Crude Oil pushing $60 again - if you look in the last 5 trading sessions - you would say we are in a bullish cycle. But if you pull back the lens to 12 months - you would see a trend that points down (potentially way down). Fundamentals are not really bullish but not really bearish either - they are inflated because China is still importing for their SPR (that they are building at the same time). OPEC+ decided to no new action - so that means pause for Q1 - primarily due to soft fundamentals, while expected this time of year are a bit worrisome. US Diesel and Mogas stocks are the lone bullish surprise. 57.35 appears to be calling - but if it breaks we will see a drop into the 40s….there is about as much geopolitical turmoil as possible - and the only headline that could tilt is a US attack on Venezuela - but even then I don’t see that going much above 61.64. Crude is stuck in no mans land - seems to be sideways until a break below 57.35 - seems to WANT some bullish news..
ER
Crude Oil Radar
2025-12-11 00:06
Table of Contents
Brian's Thoughts
Today's Update
Crude oil is flirting with the $60 mark, reflecting a bullish cycle in the short term. However, a 12-month view reveals a downward trend. Fundamentals remain mixed; while U.S. diesel and mogas stocks are a surprise bullish factor, overall demand is soft, and OPEC+ has opted for a pause. Recent geopolitical tensions, like the U.S. seizure of a Venezuelan tanker, have temporarily boosted prices. Watch for a critical support level at $57.35; a break could send prices tumbling into the 40s. Stay alert for any bullish news to shift sentiment!
Market Summary
Technical Outlook
Moderately Bearish
Score:
-2/5
Short: SELL
|
Medium: BUY |
Long: SELL
International Prices
Brent:
$61.94
$0.55
WTI:
$58.25
$0.63
Spread:
$3.69
(Brent premium of $3.69)
Key Fundamentals
Crude Stocks:
N/A
(0)
Net Imports:
N/A
(0)
News Sentiment
BEARISH
Spec Positioning
Net Position:
-11,646
Weekly Change:
19,383
Technical Analysis
Overall Technical Score (-5 to +5):
-2
(Moderately Bearish)
Current Price:
$58.42
Signal:
Moderately Bearish
Moving Averages (9/20)
BEARISH
MA(9): $58.97
MA(20): $59.04
Current Price is 58.42, 9 day MA 58.97, 20 day MA 59.04
MACD (12, 26, 9)
BULLISH
MACD: -0.3454
Signal: -0.3595
Days since crossover: 6
MACD crossed the line 6 days ago and is in a bullish setup
RSI (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: 44.81
Category: NEUTRAL
RSI is 44.81 (note 70% is overbought and 30% is oversold)
Volume (vs 20d Avg)
LOWER
Current: 9,127
Avg (20d): 235,557
Ratio: 0.04
Volume is lower versus 20 day average
Stochastic (14, 3)
BULLISH CROSS
%K: 38.82
%D: 38.82
Stochastic %K: 38.82, %D: 38.82. Signal: bullish cross
ADX (14)
NO TREND
ADX: 11.63
+DI: 14.83
-DI: 19.58
ADX: 11.63 (+DI: 14.83, -DI: 19.58). Trend: no trend
Williams %R (14)
NEUTRAL
Value: -61.18
Williams %R: -61.18 (neutral zone)
Bollinger Bands (20, 2)
BELOW MIDDLE
Upper: 60.5
Middle: 59.04
Lower: 57.58
Price vs BBands (20, 2): below middle. Upper: 60.5, Middle: 59.04, Lower: 57.58
Fundamental Analysis
| Category | Current | Last Week | Last Year | 3 Yr Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crude Production (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 13853.0 | 13815.0 | 13513.0 | 12943.67 |
| Crude Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 6589.0 | 5981.0 | 7290.0 | 6456.0 |
| Crude Exports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 4009.0 | 3613.0 | 4235.0 | 3728.67 |
| Refinery Inputs (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 16860.0 | 16876.0 | 16910.0 | 16294.0 |
| Net Imports (Thousand Barrels a Day) | 2580.0 | 2368.0 | 3055.0 | 2727.33 |
| Commercial Crude Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 425691.0 | 427503.0 | 423375.0 | 428950.67 |
| Crude & Products Total Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 1684734.0 | 1687647.0 | 1629112.0 | 1617861.33 |
| Gasoline Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 220819.0 | 214422.0 | 214603.0 | 222428.33 |
| Distillate Stocks (Thousand Barrels) | 116788.0 | 114286.0 | 118100.0 | 118348.33 |
International Price Analysis
International Price Summary
Brent crude (FEB 26) settled at $61.94, change $-0.55. WTI crude (JAN 26) settled at $58.25, change $-0.63. The Brent-WTI spread is currently $3.69 (Brent premium of $3.69). The Brent-WTI spread reflects differences in global vs. U.S. supply/demand dynamics, geopolitics, and transportation costs.
