Crude Oil Radar

Published: 12/04/2025 Focus: Crude Oil

Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64.

Updated: 2025-12-04 13:06:34 Length: 526 chars

Crude Oil is flirting with the $60 mark, creating a bullish vibe in the short term. However, a broader 12-month perspective reveals a downward trend, with fundamentals showing mixed signals. China’s SPR imports are inflating demand figures while OPEC+ opts for a cautious Q1. U.S. diesel and mogas stocks are bright spots, but a break below $57.35 could drop prices into the 40s. Geopolitical tensions abound, with a U.S. strike on Venezuela as a potential game-changer, though a surge above $61.64 seems unlikely. Stay tuned!

Technical Outlook

Moderately Bearish

Score: -3/5

Short: SELL | Medium: SELL | Long: SELL

International Prices

Brent: $62.67 $0.22

WTI: $58.95 $0.31

Spread: $3.72 (Brent premium of $3.72)

Key Fundamentals

Crude Stocks: N/A (0)

Net Imports: N/A (0)

News Sentiment

BULLISH

Spec Positioning

Net Position: -38,154

Weekly Change: 19,388

Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5): -3 (Moderately Bearish)

Current Price: $59.78

Signal: Moderately Bearish

Moving Averages (9/20)

BEARISH

MA(9): $59.41

MA(20): $59.84

Current Price is 59.78, 9 day MA 59.41, 20 day MA 59.84

MACD (12, 26, 9)

BEARISH

MACD: -0.388

Signal: -0.3774

Days since crossover: 3

MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bearish setup

RSI (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: 49.47

Category: NEUTRAL

RSI is 49.47 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)

Volume (vs 20d Avg)

LOWER

Current: 179,678

Avg (20d): 240,964

Ratio: 0.75

Volume is lower versus 20 day average

Stochastic (14, 3)

BULLISH CROSS

%K: 61.54

%D: 38.8

Stochastic %K: 61.54, %D: 38.8. Signal: bullish cross

ADX (14)

NO TREND

ADX: 13.52

+DI: 18.89

-DI: 20.62

ADX: 13.52 (+DI: 18.89, -DI: 20.62). Trend: no trend

Williams %R (14)

NEUTRAL

Value: -38.46

Williams %R: -38.46 (neutral zone)

Bollinger Bands (20, 2)

BELOW MIDDLE

Upper: 61.56

Middle: 59.84

Lower: 58.12

Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 61.56, Middle: 59.84, Lower: 58.12

Category	Current	Last Week	Last Year	3 Yr Avg
Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day)	13815.0	13814.0	13493.0	12937.67
Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	5981.0	6436.0	6083.0	6936.67
Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	3613.0	3598.0	4663.0	4001.33
Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day)	16876.0	16443.0	16295.0	16565.33
Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day)	2368.0	2838.0	1420.0	2935.33
Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	427503.0	426929.0	428448.0	427434.67
Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	1687647.0	1682173.0	1632376.0	1618186.33
Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	214422.0	209904.0	212241.0	219098.0
Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels)	114286.0	112227.0	114717.0	116317.33

International Price Summary

Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $62.67, change $+0.22. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.95, change $+0.31. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.72 (Brent premium of $3.72). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.

Brent Crude

$62.67

0.22

(FEB 26)

WTI Crude

$58.95

0.31

(JAN 26)

Brent-WTI Spread

$3.72

Brent premium of $3.72

OPEC Market Analysis

Market At a Glance

The global oil market is currently experiencing a dynamic shift with demand pressures intensifying. OPEC's strategic positioning is crucial as supply constraints and geopolitical factors influence pricing. The balance between supply and demand remains delicate, necessitating careful monitoring of market trends.

Today's Critical Numbers

World Demand: 100.45 mb/d
OECD Demand: 48.20 mb/d
Non-OECD Demand: 52.25 mb/d
China Demand: 15.50 mb/d
India Demand: 5.00 mb/d
Growth Rate: World Demand +1.5%
Growth Rate: OECD Demand +0.8%
Growth Rate: Non-OECD Demand +2.0%
Growth Rate: China Demand +3.0%
Growth Rate: India Demand +4.5%

Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis

The current supply-demand gap stands at 2.10 mb/d, indicating a tightening market. The primary drivers of this deficit are the Non-OECD regions, particularly Asia, where demand is outpacing supply. This situation compels OPEC to consider adjustments in production levels to stabilize the market and meet growing demand.

Regional Powerhouses

China's demand trajectory shows robust growth, with an increase of +3.0% expected in the coming months, driven by industrial activity and transportation needs.
India's growth story is even more pronounced, with demand projected to rise by +4.5%, reflecting its expanding economy and energy needs.
The Americas demonstrate resilience, maintaining steady demand levels despite economic fluctuations.
Europe faces challenges with stagnant demand growth, impacted by economic uncertainties and energy transition policies.

What's Next

The outlook for 2025-2026 suggests continued demand growth, particularly in Asia, with potential increases in global consumption reaching 103.00 mb/d.
Risks include geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains and economic slowdowns in key markets.
Market-moving factors to watch include OPEC's production decisions, global economic recovery trends, and shifts in energy policies.

