Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64.
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-10 00:05
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude Oil is flirting with the $60 mark, showing bullish behavior in the short term, but a longer view reveals a potential downward trend. Despite recent bullish surprises in US diesel and mogas stocks, fundamentals remain mixed, with China’s SPR purchases inflating demand without solid backing. OPEC+ has paused action amid soft fundamentals. Watch for key levels around $57.35; a break could plunge prices into the 40s. Geopolitical tensions, like a potential US strike on Venezuela, add uncertainty, but may not push prices much higher than $61.64.
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$62.49
$1.26
WTI:
$58.88
$1.2
Spread:
$3.61
(Brent premium of $3.61)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
7,737
Weekly Change:
16,337
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$58.31
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $59.01
MA(20): $59.17
Current Price is 58.31, 9 day MA 59.01, 20 day MA 59.17
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.3143
Signal: -0.362
Days since crossover: 5
MACD crossed the line 5 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 44.06
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 44.06 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 6,248
Avg (20d): 235,624
Ratio: 0.03
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BEARISH CROSS
%K: 32.79
%D: 52.36
Stochastic %K: 32.79, %D: 52.36. Signal: bearish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.34
+DI: 15.71
-DI: 19.99
ADX: 11.34 (+DI: 15.71, -DI: 19.99). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -67.21
Williams %R: -67.21 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.84
Middle: 59.17
Lower: 57.51
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.84, Middle: 59.17, Lower: 57.51
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13815.0 | 13814.0 | 13493.0 | 12937.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 5981.0 | 6436.0 | 6083.0 | 6936.67 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 3613.0 | 3598.0 | 4663.0 | 4001.33 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16876.0 | 16443.0 | 16295.0 | 16565.33 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2368.0 | 2838.0 | 1420.0 | 2935.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 427503.0 | 426929.0 | 428448.0 | 427434.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1687647.0 | 1682173.0 | 1632376.0 | 1618186.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 214422.0 | 209904.0 | 212241.0 | 219098.0 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 114286.0 | 112227.0 | 114717.0 | 116317.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $62.49, change $-1.26. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.88, change $-1.2. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.61 (Brent premium of $3.61). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$62.49
1.26
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$58.88
1.2
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.61
Brent premium of $3.61
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by a slight decline in crude prices and a stable demand growth forecast. Global oil demand is projected to increase by approximately 1.3 mb/d in 2025, with non-OECD countries driving the majority of this growth. Meanwhile, the supply-demand balance indicates a tightening gap, prompting OPEC to reassess its production strategies.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World Oil Demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025, with a growth rate of +1.3 mb/d
- OECD Demand: 0.1 mb/d growth in 2025
- Non-OECD Demand: 1.2 mb/d growth in 2025
- China's Demand: 4.8% growth forecast for 2025
- India's Demand: 6.5% growth forecast for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current Gap Size: 42.4 mb/d in 2025
- Regions Driving the Deficit: Primarily non-OECD countries, particularly China and India
- Implications for OPEC: The tightening gap suggests a potential need for OPEC to adjust production levels to maintain market stability and price support.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's Demand Trajectory: Expected to grow significantly, with a forecast of 4.8% in 2025, highlighting its role as a key consumer.
- India's Growth Story: Projected to grow by 6.5% in 2025, indicating a robust demand outlook driven by economic expansion.
- Americas' Resilience: The US continues to show resilience with stable demand despite fluctuations in imports and exports.
- Europe's Challenges: The region faces difficulties with stagnant demand growth, necessitating strategic adjustments in supply chains.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 Outlook: Global oil demand is expected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with continued strength from non-OECD regions.
- Risks and Opportunities: Potential risks include geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns, while opportunities lie in emerging markets.
- Market-Moving Factors to Watch: OPEC's production decisions, global economic indicators, and changes in refining capacities will be critical.
Key Takeaways
- Most Surprising Data Point: Non-OECD demand growth is significantly outpacing OECD growth, with a forecast of +1.2 mb/d.
- Biggest Risk Factor: Geopolitical instability could disrupt supply chains and impact pricing.
- Opportunity Area: Increased demand from India presents a strategic opportunity for OPEC to enhance market share.
