Crude Oil Radar

Published: 12/02/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64.

Updated: 2025-12-02 23:46:47 Length: 557 chars

Crude Oil is flirting with the $60 mark, exhibiting a short-term bullish trend, albeit against a 12-month bearish backdrop. While China's strategic reserves and U.S. diesel stocks provide a glimmer of bullishness, OPEC+ remains inactive amidst softer fundamentals, fostering a cautious outlook. Geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Russia-Ukraine situation, are weighing on prices, hinting that a breach below $57.35 could send them tumbling into the 40s. Keep an eye on geopolitical developments and inventory reports for potential market shifts!

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -3/5

Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $63.23 $0.03

WTI: $59.32 $0.77

Spread: $3.91 (Brent premium of $3.91)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: -38,154

Weekly Change: 19,388

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $58.66

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.29

MA(20): $59.78

Current Price is 58.66, 9 day MA 59.29, 20 day MA 59.78

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.4773

Signal: -0.3953

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 43.94

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 43.94 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 8,351

Avg (20d): 232,397

Ratio: 0.04

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 32.82

%D: 29.23

Stochastic %K: 32.82, %D: 29.23. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 14.44

+DI: 15.05

-DI: 21.33

ADX: 14.44 (+DI: 15.05, -DI: 21.33). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -67.18

Williams %R: -67.18 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 61.58

Middle: 59.78

Lower: 57.99

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 61.58, Middle: 59.78, Lower: 57.99

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13814.0	13834.0	13201.0	12931.0
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	6436.0	5950.0	7684.0	5984.33
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3598.0	4158.0	4378.0	4788.67
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16443.0	16232.0	16228.0	16318.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2838.0	1792.0	3306.0	1195.67
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	426929.0	424155.0	430292.0	432398.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1682173.0	1680113.0	1633001.0	1618476.67
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	209904.0	207391.0	208927.0	214731.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	112227.0	111080.0	114301.0	112714.33

International Price Summary

Brent crude (JAN 26) settled at $63.23, change $+0.03. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $59.32, change $+0.77. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.91 (Brent premium of $3.91). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$63.23

0.03

(JAN 26)

WTI Crude

$59.32

0.77

(JAN 26)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.91

Brent premium of $3.91

OPEC Market Analysis

Executive Summary:

The current OPEC market situation reflects a decline in crude oil prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down by $5.19/b month-on-month. Despite a slight decrease in production from DoC countries, global oil demand remains stable with projections indicating continued growth, particularly in non-OECD regions.

Key Market Metrics:

Category	Value (mb/d)
World Production (Total)	105.13656911438964
World Demand (Total)	105.13656911438964
Non-DoC Production	51.574428
DoC Production	43.02

Supply-Demand Balance Analysis:

The balance of supply and demand indicates that total world production matches total demand at approximately 105.14 mb/d. However, the DoC production of 43.02 mb/d suggests a potential surplus when compared to the revised demand for DoC crude at 42.4 mb/d for 2025, indicating a slight oversupply situation.

Production Landscape:

Production by region shows that the Americas lead with 25.34 mb/d, followed by Europe at 13.51 mb/d and Asia Pacific at 7.12 mb/d. Notably, the US Non-DoC production is a significant contributor at 22.17 mb/d, highlighting its role as a major player in the global oil market.

Demand Patterns:

Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India, driving this growth. The OECD regions are expected to see minimal growth, indicating a shift in demand dynamics towards emerging markets.

Non-DoC vs DoC Analysis:

Non-DoC production is forecasted at 51.57 mb/d, significantly higher than the DoC production of 43.02 mb/d. This disparity emphasizes the increasing influence of non-OPEC producers in the global oil supply landscape, particularly from the US, Brazil, and Canada.

OPEC's Strategic Position:

OPEC's current market position appears cautious, with a slight reduction in DoC production amid stable demand forecasts. The organization may consider adjusting production levels to maintain price stability and counteract the oversupply from Non-DoC producers.

Forward-Looking Indicators:

Looking ahead, the market is likely to experience continued volatility with potential price adjustments as OPEC navigates the balance between production cuts and maintaining market share against rising Non-DoC output. Demand growth in non-OECD regions will be crucial for sustaining oil prices.

