Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-22 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/22/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step. If this goes down below 57.35, we could head down to the 40s - I expect a battleground at this level for the next few weeks.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-22 23:47:14 Length: 521 chars
Crude oil remains in a precarious limbo, with OPEC+ announcing a December quota increase of 137 KBOPD but pausing further increases in Q1. Nigeria's production is notably under quota, raising concerns about OPEC+’s readiness for potential demand spikes. Recent market sentiment was influenced by hopes for a Russian-Ukraine peace deal, leading to price drops. Currently, the $60 level is a critical battleground, with a potential test of $57.35 ahead, while further declines could push prices into the 40s. Stay vigilant!

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -2/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $62.56 $0.82
WTI: $58.06 $0.94
Spread: $4.5 (Brent premium of $4.50)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: -17,481
Weekly Change: 31,534

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -2 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $58.06
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.51

MA(20): $59.98

Current Price is 58.06, 9 day MA 59.51, 20 day MA 59.98

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.4285

Signal: -0.3558

Days since crossover: 1

MACD crossed the line 1 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 40.42

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 40.42 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

HIGHER

Current: 324,282

Avg (20d): 242,680

Ratio: 1.34

Volume is higher versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 17.44

%D: 28.89

Stochastic %K: 17.44, %D: 28.89. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.99

+DI: 15.36

-DI: 23.52

ADX: 13.99 (+DI: 15.36, -DI: 23.52). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

OVERSOLD

Value: -82.56

Williams %R: -82.56 (oversold)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BREAKOUT LOWER

Upper: 61.75

Middle: 59.98

Lower: 58.21

Price vs BBands (20, 2): breakout lower. Upper: 61.75, Middle: 59.98, Lower: 58.21

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13834.0 13862.0 13400.0 12833.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 5950.0 5222.0 6509.0 7092.0
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 4158.0 2816.0 3440.0 4468.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16232.0 15973.0 16509.0 16047.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 1792.0 2406.0 3069.0 2623.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 424155.0 427581.0 429747.0 436670.33
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1680113.0 1682295.0 1628553.0 1621003.0
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 207391.0 205064.0 206873.0 212115.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 111080.0 110909.0 114415.0 109654.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $62.56, change $-0.82. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.06, change $-0.94. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.5 (Brent premium of $4.50). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$62.56
0.82
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$58.06
0.94
(JAN 26)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.5
Brent premium of $4.50

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices amidst stable global economic growth. With a decrease in both OPEC Reference Basket and other crude benchmarks, the market is experiencing a bearish sentiment among traders, despite healthy physical oil market fundamentals.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Production (mb/d) Demand (mb/d)
World Production 104.1341 105.1352
Non-DoC Production 51.4390 N/A
DoC Production 43.0200 N/A

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current supply-demand balance indicates a slight deficit in the market, with total world demand at approximately 105.14 mb/d, while total production stands at around 104.13 mb/d. This deficit may lead to upward pressure on prices if the trend continues, particularly as demand is expected to grow in the non-OECD regions.

Production Landscape:

Major producers include the United States, which contributes significantly to Non-DoC production at 22.07 mb/d, followed by Canada and Brazil. The DoC production from OPEC countries averages around 43.02 mb/d, reflecting a decrease of 73 tb/d month-on-month. This trend highlights the challenges OPEC faces in maintaining production levels amidst fluctuating market conditions.

Demand Patterns:

Demand growth is primarily driven by non-OECD countries, particularly in Asia, where demand from China and India remains robust. The total world demand is projected to grow by about 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD region contributing significantly to this increase.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted to reach 51.44 mb/d, significantly higher than the DoC production of 43.02 mb/d. This indicates that Non-DoC countries are playing an increasingly vital role in meeting global oil demand, potentially undermining OPEC's influence over the market.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position appears challenged due to declining production levels and bearish market sentiment. The organization may need to reassess its production strategies to stabilize prices and maintain its market share against rising Non-DoC production.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As global oil demand is expected to increase, particularly in non-OECD regions, OPEC may face pressure to adjust its production levels. Monitoring economic indicators and geopolitical developments will be crucial in forecasting market trends in the coming months.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor Non-DoC production trends as they significantly impact global supply dynamics.
  • OPEC should consider strategic production adjustments to counteract bearish market sentiments.
  • Focus on enhancing cooperation among member countries to stabilize production levels.
  • Stay informed on economic growth forecasts in major consuming regions to anticipate demand shifts.
  • Evaluate the impact of geopolitical events on oil prices and production strategies.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Extremely Bearish (Potential Reversal Risk)
Report Date: 2025-10-07

