Crude Oil Radar

2025-11-26 23:50

Table of Contents

Brian's Thoughts

Published: 11/26/2025 Focus: Crude Oil
Crude has just been in limbo for a few weeks - we had the OPEC+ news of another increase in December +137 KBOPD but a Q1 pause on any quota increases. Bear in mind, when OPEC+ releases the numbers the discussion is QUOTA and not production - currently as a whole OPEC+ is not meeting their quotas - particularly Nigeria which is 260,000 bopd UNDER what their stated output target is - this is important as this sets up the broader narrative: if (and that is a BIG IF) the demand picks up globally - OPEC+ is structurally underprepared to meet a spike in demand which leaves non-OPEC regions to meet that spike - well those regions only respond to price and simply put - non-OPEC is unlikely to grow at 60, 70, 80….we would need a greater number to see growth in non-OPEC regions. As for this week - I am watching the battle at $60 and believe we are headed back to re-test 57.35 as the next point of inflection. $60 is still the battleground as Russia took the headlines with EU conversations about potential for Russian supplies to tighten. Still seeing 57.35 as the next step. If this goes down below 57.35, we could head down to the 40s - I expect a battleground at this level for the next few weeks. Monday trading was a recovery from Fridays sell off - as bulls have fended off 57.35 for now…I am still watching that level.

Today's Update

Updated: 2025-11-26 23:46:55 Length: 537 chars
Crude Oil remains in a precarious limbo as OPEC+ signals increased production but struggles with execution, particularly from Nigeria, which is lagging behind its targets. With a looming $60 battleground and a potential re-test of $57.35, traders are keeping a close eye on the broader demand outlook. Recent geopolitical developments, especially concerning Russia and Ukraine, add to the volatility. Expect choppy trading ahead, especially as we gauge OPEC+’s ability to respond to potential demand spikes. Watch for key levels closely!

Market Summary

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish
Score: -3/5
Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $62.48 $0.89
WTI: $57.95 $0.89
Spread: $4.53 (Brent premium of $4.53)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)
Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BEARISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: -18,766
Weekly Change: 1,285

Technical Analysis

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)
Current Price: $58.35
Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.25

MA(20): $59.77

Current Price is 58.35, 9 day MA 59.25, 20 day MA 59.77

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.502

Signal: -0.4002

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 42.64

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 42.64 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 4,494

Avg (20d): 232,204

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BEARISH CROSS

%K: 24.87

%D: 26.58

Stochastic %K: 24.87, %D: 26.58. Signal: bearish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.44

+DI: 14.98

-DI: 21.23

ADX: 14.44 (+DI: 14.98, -DI: 21.23). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -75.13

Williams %R: -75.13 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 61.61

Middle: 59.77

Lower: 57.93

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 61.61, Middle: 59.77, Lower: 57.93

Fundamental Analysis

Category Current Last Week Last Year 3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) 13814.0 13834.0 13201.0 12931.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 6436.0 5950.0 7684.0 5984.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 3598.0 4158.0 4378.0 4788.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) 16443.0 16232.0 16228.0 16318.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) 2838.0 1792.0 3306.0 1195.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 426929.0 424155.0 430292.0 432398.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 1682173.0 1680113.0 1633001.0 1618476.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 209904.0 207391.0 208927.0 214731.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) 112227.0 111080.0 114301.0 112714.33

International Price Analysis

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $62.48, change $-0.89. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $57.95, change $-0.89. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.53 (Brent premium of $4.53). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$62.48
0.89
(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$57.95
0.89
(JAN 26)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.53
Brent premium of $4.53

OPEC Analysis

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

In October, the OPEC Reference Basket value experienced a decline, averaging $65.20/b, reflecting broader market weakness amid bearish sentiment from hedge funds. Despite this, the physical oil market fundamentals remain healthy, with demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026 stable at approximately 1.3 mb/d and 1.4 mb/d, respectively.

Key Market Metrics:

Category Value (mb/d)
World Production 105.135
World Demand 105.135
Non-DoC Production 51.439
DoC Production 43.02

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The current data indicates a balanced supply-demand scenario, with total world production matching total world demand at approximately 105.135 mb/d. This equilibrium suggests no immediate surplus or deficit, which may stabilize prices in the near term. However, the slight decrease in DoC production by 73 tb/d in October could impact future supply dynamics if demand continues to grow.

