Crude Oil Radar

Published: 12/01/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64.

Updated: 2025-12-01 23:46:42 Length: 507 chars

Crude Oil is flirting with $60 again, hinting at a bullish cycle over the last five trading sessions. However, zooming out reveals a downward trend over the past year, primarily due to soft fundamentals, despite China’s SPR buildup. OPEC+ is on pause for Q1, and while US diesel and mogas stocks are a bullish surprise, geopolitical tensions loom large. Watch the $57.35 level; a break could plunge prices into the 40s. Caution: while recent price action seems optimistic, fundamental support remains shaky.

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -3/5

Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.2 $0.07

WTI: $58.55 $0.1

Spread: $4.65 (Brent premium of $4.65)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: -18,766

Weekly Change: 1,285

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $59.41

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.37

MA(20): $59.82

Current Price is 59.41, 9 day MA 59.37, 20 day MA 59.82

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.4175

Signal: -0.3833

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 47.7

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 47.7 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 5,331

Avg (20d): 232,246

Ratio: 0.02

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 52.05

%D: 35.64

Stochastic %K: 52.05, %D: 35.64. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.83

+DI: 17.61

-DI: 20.98

ADX: 13.83 (+DI: 17.61, -DI: 20.98). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -47.95

Williams %R: -47.95 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 61.55

Middle: 59.82

Lower: 58.09

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 61.55, Middle: 59.82, Lower: 58.09

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13814.0	13834.0	13201.0	12931.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6436.0	5950.0	7684.0	5984.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3598.0	4158.0	4378.0	4788.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16443.0	16232.0	16228.0	16318.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2838.0	1792.0	3306.0	1195.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	426929.0	424155.0	430292.0	432398.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1682173.0	1680113.0	1633001.0	1618476.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	209904.0	207391.0	208927.0	214731.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	112227.0	111080.0	114301.0	112714.33

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.2, change $+0.07. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.55, change $-0.1. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $4.65 (Brent premium of $4.65). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.2

0.07

(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$58.55

0.1

(JAN 26)

Brent-WTI Spread

$4.65

Brent premium of $4.65

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down by $5.19/b month-on-month. Despite this price drop, global oil demand is projected to grow steadily, particularly in non-OECD regions, while production from non-DoC countries continues to rise, indicating a complex supply-demand landscape.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	2025 (mb/d)
World Production	Americas: 25.34 Europe: 13.51 Asia Pacific: 7.12 Total OECD: 45.97 China: 16.86 India: 5.66 Other Asia: 9.78 Latin America: 6.89 Middle East: 8.96 Africa: 4.83 Russia: 4.04 Other Eurasia: 1.31 Other Europe: 0.83 Total Non-OECD: 59.17
World Demand	Americas Demand: 25.34 Europe Demand: 13.51 Asia Pacific Demand: 7.12 Total OECD Demand: 45.97 China Demand: 16.86 India Demand: 5.66 Other Asia Demand: 9.78 Latin America Demand: 6.89 Middle East Demand: 8.96 Africa Demand: 4.83 Russia Demand: 4.04 Other Eurasia Demand: 1.31 Other Europe Demand: 0.83 Total Non-OECD Demand: 59.17 Total World Demand: 105.14
Non-DoC Production	US Non-DoC Production: 22.17 Canada Non-DoC Production: 6.06 Chile Non-DoC Production: 0.01 OECD Americas Non-DoC Production: 28.24 Norway Non-DoC Production: 2.03 UK Non-DoC Production: 0.73 Denmark Non-DoC Production: 0.07 Other OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 0.76 OECD Europe Non-DoC Production: 3.59 Australia Non-DoC Production: 0.35 China Non-DoC Production: 4.62 India Non-DoC Production: 0.82 Indonesia Non-DoC Production: 0.85 Thailand Non-DoC Production: 0.39 Vietnam Non-DoC Production: 0.18 Brazil Non-DoC Production: 4.39 Latin America Non-DoC Production: 7.54
DoC Production	DoC NGLs: 8.63 Crude Oil Production (DoC): 43.02 (decreased by 0.073 mb/d in October)

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The balance of supply and demand indicates a slight surplus in the market, with total world production at approximately 105.14 mb/d against a demand of 105.14 mb/d. This equilibrium suggests that while the market is stable, any fluctuations in production or demand could lead to significant price volatility, particularly in light of the bearish sentiment from hedge funds and money managers.