Managed Money

-17,481
Change: -31,534
-0.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

294,284
Change: +20,623
14.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-392,340
Change: +14,417
-19.3% of OI

Open Interest

2,036,074
Change: 29,716

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-07

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,036,074 contracts (+29,716)

Managed Money Net Position: -17,481 contracts (-0.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -31,534 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 294,284 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -392,340 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Extremely Bearish (Potential Reversal Risk)

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.7
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 48
Last Updated: 2025-11-22 23:50:17

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.7

Top News Topics

Supply (2 articles)

Demand (2 articles)

Geopolitical (8 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Moderate market volatility

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

100.18
Daily: 0.02 (0.02%)
Weekly: 0.59 (0.59%)

US_10Y

4.06
Daily: -0.04 (-1.05%)
Weekly: -0.07 (-1.69%)

SP500

6602.99
Daily: 64.23 (0.98%)
Weekly: -69.42 (-1.04%)

VIX

23.43
Daily: -2.99 (-11.32%)
Weekly: 1.05 (4.69%)

GOLD

4076.7
Daily: 20.2 (0.5%)
Weekly: 8.4 (0.21%)

COPPER

5.01
Daily: 0.05 (0.99%)
Weekly: 0.01 (0.17%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $58.06
Closest Support: $56.35 2.95% below current price
Closest Resistance: $58.73 1.15% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35 Support
0.236 $58.73 Resistance
0.382 $60.2
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $58.06
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-22 23:50:19
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.13%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-22 $57.98 $55.98 $59.98
2025-11-23 $57.99 $55.99 $59.99
2025-11-24 $58.08 $56.08 $60.08
2025-11-25 $58.19 $56.19 $60.19
2025-11-26 $58.27 $56.27 $60.27

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.13% for the next trading day (2025-11-22), reaching $57.98.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-22 and 2025-11-26.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.9% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent decline in crude oil prices, with the $65.20/b average for the OPEC Reference Basket and $60.07/b for NYMEX WTI, signals a bearish market sentiment. The $3.88/b Brent-WTI spread indicates ongoing supply/demand dynamics favoring Brent, potentially providing short-term trading opportunities. Traders should watch for support levels around $60.00/b and resistance levels near $65.00/b. Given the extreme bearish positioning from Managed Money, there is potential for a market reversal, which could create volatility in the near term.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The current market dynamics suggest a need for careful production planning, especially as the balance of supply and demand shows a downward revision in demand for DoC crude to 42.4 mb/d. With OECD commercial inventories rising, producers should consider hedging strategies to mitigate potential price declines. The bearish sentiment reflected in the market sentiment indicates that producers may face challenges in securing favorable pricing, necessitating adjustments in operational strategies.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly as WTI and Brent prices remain under pressure. The recent increase in crude imports and the balance of supply suggests a reliable supply chain, although geopolitical risks could disrupt this stability. With refining margins improving, especially in the USGC, consumers might explore procurement strategies to take advantage of lower prices while also considering hedging options to protect against future price spikes.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The crude oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by declining prices and a significant shift in Managed Money positioning. Key factors include stable global economic growth forecasts, but with demand growth stagnating at about 1.3 mb/d for 2025. Analysts should closely monitor geopolitical developments and inventory levels, as these will be crucial in shaping future price movements. The combination of bearish technical indicators and fundamental supply concerns could indicate a need for a cautious outlook.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.

© 2025 Energy Research - All Rights Reserved