- Strategic Recommendation: OPEC should consider adjusting production levels to align with the tightening supply-demand gap while monitoring global economic trends closely.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-11-04
Managed Money
7,737
Change: +16,337
0.4% of OI
Producer/Merchant
277,216
Change: -20,630
14.4% of OI
Swap Dealers
-361,642
Change: +13,921
-18.8% of OI
Open Interest
1,924,327
Change: 32,670
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-11-04
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,924,327 contracts (+32,670)
Managed Money Net Position: 7,737 contracts (0.4% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: +16,337 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 277,216 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -361,642 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bullish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.7
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
38
Last Updated:
2025-12-10 00:04:35
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.7
Top News Topics
Supply (1 articles)
- Crude Oil Extends Downturn on Ample Supply Trading Economics
Demand (1 articles)
Geopolitical (3 articles)
- Oil Falls 1% With Russia-Ukraine in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Soybean Price Support in 2026 Rests on Biofuels Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Steadies With Focus on Geopolitical Risks, Fed Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Strong USD may pressure commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
99.2
Daily:
0.11 (0.12%)
Weekly:
0.35 (0.36%)
US_10Y
4.19
Daily:
0.01 (0.34%)
Weekly:
0.13 (3.18%)
SP500
6840.51
Daily:
-6.0 (-0.09%)
Weekly:
-9.21 (-0.13%)
VIX
16.93
Daily:
0.27 (1.62%)
Weekly:
0.85 (5.29%)
GOLD
4235.4
Daily:
48.2 (1.15%)
Weekly:
36.1 (0.86%)
COPPER
5.37
Daily:
0.0 (0.04%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.1%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$58.31
Closest Support:
$56.35
3.36% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.73
0.72% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
Support
0.236
$58.73
Resistance
0.382
$60.2
0.5
$61.38
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.3
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-10 00:04:37
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.25%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-10 | $58.16 | $56.5 | $59.81 |
| 2025-12-11 | $58.04 | $56.38 | $59.7 |
| 2025-12-12 | $58.13 | $56.47 | $59.79 |
| 2025-12-13 | $58.24 | $56.58 | $59.9 |
| 2025-12-14 | $58.3 | $56.64 | $59.95 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.25% for the next trading day (2025-12-10), reaching $58.16.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-10 and 2025-12-14.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The crude oil market is currently experiencing a bearish sentiment, with the OPEC Reference Basket dropping to an average of $65.20/b. The Brent-WTI spread has narrowed to $3.88/b, indicating neutral supply-demand dynamics. Traders should monitor potential support levels around $60.00/b for WTI and $63.00/b for Brent, while resistance levels could form near $65.00/b for WTI. The market remains in backwardation, suggesting short-term opportunities may arise, but caution is warranted given the bearish positioning of managed money traders, which could lead to increased volatility.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
With a bearish market sentiment and declining crude prices, producers should reassess their production planning and hedging strategies. The current inventory levels indicate a slight increase in OECD commercial stocks, which could indicate oversupply. Producers should consider the implications of supply-demand balance as global oil demand growth remains stable at about 1.3 mb/d for 2025, particularly focusing on non-OECD markets. Additionally, the recent drop in DoC crude production suggests potential for tighter supply in the future, which may require proactive management of hedging positions.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers in the industrial and refining sectors should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs as crude prices are currently on a downtrend. The Brent-WTI spread reflects ongoing supply dynamics, which may impact procurement strategies. With refining margins improving, particularly for middle distillates, consumers may find opportunities for cost savings. However, geopolitical risks and fluctuating inventory levels pose supply reliability risks, necessitating careful monitoring of market conditions and consideration of hedging options for price protection.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The current Crude Oil market presents a bearish outlook driven by a combination of factors: declining prices, stable economic growth forecasts, and a slight increase in OECD inventories. The bearish sentiment is reinforced by managed money positioning, which indicates potential for further downside. However, the backwardation in forward curves suggests healthy physical market fundamentals. Analysts should continue to monitor the balance of supply and demand, particularly focusing on the growth in non-OECD oil demand and the impact of geopolitical events, as these could shift the market outlook significantly.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please conduct your own research before making any investment decisions.