Brent Crude
$61.94
0.55
(FEB 26)
WTI Crude
$58.25
0.63
(JAN 26)
Brent-WTI Spread
$3.69
Brent premium of $3.69
OPEC Analysis
World Demand 2025
105.14
million barrels/day
Demand Growth 2025/24
+1.30%
year-over-year
World Demand Comparison (2025 vs 2026)
Regional Demand Breakdown
Quarterly Trends (2025-2026)
Supply-Demand Balance
China Oil Demand Trend
India Oil Demand Trend
United States Oil Demand Trend
Economic Growth vs Oil Demand
Year-over-Year Market Analysis
OPEC Countries Production
Data Sources Used:
World Demand
Supply Balance
China Data
India Data
US Data
Economic Growth
World Demand
105.14
mb/d
+1.30%
OECD / Non-OECD
OECD:
45.97
Non-OECD:
59.17
Asia Giants
China:
16.86
India:
5.66
Supply Gap
42.47
mb/d
DoC Required
OPEC Market Analysis
Market At a Glance
The oil market is currently navigating a complex landscape characterized by a modest demand growth forecast of 1.3 mb/d for 2025. Supply from non-DoC countries is expected to increase by 0.9 mb/d, leading to a demand-supply gap of 42.4 mb/d for DoC crude. OPEC's production decisions will be crucial in addressing this imbalance as global economic growth remains stable.
Today's Critical Numbers
- World oil demand: 105.1 mb/d in 2025
- OECD oil demand growth: +0.1 mb/d
- Non-OECD oil demand growth: +1.2 mb/d
- China's demand forecast: 4.8% growth for 2025
- India's demand forecast: 6.5% growth for 2025
Supply vs Demand Gap Analysis
- Current gap size in mb/d: 42.4 mb/d for DoC crude
- Regions driving the deficit: Primarily driven by demand in the non-OECD regions, particularly China and India
- Implications for OPEC: OPEC may need to adjust production levels to stabilize prices and meet the growing demand, especially from emerging economies.
Regional Powerhouses
- China's demand trajectory: Expected to grow by 4.8% in 2025, reflecting a strong recovery in consumption.
- India's growth story: Anticipated growth of 6.5% in 2025, indicating robust demand driven by economic expansion.
- Americas' resilience: The US continues to show strong export capabilities, with crude exports reaching an eight-month high.
- Europe's challenges: Facing stagnant demand growth, which may impact overall oil consumption in the region.
What's Next
- 2025-2026 outlook: Global oil demand is projected to grow by 1.4 mb/d in 2026, with stable economic growth supporting this trend.
- Risks and opportunities: Potential risks include geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns, while opportunities lie in increasing demand from Asia.
- Market-moving factors to watch: OPEC production decisions, global economic indicators, and changes in refining margins.
Key Takeaways
- Most surprising data point: The demand for DoC crude is revised down by 0.1 mb/d, highlighting potential oversupply concerns.