Key Takeaways

Most surprising data point: India's demand growth of +4.5%, outpacing all major economies.
Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions that could impact supply stability.
Opportunity area: Increased investment in renewable energy sources alongside traditional oil markets.
Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider flexible production strategies to adapt to changing demand dynamics.

Sentiment: Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning: Normal Range

Report Date: 2025-10-21

Managed Money

-38,154

Change: -19,388

-1.9% of OI

Producer/Merchant

309,536

Change: +14,091

15.5% of OI

Swap Dealers

-364,592

Change: +12,233

-18.3% of OI

Open Interest

1,997,649

Change: -68,941

Summary Analysis:

CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-21

Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):

Open Interest: 1,997,649 contracts (-68,941)

Managed Money Net Position: -38,154 contracts (-1.9% of OI)

Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -19,388 contracts

Producer/Merchant Net Position: 309,536 contracts

Swap Dealer Net Position: -364,592 contracts

Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening

Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range

Key Takeaways:

- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.

- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.

- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.

- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.

- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.

About Disaggregated CoT Reports:

The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.

It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.

Market Sentiment Overview

BULLISH

Average Polarity: 0.7

Confidence: 1.0

Articles Analyzed: 57

Last Updated: 2025-12-04 13:13:01

Commodity Sentiment

CRUDE_OIL

0.7

Economic Sentiment Summary

POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive

Dollar Impact: Weaker USD may support commodity prices

Industrial Demand: Strong industrial demand signals

Interest Rate Impact: Rising rates may impact energy demand

Risk Sentiment: Low market volatility/risk appetite

Economic Indicators

USD_INDEX

98.96

Daily: 0.11 (0.11%)

Weekly: -0.5 (-0.5%)

US_10Y

4.1

Daily: 0.04 (1.06%)

Weekly: 0.08 (2.07%)

SP500

6849.79

Daily: 0.07 (0.0%)

Weekly: 0.7 (0.01%)

VIX

16.03

Daily: -0.05 (-0.31%)

Weekly: -0.32 (-1.96%)

GOLD

4246.4

Daily: 154.5 (3.78%)

Weekly: 168.7 (4.14%)

COPPER

5.37

Daily: 0.41 (8.21%)

Weekly: 0.36 (7.22%)

Current Price: $59.78

Closest Support: $58.73 1.76% below current price

Closest Resistance: $60.2 0.7% above current price

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

0.0 $56.35

0.236 $58.73 Support

0.382 $60.2 Resistance

0.5 $61.38

0.618 $62.57

0.786 $64.27

1.0 $66.42

Fibonacci Extension Levels

1.272 $69.16

1.618 $72.64

2.0 $76.49

2.618 $82.71

Current Price: $58.84

Forecast Generated: 2025-12-04 13:13:03

Next Trading Day: UP 0.02%

Date	Prediction	Lower Bound	Upper Bound
2025-11-25	$58.85	$56.85	$60.85
2025-11-26	$58.99	$56.99	$60.99
2025-11-27	$59.11	$57.11	$61.11
2025-11-28	$59.11	$57.11	$61.11
2025-11-29	$59.07	$57.07	$61.07

ML Insights

Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
The model predicts a price increase of ~0.02% for the next trading day (2025-11-25), reaching $58.85.
The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-11-25 and 2025-11-29.
The average confidence interval width is ~6.8% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.

💹

For Energy Traders:

Current market dynamics suggest potential bullish momentum, as indicated by the overall market sentiment score of +0.700. The Brent crude price is at $62.67 and WTI at $58.95, with a $3.72 Brent-WTI spread, reflecting supply/demand dynamics.

Traders should monitor the support levels around $58.00 for WTI and $62.00 for Brent, as these could provide opportunities for short-term trades. The negative sentiment in demand and geopolitical factors could introduce volatility, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate.

⛽

For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):

Producers should consider the current market sentiment, which is bullish overall, but with mixed signals from demand and geopolitical factors contributing to uncertainties. The CFTC data indicates that managed money positions are shifting towards bearish, which may influence pricing strategies.

Hedging strategies should be adjusted accordingly, especially with the potential for inventory fluctuations. Producers might want to maintain flexibility in production planning to respond to market shifts as geopolitical tensions could impact supply reliability.

🏭

For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):

Consumers should prepare for potential input cost fluctuations as WTI and Brent prices remain elevated, with current prices at $58.95 and $62.67, respectively. The geopolitical risks highlighted in the news sentiment could impact supply reliability, necessitating contingency plans.

Consideration for procurement strategies is essential, particularly in light of the bearish sentiments surrounding demand. It may be prudent to explore hedging options to mitigate the risks associated with price volatility.

📊

For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):

The Crude Oil market presents a mixed picture, with bullish overall sentiment driven by geopolitical tensions, but tempered by bearish indicators in demand. The Brent-WTI spread of $3.72 reflects ongoing disparities in supply/demand dynamics.

Key driving factors include the recent geopolitical developments that are likely to impact supply chains, alongside the positioning data from CFTC indicating a bearish trend among managed money. Analysts should watch for potential shifts in sentiment and positioning that could signal a change in market direction.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.