should reassess their hedging strategies to protect against further price drops. The inventory levels, particularly the 1,331 mb of crude oil stocks, indicate a supply surplus, which could pressure prices further. Production planning should account for the impact of geopolitical tensions and fluctuating demand forecasts, especially as global oil demand growth remains at 1.3 mb/d for 2025. Monitoring the 43.02 mb/d output from DoC countries will be critical in evaluating market conditions.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. The $63.95/b Brent price may lead to supply reliability risks due to geopolitical factors and inventory levels. The bearish sentiment in the market suggests that consumers could benefit from locking in prices now, as the market may face further downside. Additionally, the recent uptick in product exports, particularly from the US, could provide opportunities for procurement strategies amidst changing supply dynamics in the market.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bearish phase, driven by several factors: declining prices across major benchmarks, a $5.19/b drop in the OPEC Reference Basket, and bearish sentiment from traders. The global economic growth forecast remains stable, but demand growth is modest at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, indicating a potential mismatch between supply and demand. The fundamental balance is further complicated by rising US inventories and geopolitical tensions impacting supply chains. Analysts should closely monitor the Brent-WTI spread and positioning data to gauge market shifts and potential recovery signals.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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