Production Landscape:

Production by region shows that the Americas lead with 25.19 mb/d, followed by Non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, contributing significantly with 16.85 mb/d and 5.70 mb/d, respectively. Notably, Non-DoC production is primarily driven by the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina, indicating a robust production landscape outside OPEC's control.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, with the non-OECD regions expected to account for the majority of this increase. China and India remain key growth areas, with demand figures of 16.85 mb/d and 5.70 mb/d, respectively. However, challenges such as potential economic slowdowns in major economies could pose risks to these growth forecasts.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.439 mb/d, significantly higher than DoC production at 43.02 mb/d. This disparity highlights the increasing role of non-OPEC producers in the global oil market, which may influence OPEC's pricing power and strategic decisions moving forward.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position reflects a cautious approach as it navigates a balanced supply-demand landscape. With stable demand forecasts and a slight reduction in DoC production, OPEC may consider adjusting its production strategies to maintain market stability and support prices amidst external pressures.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

As demand is expected to grow steadily, OPEC may need to monitor production levels closely, particularly from Non-DoC countries. Any significant shifts in global economic conditions or geopolitical tensions could impact both supply and demand dynamics, necessitating agile responses from OPEC to safeguard its market interests.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

  • Monitor Non-DoC production trends closely as they increasingly influence global supply dynamics.
  • Prepare for potential adjustments in production levels to respond to changing demand forecasts.
  • Maintain communication with member countries to ensure cohesive strategies in light of market fluctuations.
  • Consider the implications of economic growth forecasts in key regions, particularly in Asia, on future demand.
  • Stay vigilant regarding geopolitical developments that could disrupt supply chains and market stability.

CFTC CoT Analysis

Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning: Normal Range
Report Date: 2025-10-14

Managed Money

-18,766
Change: -1,285
-0.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

295,445
Change: +1,161
14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-376,825
Change: +15,515
-18.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,066,590
Change: 30,516

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-14

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,066,590 contracts (+30,516)

Managed Money Net Position: -18,766 contracts (-0.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -1,285 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 295,445 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -376,825 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

News Analysis

Market Sentiment Overview

BEARISH
Average Polarity: -0.6
Confidence: 1.0
Articles Analyzed: 51
Last Updated: 2025-11-26 23:49:51

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

-0.6

Top News Topics

Supply (1 articles)

Demand (1 articles)

Geopolitical (9 articles)

Economic Analysis

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact: Stable/lower rates may support demand
Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.47
Daily: -0.19 (-0.19%)
Weekly: -0.69 (-0.69%)

US_10Y

4.0
Daily: -0.0 (-0.1%)
Weekly: -0.11 (-2.63%)

SP500

6812.61
Daily: 46.73 (0.69%)
Weekly: 273.85 (4.19%)

VIX

17.19
Daily: -1.37 (-7.38%)
Weekly: -9.23 (-34.94%)

GOLD

4186.6
Daily: 94.7 (2.31%)
Weekly: 108.9 (2.67%)

COPPER

5.19
Daily: 0.22 (4.5%)
Weekly: 0.18 (3.54%)

Fibonacci Analysis

Current Price: $58.35
Closest Support: $56.35 3.43% below current price
Closest Resistance: $58.73 0.65% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35 Support
0.236 $58.73 Resistance
0.382 $60.2
0.5 $61.38
0.618 $62.57
0.786 $64.27
1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16
1.618 $72.64
2.0 $76.49
2.618 $82.71

ML Price Prediction

Current Price: $58.84
Forecast Generated: 2025-11-26 23:49:54
Next Trading Day: DOWN 0.01%
Date Prediction Lower Bound Upper Bound
2025-11-25 $58.84 $56.84 $60.84
2025-11-26 $58.96 $56.96 $60.97
2025-11-27 $59.08 $57.08 $61.08
2025-11-28 $59.09 $57.09 $61.09
2025-11-29 $59.05 $57.05 $61.05

ML Insights

  • Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
  • The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $58.84.
  • The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
  • The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
  • SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.

AI Analysis

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market, reflected by a $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket, indicates potential price pressure. The support levels are likely to be tested around $60.00 for WTI and $63.00 for Brent, while resistance may form near $65.00. The Brent-WTI spread averaging $3.88 suggests a narrowing market, indicating regional supply-demand dynamics may be shifting. Traders should be cautious of increased volatility due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and bearish positioning from managed money traders, which could amplify price movements in the short term.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The decline in crude prices and the bearish market sentiment necessitate a reevaluation of hedging strategies. With crude inventories rising and the 43.02 mb/d average production from OPEC, producers should consider optimizing production levels to avoid oversupply. The impact of inventory levels on price stability should be closely monitored, especially given the 1.0 mb increase in OECD crude stocks. Furthermore, the anticipated growth in non-DoC liquids production could further pressure prices, necessitating strategic adjustments in production planning.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

With crude prices trending downwards, consumers can expect potential input cost fluctuations that may benefit procurement strategies. However, the supply reliability risks remain elevated due to geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels. The recent 4.2 mb/d of US crude exports signifies a robust supply, but consumers should be wary of the bearish sentiment affecting future pricing. Strategic procurement planning is advised to mitigate risks associated with potential price rebounds and supply disruptions.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market currently exhibits a complex interplay of bearish fundamentals, driven by declining prices, rising inventories, and a cautious market sentiment reflected in the -0.600 sentiment score. The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the balance of supply and demand indicate a potential shift in market dynamics. The bearish positioning of managed money traders suggests that price corrections may be imminent, and analysts should closely monitor the evolving situation for possible ML forecast shifts that could impact future market outlooks.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

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