Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-07 00:06
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is hovering around $60, reflecting a recent bullish cycle over the past week, yet a 12-month glance reveals a downward trend. Fundamentals show mixed signals, influenced by China's ongoing SPR imports and OPEC+'s decision to refrain from action, citing soft fundamentals. US diesel and gasoline stocks present a surprising bullish note. Watch for key levels: a break below $57.35 could plunge prices into the 40s, while geopolitical tensions may offer temporary support. Keep your helmets on, volatility ahead!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Neutral
Score:
-1/5
Short: BUY
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$63.75
$0.49
WTI:
$60.08
$0.41
Spread:
$3.67
(Brent premium of $3.67)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-8,600
Weekly Change:
29,554
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-1
(Neutral)
Current Price:
$60.08
Signal:
Neutral
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $58.96
MA(20): $59.31
Current Price is 60.08, 9 day MA 58.96, 20 day MA 59.31
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.2529
Signal: -0.4016
Days since crossover: 3
MACD crossed the line 3 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 53.14
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 53.14 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 226,964
Avg (20d): 244,872
Ratio: 0.93
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 77.81
%D: 64.4
Stochastic %K: 77.81, %D: 64.4. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.65
+DI: 17.58
-DI: 16.2
ADX: 11.65 (+DI: 17.58, -DI: 16.2). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -22.19
Williams %R: -22.19 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
ABOVE MIDDLE
Upper: 60.98
Middle: 59.31
Lower: 57.64
Price vs BBands (20, 2): above middle. Upper: 60.98, Middle: 59.31, Lower: 57.64
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13815.0 | 13814.0 | 13493.0 | 12937.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5981.0 | 6436.0 | 6083.0 | 6936.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3613.0 | 3598.0 | 4663.0 | 4001.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16876.0 | 16443.0 | 16295.0 | 16565.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2368.0 | 2838.0 | 1420.0 | 2935.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 427503.0 | 426929.0 | 428448.0 | 427434.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687647.0 | 1682173.0 | 1632376.0 | 1618186.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214422.0 | 209904.0 | 212241.0 | 219098.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114286.0 | 112227.0 | 114717.0 | 116317.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $63.75, change $+0.49. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $60.08, change $+0.41. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.67 (Brent premium of $3.67). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$63.75
0.49
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$60.08
0.41
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.67
Brent premium of $3.67
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The global oil market is experiencing a modest demand growth forecast of 1.3 mb/d for 2025, with non-OECD countries leading the charge. Supply from non-DoC countries is set to grow by 0.9 mb/d, while OPEC's production decisions will be crucial in navigating the emerging supply-demand gap. The overall economic growth remains stable, with forecasts of 3.0% for 2025 and 3.1% for 2026, supporting oil demand resilience.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025, +1.4% growth
- OECD oil demand: 0.1 mb/d growth, +0.1% growth
- Non-OECD oil demand: 1.2 mb/d growth, +1.2% growth
- China's oil demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's oil demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size: 42.4 mb/d for 2025
- Regions driving the deficit: Non-DoC liquids production at 54.1 mb/d
- Implications for OPEC: The need to adjust production strategies to address the supply-demand imbalance
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory is expected to remain robust, with a forecast growth of 4.8% for 2025.
- India's growth story continues, with a projected increase of 6.5% in oil demand for 2025.
- The Americas show resilience with stable production and exports, particularly from the US.
- Europe faces challenges with stagnant demand and reliance on imports, impacting overall market dynamics.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand growth forecast remains steady at 1.3 mb/d for 2025 and 1.4 mb/d for 2026.
- Risks include geopolitical tensions and potential supply chain disruptions affecting production.
- Opportunities lie in increasing demand from emerging markets, particularly in Asia.
- Market-moving factors to watch: OPEC's production decisions and global economic performance.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: Non-DoC liquids production growth forecast revised up by 0.1 mb/d.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions impacting oil supply and prices.
