Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-09 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil is hovering around $60, reflecting a recent bullish cycle, albeit against a backdrop of a declining 12-month trend. Fundamentals remain neutral as China builds its Strategic Petroleum Reserve while OPEC+ opts for inaction due to weak demand signals. Current diesel and mogas stocks shine as a bullish outlier. However, geopolitical tensions and a possible US strike on Venezuela could cap prices around $61.64. Watch for critical levels at $57.35; a breach may lead to a drop into the 40s, highlighting the market's volatility.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$63.75
$0.49
WTI:
$60.08
$0.41
Spread:
$3.67
(Brent premium of $3.67)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BULLISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-8,600
Weekly Change:
29,554
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$58.71
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $58.95
MA(20): $59.25
Current Price is 58.71, 9 day MA 58.95, 20 day MA 59.25
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.2771
Signal: -0.3767
Days since crossover: 4
MACD crossed the line 4 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 45.98
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 45.98 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 7,250
Avg (20d): 233,668
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 42.04
%D: 62.32
Stochastic %K: 42.04, %D: 62.32. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.31
+DI: 16.36
-DI: 18.82
ADX: 11.31 (+DI: 16.36, -DI: 18.82). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -57.96
Williams %R: -57.96 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.93
Middle: 59.25
Lower: 57.58
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.93, Middle: 59.25, Lower: 57.58
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13815.0 | 13814.0 | 13493.0 | 12937.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5981.0 | 6436.0 | 6083.0 | 6936.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3613.0 | 3598.0 | 4663.0 | 4001.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16876.0 | 16443.0 | 16295.0 | 16565.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2368.0 | 2838.0 | 1420.0 | 2935.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 427503.0 | 426929.0 | 428448.0 | 427434.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687647.0 | 1682173.0 | 1632376.0 | 1618186.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214422.0 | 209904.0 | 212241.0 | 219098.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114286.0 | 112227.0 | 114717.0 | 116317.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $63.75, change $+0.49. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $60.08, change $+0.41. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.67 (Brent premium of $3.67). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$63.75
0.49
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$60.08
0.41
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.67
Brent premium of $3.67
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently experiencing a decline in prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket averaging $65.20/b in October, down by $5.19/b month-on-month. Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2025, driven primarily by non-OECD countries, while the supply from non-DoC producers is expected to increase by 0.9 mb/d. This evolving landscape presents both challenges and opportunities for OPEC's production strategies moving forward.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World Demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025
- OECD Demand Growth: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD Demand Growth: +1.2 mb/d
- China's Demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's Demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current Gap Size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions Driving Deficit: Non-DoC liquids production
- Implications for OPEC: The need to adjust production levels to manage the supply-demand balance effectively.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's Demand Trajectory: Expected to grow steadily, contributing significantly to global demand.
- India's Growth Story: Projected to maintain a robust growth rate of 6.5% in 2025, highlighting its increasing consumption.
- Americas' Resilience: The US continues to show strong export capabilities, with crude exports reaching an eight-month high.
- Europe's Challenges: Facing stagnant demand growth and reliance on imports, particularly from the US.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 Outlook: Global oil demand is forecasted to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with non-OECD countries leading the charge.
- Risks and Opportunities: Potential geopolitical tensions and economic fluctuations could impact demand and supply dynamics.
- Market-Moving Factors to Watch: Changes in OPEC production levels and non-DoC supply growth will be critical in shaping market conditions.
Key Takeaways
- Most Surprising Data Point: Non-DoC liquids production is expected to grow by 0.9 mb/d in 2025, indicating strong competition.
- Biggest Risk Factor: Geopolitical tensions could disrupt supply chains and impact global oil prices.
- Opportunity Area: Increased demand from India and China presents a significant opportunity for OPEC to enhance market share.