Key Insights and Recommendations:

Monitor the production levels of Non-DoC countries, particularly the US, as they significantly influence global supply.
OPEC should consider strategic production adjustments to address potential oversupply and stabilize prices.
Focus on emerging markets, especially in Asia, as key growth areas for future demand.
Stay vigilant regarding geopolitical developments that could impact oil flows and market dynamics.
Evaluate refining margins and product demand trends to optimize production strategies.

Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-10-21

Managed Money

-38,154

Change: -19,388

-1.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

309,536

Change: +14,091

15.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-364,592

Change: +12,233

-18.3% of OI

Open Interest

1,997,649

Change: -68,941

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-21

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,997,649 contracts (-68,941)

Managed Money Net Position: -38,154 contracts (-1.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -19,388 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 309,536 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -364,592 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH

Average Polarity: 0.6

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 36

Last Updated: 2025-12-02 23:49:50

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.6

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

99.22

Daily: -0.19 (-0.19%)

Weekly: -0.44 (-0.44%)

US_10Y

4.09

Daily: -0.01 (-0.24%)

Weekly: 0.08 (2.1%)

SP500

6829.37

Daily: 16.74 (0.25%)

Weekly: 63.49 (0.94%)

VIX

16.59

Daily: -0.65 (-3.77%)

Weekly: -1.97 (-10.61%)

GOLD

4253.8

Daily: 161.9 (3.96%)

Weekly: 176.1 (4.32%)

COPPER

5.29

Daily: 0.33 (6.62%)

Weekly: 0.28 (5.64%)

Current Price: $58.66

Closest Support: $56.35 3.94% below current price

Closest Resistance: $58.73 0.12% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35 Support

0.236 $58.73 Resistance

0.382 $60.2

0.5 $61.38

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $58.84

Forecast Generated: 2025-12-02 23:49:52

Next Trading Day: UP 0.01%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-25	$58.85	$56.85	$60.85
2025-11-26	$58.97	$56.97	$60.97
2025-11-27	$59.08	$57.08	$61.09
2025-11-28	$59.08	$57.08	$61.09
2025-11-29	$59.04	$57.04	$61.05

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.01% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $58.85.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

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For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics indicate a bearish sentiment, as evidenced by a decline in the OPEC Reference Basket price to an average of $65.20/b. The Brent-WTI spread is currently at $3.91, suggesting potential volatility due to differing supply/demand dynamics. Traders should monitor the resistance levels around $63.95/b for Brent and $60.07/b for WTI, as these may act as psychological barriers. The bearish positioning of managed money, with a net position of -38,154 contracts, indicates that traders should remain cautious about potential downward price movements and consider short-term opportunities arising from price corrections.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

The recent decline in crude prices poses challenges for production planning, particularly with the balance of supply and demand shifting. The decrease in inventories, with OECD commercial stocks rising by 6.0 mb, indicates a need for careful hedging strategies to mitigate financial risks. Producers should also consider the implications of a bearish market sentiment, which could affect their operational decisions and pricing strategies. Monitoring the impact of geopolitical risks on supply reliability will be crucial for maintaining production levels and optimizing revenue.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

As crude prices fluctuate, consumers should brace for potential input cost changes, particularly with WTI averaging $60.07/b and Brent at $63.95/b. The geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels could pose supply reliability risks, making it essential for consumers to assess their procurement strategies. The recent improvement in refining margins, particularly for middle distillates, suggests that consumers in refining sectors may find opportunities for cost-effective procurement, but they should remain vigilant about potential price spikes driven by external factors.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by a bearish sentiment, driven by declining prices and a weakening market structure across major benchmarks. The fundamental balance is influenced by stable global economic growth projections and a modest increase in oil demand. Analysts should focus on the bearish positioning of managed money and the implications of geopolitical factors on supply chains. The mixed sentiment from news articles, with a bullish overall market sentiment score of +0.600, suggests potential volatility and opportunities for market shifts that could reshape the outlook in the coming months.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.