- Opportunity area: Increasing oil demand in Asia, particularly from China and India.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to better align with demand forecasts.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-10-28
Managed Money
-8,600
Change: +29,554
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
297,846
Change: -11,690
15.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-375,563
Change: -10,971
-19.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,891,657
Change: -105,992
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-28
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,891,657 contracts (-105,992)
Managed Money Net Position: -8,600 contracts (-0.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +29,554 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,846 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -375,563 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.75
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
41
Last Updated:
2025-12-07 00:05:56
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.75
Top News Topics
Supply (2 articles)
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (10 articles)
- Crude Prices Supported by Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Optimism Barchart
- Crude Oil Rallies on Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Demand Optimism Barchart
- Geopolitical Tensions Underpin Crude Oil Prices Barchart
- Crude Oil Prices Find Support from a Weaker Dollar and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil prices firm after Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil infrastructure, stalled peace talks Reuters
- Crude Oil Prices Gain on Dollar Weakness and Geopolitical Risks Barchart
- Oil Rises Amid Russia-Ukraine Peace Uncertainty, Mounting Venezuela Tension — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Prices Rise Amid Lingering Geopolitical Tension — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Gains on Market Concerns Over Russia-Ukraine Progress — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Rises With Focus on Russia-Ukraine Negotiations — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.99
Daily:
-0.0 (-0.0%)
Weekly:
-0.42 (-0.43%)
US_10Y
4.14
Daily:
0.03 (0.75%)
Weekly:
0.04 (1.05%)
SP500
6870.4
Daily:
13.28 (0.19%)
Weekly:
57.77 (0.85%)
VIX
15.41
Daily:
-0.37 (-2.34%)
Weekly:
-1.83 (-10.61%)
GOLD
4212.9
Daily:
1.1 (0.03%)
Weekly:
-26.4 (-0.62%)
COPPER
5.38
Daily:
0.09 (1.71%)
Weekly:
0.16 (3.12%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$60.08
Closest Support:
$58.73
2.25% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$60.2
0.2% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
0.236
$58.73
Support
0.382
$60.2
Resistance
0.5
$61.38
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$60.08
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-07 00:05:59
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.1%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | $60.14 | $58.49 | $61.79 |
| 2025-12-07 | $60.17 | $58.52 | $61.83 |
| 2025-12-08 | $60.09 | $58.44 | $61.74 |
| 2025-12-09 | $60.01 | $58.36 | $61.66 |
| 2025-12-10 | $59.98 | $58.33 | $61.63 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.10% for the next trading day (2025-12-06), reaching $60.14.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-06 and 2025-12-10.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.5% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market, evidenced by a decline in both $5.19/b for the OPEC Reference Basket and $3.63/b for ICE Brent, suggests potential risks for short-term price stability. The $3.88/b average Brent-WTI spread indicates a narrowing, reflecting shifting supply dynamics.
Traders should monitor the support levels around $60/b for WTI and $63/b for Brent, as these may act as critical points for potential rebounds. Volatility could be expected due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, which have historically influenced price action.
The current positioning of managed money, with a net position of -8,600 contracts, indicates a bearish but weakening outlook, suggesting that traders may find short-term opportunities as sentiment shifts.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decline in crude prices and the balance of supply and demand indicate a need for strategic adjustments in production planning. The $43.02 mb/d average production reported by DoC countries highlights the impact of bearish market sentiment on operational decisions.
Producers should consider implementing hedging strategies to mitigate risks associated with fluctuating prices, especially given the inventory levels that remain below the five-year average.
The improvement in refining margins, particularly in the USGC, offers a silver lining, suggesting that while crude prices are under pressure, refined product profitability may provide some operational relief.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
The recent fluctuations in crude prices, with WTI averaging $60.07/b, indicate potential input cost fluctuations for consumers. The geopolitical landscape remains a concern, as it can impact supply reliability.
Consumers should prepare for procurement strategies that account for possible price spikes, particularly with the ongoing bearish sentiment in demand forecasts for 2025.
The inventory levels reported, particularly the 2,845 mb in OECD commercial stocks, suggest that while supply is currently stable, any unexpected geopolitical events could disrupt this balance and lead to price volatility.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently characterized by bearish sentiment driven by falling prices and a tightening Brent-WTI spread. The balance of supply and demand remains delicate, with global oil demand growth forecasted at 1.3 mb/d for 2025, which may not be sufficient to offset rising non-DoC production.
Analysts should closely monitor the market sentiment shifts, particularly as managed money positioning indicates a potential reversal with net positions improving. The implications of geopolitical tensions and economic forecasts on future demand will also be critical in shaping market outlooks.
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