- Biggest risk factor: Geopolitical tensions that could disrupt supply chains and impact global oil prices.
- Opportunity area: Increased demand from India and China presents a significant growth opportunity for OPEC producers.
- Strategic recommendation: OPEC should consider strategic production adjustments to align with the evolving demand landscape.
Americas
25.34 mb/d
China
16.86 mb/d
India
5.66 mb/d
Asia Pacific
9.78 mb/d
Europe
13.51 mb/d
Middle East
8.96 mb/d
CFTC CoT Analysis
Sentiment:
Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning:
Normal Range
Report Date:
2025-11-10
Managed Money
-11,646
Change: -19,383
-0.6% of OI
Producer/Merchant
271,318
Change: -5,898
14.2% of OI
Swap Dealers
-343,202
Change: +18,440
-17.9% of OI
Open Interest
1,913,442
Change: -10,885
Summary Analysis:
CFTC Commitment of Traders Report (Disaggregated) as of 2025-11-10
Crude Oil Positioning (WTI-PHYSICAL - NYMEX):
Open Interest: 1,913,442 contracts (-10,885)
Managed Money Net Position: -11,646 contracts (-0.6% of OI)
Weekly Change in Managed Money Net: -19,383 contracts
Producer/Merchant Net Position: 271,318 contracts
Swap Dealer Net Position: -343,202 contracts
Market Sentiment (based on Managed Money): Bearish and Strengthening
Positioning Analysis (Managed Money): Normal Range
Key Takeaways:
- Managed Money traders are large speculators, often driving price trends in Crude Oil.
- Producer/Merchant positions primarily reflect hedging activity.
- Swap Dealers act as intermediaries.
- Extreme positioning by Managed Money can indicate potential market reversals.
- CFTC data reports positions as of the report date, usually released each Friday.
About Disaggregated CoT Reports:
The Disaggregated CoT report provides a more detailed breakdown of futures market open interest.
It categorizes traders into: Producer/Merchant/Processor/User (Commercials), Swap Dealers, Managed Money (Speculators), and Other Reportables.
News Analysis
Market Sentiment Overview
BEARISH
Average Polarity:
-0.4
Confidence:
1.0
Articles Analyzed:
59
Last Updated:
2025-12-11 00:04:58
Commodity Sentiment
CRUDE_OIL
-0.4
Top News Topics
Supply (3 articles)
- Crude Oil Prices Weakens on Oversupply Concerns Barchart
- Crude Oil Extends Downturn on Ample Supply Trading Economics
- Oil Oversupply to Show Up As Waterborne Stocks Land — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Demand (1 articles)
Infrastructure (4 articles)
Geopolitical (4 articles)
- Oil Prices Fall; Ukraine-Russia Peace Talks, Fed Meeting in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Falls 1% With Russia-Ukraine in Focus — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Soybean Price Support in 2026 Rests on Biofuels Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
- Oil Steadies With Focus on Geopolitical Risks, Fed Policy — Market Talk Dow Jones Newswires
Economic Analysis
Economic Sentiment Summary
POSITIVE - Economic indicators generally supportive
Dollar Impact:
Weaker USD may support commodity prices
Industrial Demand:
Strong industrial demand signals
Interest Rate Impact:
Rising rates may impact energy demand
Risk Sentiment:
Low market volatility/risk appetite
Economic Indicators
USD_INDEX
98.68
Daily:
-0.54 (-0.54%)
Weekly:
-0.31 (-0.31%)
US_10Y
4.16
Daily:
-0.02 (-0.53%)
Weekly:
0.06 (1.36%)
SP500
6886.68
Daily:
46.17 (0.67%)
Weekly:
29.56 (0.43%)
VIX
15.77
Daily:
-1.16 (-6.85%)
Weekly:
-0.01 (-0.06%)
GOLD
4240.8
Daily:
34.1 (0.81%)
Weekly:
29.0 (0.69%)
COPPER
5.38
Daily:
0.14 (2.61%)
Weekly:
0.09 (1.63%)
Fibonacci Analysis
Current Price:
$58.42
Closest Support:
$56.35
3.54% below current price
Closest Resistance:
$58.73
0.53% above current price
Fibonacci Retracement Levels
0.0
$56.35
Support
0.236
$58.73
Resistance