- Strategic Recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with the evolving demand landscape, particularly in non-OECD regions.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish but Weakening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-10-28
Managed Money
-8,600
Change: +29,554
-0.5% of OI
Producer/Merchant
297,846
Change: -11,690
15.7% of OI
Swap Dealers
-375,563
Change: -10,971
-19.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,891,657
Change: -105,992
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-10-28
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,891,657 contracts (-105,992)
Managed Money Net Position: -8,600 contracts (-0.5% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +29,554 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 297,846 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -375,563 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish but Weakening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BULLISH
Average Polarity:
0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
35
Last Updated:
2025-12-09 00:04:28
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
0.4
Top News Topics
Demand (2 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Crude Prices Supported by Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Optimism Barchart
- Crude Oil Rallies on Geopolitical Tensions and Energy Demand Optimism Barchart
- Oil Higher as Market Watches Russia — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Poised for Weekly Gains on Geopolitical Risks — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.05
Daily:
0.06 (0.06%)
Weekly:
-0.31 (-0.31%)
US_10Y
4.17
Daily:
0.03 (0.8%)
Weekly:
0.09 (2.1%)
SP500
6846.51
Daily:
-23.89 (-0.35%)
Weekly:
17.14 (0.25%)
VIX
16.66
Daily:
1.25 (8.11%)
Weekly:
0.07 (0.42%)
GOLD
4214.9
Daily:
2.0 (0.05%)
Weekly:
28.3 (0.68%)
COPPER
5.41
Daily:
0.03 (0.55%)
Weekly:
0.25 (4.85%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$58.71
Closest Support:
$56.35
4.02% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.73
0.03% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
Support
0.236
$58.73
Resistance
0.382
$60.2
0.5
$61.38
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.7
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-09 00:04:30
Next Trading Day:
UP 0.09%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | $58.75 | $57.08 | $60.43 |
| 2025-12-10 | $58.59 | $56.92 | $60.26 |
| 2025-12-11 | $58.51 | $56.84 | $60.18 |
| 2025-12-12 | $58.61 | $56.94 | $60.29 |
| 2025-12-13 | $58.68 | $57.01 | $60.36 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price increase of ~0.09% for the next trading day (2025-12-09), reaching $58.75.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-09 and 2025-12-13.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bullish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The recent bearish sentiment in the crude oil market is evident with the $5.19 drop in the OPEC Reference Basket and a decline in both Brent and WTI prices. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to an average of $3.88/b, indicating potential shifts in supply dynamics.
With hedge funds maintaining a bearish positioning, traders should watch for potential resistance levels around $65 for Brent and $60 for WTI. The backwardation in forward curves suggests a short-term opportunity if physical demand remains strong, despite overall bearish sentiment.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The current market dynamics, with a balance of supply and demand showing a slight decrease in demand for DoC crude, necessitate a reevaluation of production planning. The $60.07 average for WTI indicates a need for careful hedging strategies as prices remain volatile.
Additionally, the increase in OECD commercial inventories suggests that producers should be cautious of inventory impacts on pricing. The bearish market sentiment could affect cash flows, making it essential to optimize production costs and consider market conditions when making operational decisions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
With crude prices averaging $60.07 for WTI and $63.95 for Brent, consumers should prepare for input cost fluctuations in the near term. The geopolitical tensions and the supply reliability risks highlighted by lower crude imports into the US could impact procurement strategies.
Refineries should also monitor the refining margins which have improved due to lower crude prices, but also consider the potential for supply disruptions stemming from geopolitical factors and inventory levels. Strategic planning for procurement and hedging may mitigate some of these risks.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market is currently influenced by a mix of bearish sentiment and underlying physical market strength. The forecasted global oil demand growth of about 1.3 mb/d in 2025, juxtaposed with rising inventories, suggests potential for market volatility moving forward.
Analysts should focus on the evolving dynamics of the Brent-WTI spread and the positioning of managed money, which remains bearish but is showing signs of weakening. The ML forecasts indicate a potential shift in sentiment, warranting close monitoring of economic indicators and geopolitical developments that could alter the market outlook.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or specific buy/sell recommendations.