Production Landscape:

The production landscape is characterized by robust output from the Americas, particularly the US, which contributes significantly to Non-DoC production. The total Non-DoC production is projected to reach 51.57 mb/d in 2025, with notable contributions from Brazil and Canada. In contrast, DoC production has seen a slight decline, indicating potential challenges for OPEC in maintaining its market share.

Demand Patterns:

Demand is expected to grow primarily in non-OECD regions, with a forecast increase of 1.2 mb/d in 2025. China and India remain key drivers of this growth, with their respective demands at 16.86 mb/d and 5.66 mb/d. However, challenges persist in OECD regions, where growth is stagnating, reflecting a shift in consumption patterns towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is on an upward trend, projected to reach 51.57 mb/d, while DoC production is experiencing a decline, averaging 43.02 mb/d. This disparity highlights the increasing influence of Non-DoC producers on the global oil market, challenging OPEC's traditional dominance and necessitating strategic adjustments to maintain market stability.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position is under pressure due to declining prices and increasing competition from Non-DoC producers. The organization may need to consider adjusting production levels or implementing new strategies to stabilize prices and ensure long-term market

Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-10-14

Managed Money

-18,766

Change: -1,285

-0.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

295,445

Change: +1,161

14.3% of OI

Swap Dealers

-376,825

Change: +15,515

-18.2% of OI

Open Interest

2,066,590

Change: 30,516

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-14

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 2,066,590 contracts (+30,516)

Managed Money Net Position: -18,766 contracts (-0.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -1,285 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 295,445 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -376,825 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH

Average Polarity: 0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 32

Last Updated: 2025-12-01 23:49:54

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.4

Daily: -0.06 (-0.06%)

Weekly: -0.74 (-0.74%)

US_10Y

4.1

Daily: 0.08 (1.97%)

Weekly: 0.06 (1.44%)

SP500

6812.63

Daily: -36.46 (-0.53%)

Weekly: 107.51 (1.6%)

VIX

17.24

Daily: 0.89 (5.44%)

Weekly: -3.28 (-15.98%)

GOLD

4247.0

Daily: 155.1 (3.79%)

Weekly: 169.3 (4.15%)

COPPER

5.15

Daily: 0.19 (3.79%)

Weekly: 0.14 (2.84%)

Current Price: $59.41

Closest Support: $58.73 1.14% below current price

Closest Resistance: $60.2 1.33% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73 Support

0.382 $60.2 Resistance

0.5 $61.38

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $58.84

Forecast Generated: 2025-12-01 23:49:56

Next Trading Day: UP 0.01%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-25	$58.85	$56.85	$60.85
2025-11-26	$58.97	$56.97	$60.97
2025-11-27	$59.08	$57.08	$61.09
2025-11-28	$59.08	$57.08	$61.09
2025-11-29	$59.04	$57.04	$61.05

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $58.85.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is reflected by the decline in the OPEC Reference Basket value, which dropped by $5.19 to average $65.20/b. The Brent-WTI spread of $3.88/b indicates neutral market dynamics, suggesting that traders should watch for potential volatility in the near term.

The Fibonacci retracement levels may provide insights into potential price support and resistance levels, particularly as the market has shown signs of backwardation, indicating healthy physical market fundamentals. Traders should be cautious of the bearish positioning among managed money traders, which could lead to further downward pressure.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The balance of supply and demand suggests that production planning should consider the forecasted growth in non-DoC liquids production, particularly from the US, Brazil, Canada, and Argentina. With $43.02 mb/d being the average production from OPEC countries, producers may need to adjust their output strategies accordingly.

The hedging strategies should be reassessed in light of the current market sentiment, which remains bearish among speculators. Additionally, monitoring inventory levels is crucial, as OECD commercial stocks are currently 37.7 mb above last year's levels, which may impact pricing and demand.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should brace for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI prices averaging $60.07/b and Brent at $63.95/b. The supply reliability risks stemming from geopolitical tensions and inventory levels should also be considered when planning procurement strategies.

With US crude exports reaching an eight-month high, consumers may find opportunities to secure lower prices through strategic procurement. However, the current sentiment indicates caution as demand forecasts remain stable but may be influenced by external factors such as geopolitical developments.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently experiencing a bearish trend, driven by a combination of technical indicators, fundamental supply/demand dynamics, and market sentiment. The fundamentals indicate stable global economic growth, yet the bearish positioning among managed money traders suggests potential downward pressure on prices.

Key drivers include the ongoing geopolitical risks affecting supply, reflected in the $4.65 Brent-WTI spread, and the ML price predictions indicating further volatility. Analysts should closely monitor these factors for any shifts that could alter the current outlook.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.