0.382
$60.2
0.5
$61.38
0.618
$62.57
0.786
$64.27
1.0
$66.42
Fibonacci Extension Levels
1.272
$69.16
1.618
$72.64
2.0
$76.49
2.618
$82.71
ML Price Prediction
Current Price:
$58.41
Forecast Generated:
2025-12-11 00:05:03
Next Trading Day:
DOWN 0.2%
| Date | Prediction | Lower Bound | Upper Bound |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | $58.29 | $56.63 | $59.96 |
| 2025-12-12 | $58.4 | $56.74 | $60.06 |
| 2025-12-13 | $58.52 | $56.86 | $60.18 |
| 2025-12-14 | $58.54 | $56.88 | $60.2 |
| 2025-12-15 | $58.55 | $56.89 | $60.21 |
ML Insights
- Forecast generated using ARIMA(5, 1, 0).
- The model predicts a price decrease of ~0.20% for the next trading day (2025-12-11), reaching $58.29.
- The 5-day forecast suggests relatively stable prices between 2025-12-11 and 2025-12-15.
- The average confidence interval width is ~5.7% of the predicted price, indicating model uncertainty.
- SIGNAL: Bearish signal, moderate uncertainty.
AI Analysis
For Energy Traders:
The current bearish sentiment in the market, reflected by a sentiment score of -0.400, indicates potential downward pressure on prices. The Brent-WTI spread currently at $3.69 suggests ongoing differences in supply dynamics between global and U.S. markets.
Traders should watch for support levels around $60.00 for WTI and $63.00 for Brent, with potential resistance levels at $65.00 for WTI and $66.00 for Brent. The continued bearish positioning of managed money traders, with a net position of -11,646 contracts, may lead to increased volatility and short-term trading opportunities.
For Producers (Oil & Gas Companies):
The decrease in crude oil prices and the drop in OPEC Reference Basket value to $65.20/b necessitate a reevaluation of production planning and hedging strategies. The current market conditions, with bearish sentiment and a decrease in DoC crude production, suggest a cautious approach to capital expenditures.
Additionally, the rise in OECD commercial inventories, which are 37.7 mb higher than last year, could impact pricing power. Producers may want to consider adjusting production levels to align with ongoing demand forecasts, which remain stable but indicate limited growth, particularly in the OECD markets.
For Consumers (Industrial/Refineries/Transportation):
Consumers should prepare for potential fluctuations in input costs, particularly with WTI trading at $60.07/b and Brent at $63.95/b. The risks associated with supply reliability are heightened by geopolitical tensions and fluctuating inventory levels, especially with the bearish sentiment surrounding crude oil.
Additionally, the improvements in refining margins due to lower crude prices may provide an opportunity for consumers to negotiate better procurement terms. However, the decline in U.S. crude imports to 5.6 mb/d should be monitored closely, as it could affect product availability and pricing in the near term.
For Commodity Professionals (Analysts, Consultants):
The Crude Oil market currently exhibits a complex interplay of factors. The bearish sentiment is reinforced by falling prices, with the OPEC Reference Basket down to $65.20/b. Key drivers include stable global economic growth forecasts and a slight increase in oil demand, yet oversupply concerns persist, particularly highlighted by the negative sentiment surrounding supply dynamics.
The market's balance remains tenuous, with managed money positioning indicating a bearish outlook. Analysts should focus on the implications of rising inventories and geopolitical factors that could shift market dynamics. Continuous monitoring of production adjustments and demand forecasts will be critical in anticipating market movements.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult with