Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-21 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/21/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step. If this goes down below 57.35, we could head down to the 40s - I expect a battleground at this level for the next few weeks.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-21 23:46:43 Length: 514 chars
Crude Oil has been stuck in limbo recently, with OPEC+ extending a production quota pause while underperforming on existing targets, especially Nigeria, which is lagging by 260,000 bopd. This leaves OPEC+ vulnerable if global demand surges, as non-OPEC regions may not ramp up production quickly enough. Currently, prices are battling around $60, with a potential drop to $57.35 looming. Sentiment is mixed due to potential peace talks in Ukraine and a strong dollar, pushing oil to a one-month low. Watch closely!

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.38 $0.13
WTI: $59.14 $0.3
Spread: $4.24 (Brent premium of $4.24)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: -17,481
Weekly Change: 31,534

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $58.06
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.51

MA(20): $59.98

Current Price is 58.06, 9 day MA 59.51, 20 day MA 59.98

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.4285

Signal: -0.3558

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 40.42

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 40.42 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 324,282

Avg (20d): 242,680

Ratio: 1.34

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 17.44

%D: 28.89

Stochastic %K: 17.44, %D: 28.89. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.99

+DI: 15.36

-DI: 23.52

ADX: 13.99 (+DI: 15.36, -DI: 23.52). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -82.56

Williams %R: -82.56 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT LOWER

Upper: 61.75

Middle: 59.98

Lower: 58.21

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout lower. Upper: 61.75, Middle: 59.98, Lower: 58.21

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13834.0 13862.0 13400.0 12833.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5950.0 5222.0 6509.0 7092.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4158.0 2816.0 3440.0 4468.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16232.0 15973.0 16509.0 16047.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1792.0 2406.0 3069.0 2623.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 424155.0 427581.0 429747.0 436670.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1680113.0 1682295.0 1628553.0 1621003.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 207391.0 205064.0 206873.0 212115.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 111080.0 110909.0 114415.0 109654.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.38, change $-0.13. WTI crude (DEC 25) settled at $59.14, change $-0.3. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.24 (Brent premium of $4.24). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.38
0.13
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$59.14
0.3
(DEC 25)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.24
Brent premium of $4.24

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down from the previous month. Global oil demand remains stable, with projections for 2025 indicating a growth of approximately 1.3 mb/d, while production from non-DoC countries is expected to increase, contributing to a complex supply-demand landscape.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Value (mb/d)
World Production
  • Americas: 25.19
  • Europe: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific: 7.13
  • Total OECD: 45.83
  • China: 16.85
  • India: 5.70
  • Other Asia: 9.89
  • Latin America: 6.89
  • Middle East: 9.01
  • Africa: 4.80
  • Russia: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia: 1.31
  • Other Europe: 0.82
  • Total Non-OECD: 59.31
World Demand
  • Americas Demand: 25.19
  • Europe Demand: 13.51
  • Asia Pacific Demand: 7.13
  • Total OECD Demand: 45.83
  • China Demand: 16.85
  • India Demand: 5.70
  • Other Asia Demand: 9.89
  • Latin America Demand: 6.89
  • Middle East Demand: 9.01
  • Africa Demand: 4.80
  • Russia Demand: 4.02
  • Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31
  • Other Europe Demand: 0.82
  • Total World Demand: 105.14
Non-DoC Production
  • US Non-DoC Production: 22.07
  • Canada Non-DoC Production: 6.06
  • Chile Non-DoC Production: 0.01
  • Total OECD Non-DoC Production: 32.14
  • China Non-DoC Production: 4.61
  • India Non-DoC Production: 0.82
  • Latin America Non-DoC Production: 7.53
  • Middle East Non-DoC Production: 2.01
  • Africa Non-DoC Production: 2.28
  • Total Non-OECD Non-DoC Production: 19.30
DoC Production 43.02 (October average)

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The analysis indicates a balanced supply-demand scenario for 2025, with total world demand at approximately 105.14 mb/d and total production from DoC countries averaging 43.02 mb/d. This suggests a potential surplus from non-DoC production, particularly from the US and Brazil, which could exert downward pressure on prices if demand does not increase as projected.

Production Landscape:

Production trends show that the Americas remain the largest contributor to global oil supply, with the US leading as a significant non-DoC producer. The Middle East continues to play a crucial role, but production from OPEC countries has seen a slight decrease, indicating potential challenges in maintaining output levels amidst rising non-OPEC production.

Demand Patterns:

Demand growth is primarily driven by non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia where China and India are expected to see significant increases. However, OECD demand remains relatively stagnant, suggesting that future growth will largely depend on emerging markets rather than established economies.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is projected to grow significantly, driven by the US and Brazil, while DoC production remains stable but slightly lower than previous forecasts. This divergence highlights the increasing influence of non-OPEC producers in the global oil market, potentially challenging OPEC's market share and pricing power.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position reflects a cautious approach, balancing production levels to support prices while facing increasing competition from non-OPEC producers. The organization may need to adapt its strategies to maintain its influence amidst changing market dynamics and rising production from non-DoC countries.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the market is likely to experience fluctuations in prices due to the interplay between rising non-DoC production and stable demand growth. OPEC's ability to manage its output effectively will be crucial in navigating these challenges and maintaining price stability in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor non-DoC production trends, particularly from the US and Brazil, as they could impact global pricing.
  • Focus on demand growth in emerging markets, especially in Asia, to identify potential opportunities.
  • Consider strategic adjustments in production levels to respond to market dynamics and maintain price stability.
  • Evaluate the impact of geopolitical developments on supply chains and market access for OPEC members.
  • Enhance collaboration among OPEC members to ensure a unified approach to production and pricing strategies.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Extremely Bearish (Potential Reversal Risk)
Report Date: 2025-10-07

Managed Money

-17,481
Change: -31,534
-0.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

294,284
Change: +20,623
14.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-392,340
Change: +14,417
-19.3% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,074
Change: 29,716

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-07

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,074 contracts (+29,716)

Managed Money Net Position: -17,481 contracts (-0.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -31,534 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 294,284 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -392,340 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Extremely Bearish (Potential Reversal Risk)

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 62
Last Updated: 2025-11-21 23:49:57

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (5 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (10 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.2
Daily: 0.04 (0.04%)
Weekly: 0.61 (0.61%)

US_10Y

4.06
Daily: -0.04 (-1.05%)
Weekly: -0.07 (-1.69%)

SP500

6602.99
Daily: 64.23 (0.98%)
Weekly: -69.42 (-1.04%)

VIX

23.43
Daily: -2.99 (-11.32%)
Weekly: 1.05 (4.69%)

GOLD

4062.8
Daily: 6.3 (0.16%)
Weekly: -5.5 (-0.14%)

COPPER

5.0
Daily: 0.04 (0.74%)
Weekly: -0.0 (-0.08%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $58.06
Closest Support: $56.35 2.95% below current price
Closest Resistance: $58.73 1.15% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35 Support
0.236 $58.73 Resistance
0.382 $60.2
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $59.14
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-21 23:49:59
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.18%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-21 $59.04 $57.06 $61.01
2025-11-22 $58.96 $56.99 $60.93
2025-11-23 $59.01 $57.03 $60.98
2025-11-24 $59.1 $57.13 $61.08
2025-11-25 $59.13 $57.16 $61.1

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.18% for the next trading day (2025-11-21), reaching $59.04.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-21 and 2025-11-25.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is reflected in the $63.95 average for ICE Brent and $60.07 for NYMEX WTI. The risk factors include the ongoing bearish positioning of managed money, which has a net position of -17,481 contracts, indicating potential for further downward pressure on prices. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.88, suggesting a convergence in U.S. and global supply/demand dynamics. Traders should watch for potential support at recent lows and Fibonacci retracement levels, while also considering volatility driven by geopolitical events and inventory reports.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should assess their hedging strategies in light of the current bearish market sentiment, particularly given the 73 tb/d decrease in production from DoC countries in October. The $65.20 average for the OPEC Reference Basket suggests that production planning may need to be adjusted to maintain profitability. Additionally, the increase in OECD commercial inventories by 6.0 mb indicates a potential oversupply, which could impact pricing and necessitate a review of operational costs and production levels.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, with current WTI prices around $60.07 and Brent at $63.95. The supply reliability risks are heightened due to geopolitical tensions and changing inventory levels, particularly with U.S. crude exports hitting an eight-month high of 4.2 mb/d. It’s crucial to monitor refining margins, which have improved, especially in the U.S. Gulf Coast, as this may affect procurement strategies and hedging decisions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment driven by high inventories and weak demand signals. The balance of supply and demand is shifting, with a forecasted global oil demand growth of 1.3 mb/d in 2025, contrasted by a supply increase of 0.9 mb/d from non-DoC countries. Analysts should focus on the implications of managed money positioning, which is extremely bearish, indicating potential market reversals. Additionally, geopolitical developments and their impact on supply chains should be closely monitored to provide accurate forecasts and insights.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

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